Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[matty007]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Ecm out to day 5...the heat is on... Just where and how intense is open to debate.... 30-35c surely... 

I'm still saying that the June record will go on Friday, probably upper 35c to lower 36c.

You know what they say....

[mb018538]

ECM looks the best of the lot tonight - 20c uppers still well across the SE by the middle of Saturday, giving a real chance of the June record. If we can’t beat it after a couple of hot and dry days with a direct southerly feed of record breaking warm air, then when can we?!

[Don]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

If we can’t beat it after a couple of hot and dry days with a direct southerly feed of record breaking warm air, then when can we?!

We almost certainly will under those conditions.

[Frosty.]

Again, whatever 2m max temps are achieved towards the end of this week, the Ecm 12z operational with its +20-22 T850's will be memorable!!

Edited June 24, 2019 by Jon Snow

[knocker]

Ecm surface charts Frid/Sat and max temps

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Again, whatever 2m temps are achieved, the Ecm 12z operational with its +20-22 T850's will be memorable!!

24 in the SW at T96 - I can't remember many occasions the 20c isotherm graced our shores, let alone this....whatever happens it's an exceptional spell of weather!

I hope by about Wednesday well have a clearer idea on the 2m temperature issue.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

24 in the SW at T96 - I can't remember many occasions the 20c isotherm graced our shores, let alone this....whatever happens it's an exceptional spell of weather!

Indeed mike, I forgot all about the southwest..sorry sidney and sidney junior..my bad!

Incredible charts!

Edited June 24, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

That's more like it from the Navgem, the 2m temps are better, and wow... Just take a look at the temps across the water in France! Let's just pull in a slight S/SEtly... Totally merveilleux!!! 

[mb018538]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

Ecm surface charts Frid/Sat and max temps

Now who shall we believe here....the ecm raw data with its silly 26c maxima or Friday, or the met office more realistic 33c?

[Mike Poole]

While rightly most of the focus is on the plume, it is worth an eye on the later evolution, and ECM 12z is not the only run by any means that builds in an Azores ridge once plume fun is over....T216 and T240:

[knocker]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Now who shall we believe here....the ecm raw data with its silly 26c maxima or Friday, or the met office more realistic 33c?

I'll assume that's rhetorical

[mb018538]

Fantastic ECM out to day 9 and 10 too....high pressure re-asserting itself in time for my birthday!  

[northwestsnow]

EC very nice by day 9 /10 tonight with the Azores high ridging in.

Edited June 24, 2019 by northwestsnow

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

While rightly most of the focus is on the plume, it is worth an eye on the later evolution, and ECM 12z is not the only run by any means that builds in an Azores ridge once plume fun is over....T216 and T240:

I agree!  As much as I am looking forward to record breaking plumes, a favourable ECM chart at 240hrs pleases me a lot more!

GEFS at 240hrs paints a similar story.

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'll assume that's rhetorical

Not so sure what to believe after seeing the projected EC temps, TBH i don't really care if its 26 or 31- it will still be warm

[Frosty.]

Add the Gem 12z to the list of models showing the azores ridge / high building in from later next week!!!!!!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Add the Gem 12z to the list of models showing the azores ridge / high building in from later next week!!!!!!!

Yes that offers support to EC det, i'm a little wary if i'm honest- not convinced the models have a handle on day 7 onwards, i would be delighted if GEM/EC are on the ball though

[matty007]

This is a peach from the JMA on Friday. Massive pool of high pressure over us and a very southerly flow.

Edited June 24, 2019 by matty007

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Now who shall we believe here....the ecm raw data with its silly 26c maxima or Friday, or the met office more realistic 33c?

 

Funny enough after I had posted my quick answer to that question I was reminded of quite a few occasions in the past when I have defended the METO take on forecast temps against people who were saying I expect they will change their minds once they have seen the latest runs. As if. But of course on those occasions the models strongly favored what people wanted. I mean,,,,,,can you actually believe that

[northwestsnow]

Just now, matty007 said:

This is a peach from the JMA on Friday. Massive pool of high pressure over us and a very southerly flow.

Think thats saturdays 12z matty

[matty007]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Think thats saturdays 12z matty

Oooh so it is.

Here it is. Just look at that high pressure and southerly

[Methuselah]

I'm beginning to think that it's us who're going to be wrong...When heat (or snow, in the case of winter) is in doubt, give the NAVGEM a shout?

[matty007]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm beginning to think that it's us who're going to be wrong...When heat (or snow, in the case of winter) is in doubt, give the NAVGEM a shout?

Oh yes sir

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm beginning to think that it's us who're going to be wrong...When heat (or snow, in the case of winter) is in doubt, give the NAVGEM a shout?

Or if you're really desperate..the JMA..on second thoughts!

[matty007]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Or if you're really desperate..the JMA..on second thoughts!

ICON always tends to give me the most salivation.