Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Polar Maritime]

It's going to be hot for a couple of days especially in the S/E next week, How hot to the 'degree' is v difficult at this range and with umpteen models runs over the next few days it's all rather academic at this range, Keeping in mind the North will be much cooler and unsettled at times..

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 0z operational, Monday looks very warm and humid, Tuesday looks hot and humid, Wednesday looks hot and humid, Thursday looks hot and humid, Friday looks hot and humid further e / se..preety good in my opinion and it's not a nw / se split either, it's nationwide heat for most of next week!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited July 19, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Scorcher]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Hardly downplaying when you've literally said the same thing I said in the quoting post..

Eh? Have you actually read what I've written? You seemed to think that people were expecting 40C. 35C is still exceptional in the UK in my book. Only a small number of years have reached 35C and it looks very possible this week.

Honestly how often does the 20C isotherm visit our shores? Pretty exceptional to me.

[SizzlingHeat]

14 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

One or two members seemed pretty confident about it..

I was commenting on the 12z ECM. If something like that was to verify, then a a shot at 40c was possible. Nobody said it was going to happen, just discussing what was being shown at the time. Unlikely to happen and everybody knew it was an outlier from the onset, but doesn't prevent those talking about what could have been if the synoptics aligned as of the ECM last night.

As it happens, its backed down again this morning which was entirely expected. Still...low possibly mid thirties quite widely for 2, possibly 3 days next week as was the overall consensus barring the extreme ECM last night.

Nobody saw the ECM and said 'its going to be 40c next week' it was just a discussion on one run on one model, which showed the synoptics we would need to push that threshold.

[mushymanrob]

weds/thurs look increasingly overcast, and becoming wetter as the heatwave breaks down. mon/tues look great for most, but weds/thurs look humid, rather cloudy with heavy thundery showers.

the anomaly charts (noaa) have never supported a lengthy settled (therefore hot) spell, as they consistently retain a mean upper southwesterly over the uk, slight ridging to our east, shallow troughing to our west.

[Djdazzle]

If anything you’re both downplaying it. 32C isn’t in doubt. It’s how much higher we can get.

[Man With Beard]

ECM "raw" maximums for next week are: Monday 28C, Tuesday 29C, Wednesday 34C, Thursday 32C. After usual upward adjustments, you'd get 30-32C as the potential top figure for Monday, 31-33C for Tuesday, 36-38C for Wednesday, and 34-36C for Thursday. (Source: weather.us)

If anyone thinks this "upward adjustment" is ramping, please go back to the thread on the June event and check a prediction I made based on the ECM raw data just before the event using the same technique, which turned out spot on several days in a row. This upward adjustment during hot weather is just what many of us have noticed over the last year and a half. 

 

Edited July 19, 2019 by Man With Beard

[Djdazzle]

17 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

weds/thurs look increasingly overcast, and becoming wetter as the heatwave breaks down. mon/tues look great for most, but weds/thurs look humid, rather cloudy with heavy thundery showers.

the anomaly charts (noaa) have never supported a lengthy settled (therefore hot) spell, as they consistently retain a mean upper southwesterly over the uk, slight ridging to our east, shallow troughing to our west.

A bit of a negative slant on things. I think that the west will see increasing cloud as Wednesday progresses, but very hot and sunny in th east. Thursday still up for grabs.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM "raw" maximums for next week are: Monday 28C, Tuesday 29C, Wednesday 34C, Thursday 32C. After usual upward adjustments, you'd get 30-32C as the potential top figure for Monday, 31-33C for Tuesday, 36-38C for Wednesday, and 34-36C for Thursday. 

 

Is that from the 00z run?

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Is that from the 00z run?

Yes. A "downgrade" from the 12Z, amazingly! 

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes. A "downgrade" from the 12Z, amazingly! 

If that's a downgrade, it just show how ludicrous the 12z was!

