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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
3 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

UKV take on Mon/Tue temps.

611167155_viewimage(44).thumb.png.aa6ce727d32bb649f98386e50743924b.png547085836_viewimage(43).thumb.png.fc8f91926361a13557bc7510e9ec7b8f.png1830009527_viewimage(45).thumb.png.7eb45dd2fd695834a6eb203eb1558560.png

Massive downgrade of temps at D7-D10 on the GFS 18Z. Temps down 10-14C on the forecast for the period Wednesday 24th July to Friday July 26th 2019. I predict it will be a two day heatwave then back to average. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
3 minutes ago, knocker said:

The movement of the upper trough and energy distribution, and subsequently the ridge, are paramount of the next couple of days and according to the gfs it goes like this

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-3969600.thumb.png.35f8f75414fbb4ba2fcb8574b1925ee9.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-4056000.thumb.png.d682ebdc97d0c065663f809deb242903.pnggfs-nhemi-z300_speed-4056000.thumb.png.5ada15c0a29189e2858d56da6ffc60a0.png