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM "raw" maximums for next week are: Monday 28C, Tuesday 29C, Wednesday 34C, Thursday 32C. After usual upward adjustments, you'd get 30-32C as the potential top figure for Monday, 31-33C for Tuesday, 36-38C for Wednesday, and 34-36C for Thursday. (Source: weather.us)

If anyone thinks this "upward adjustment" is ramping, please go back to the thread on the June event and check a prediction I made based on the ECM raw data just before the event using the same technique, which turned out spot on several days in a row. This upward adjustment during hot weather is just what many of us have noticed over the last year and a half. 

 

That's hot even for the Spanish!!

EC is a lovely run IMHO- sunshine heat and hopefully, some decent thunderstorms - does anyone have access to reliable cape values for mid week or is it a little far out to take too seriously?

[Captain Shortwave]

Some sort of consensus this morning. Tuesday and Wednesday look good for hot or very hot conditions. Thursday is more uncertain as we see a front move east but the ECM would give another very hot day.

looking further ahead, that ridge to the east looks quite robust so every chance that we could see further heat if it remains, the ECM tries to pull the ridge back in week 2, albeit with less insane levels of heat on offer.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Some sort of consensus this morning. Tuesday and Wednesday look good for hot or very hot conditions. Thursday is more uncertain as we see a front move east but the ECM would give another very hot day.

looking further ahead, that ridge to the east looks quite robust so every chance that we could see further heat if it remains, the ECM tries to pull the ridge back in week 2, albeit with less insane levels of heat on offer.

Its a very hot run mon/tues look sizzling Captain!

I'm becoming intrigued by the storm potential wed- could we see some fireworks???!!!

[knocker]

All very pointless at thus range but possible convective and frontal activity Tues/Weds and Thursday

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

All very pointless at thus range but possible convective and frontal activity Tues/Weds and Thursday

From an imby point of view I hope that’s about right - I might squeeze an extra hot day in on Thursday before it all goes bang! Some epic storms could be on the way folks, that’s what everyone wants right?

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

All very pointless at thus range but possible convective and frontal activity Tues/Weds and Thursday

Do you have any thoughts on thunderstorm potential Knocker? 

Its a subject i'm even less knowledgable on  than other aspects of meteorology -

As you say, probably academic at this range but shirely the potential is there.

[northwestsnow]

Mean out to 120 looks really warm- 

edit- mean is really good right to day 10- 

Edited July 19, 2019 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Do you have any thoughts on thunderstorm potential Knocker? 

Its a subject i'm even less knowledgable on  than other aspects of meteorology -

As you say, probably academic at this range but shirely the potential is there.

Only what I have already mentioned over the last couple of days, en passant, that the scenario has all the potential of a classic Spanish Plume and thus storms

Very warm air pushing north from the Spanish plateau on a southerly airflow. This can happen at almost any time of year but during the summer months the extra warmth and moisture lead to increased energy available for storm development

Cooler air at height advancing from the west associated with upper troughs or cold fronts

Strong summer sunshine heating air at and near the surface across France and the UK

Courtesy METO

 

Edited July 19, 2019 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

58 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM "raw" maximums for next week are: Monday 28C, Tuesday 29C, Wednesday 34C, Thursday 32C. After usual upward adjustments, you'd get 30-32C as the potential top figure for Monday, 31-33C for Tuesday, 36-38C for Wednesday, and 34-36C for Thursday. (Source: weather.us)

If anyone thinks this "upward adjustment" is ramping, please go back to the thread on the June event and check a prediction I made based on the ECM raw data just before the event using the same technique, which turned out spot on several days in a row. This upward adjustment during hot weather is just what many of us have noticed over the last year and a half. 

 

BBC raw has 34 Wed Gravesend Kent with a feel like of 39 , ouch!

 

[mb018538]

ECM op this morning much closer to the mean and more likely to happen. There are still a few members that look more like eh 12z op last night, but it appears that the Thursday-ish breakdown looks like the form horse.

Also nice to see a quick rise in mean slp after the low arrives:

 

[Paul]

Locking this one now, fresh thread here: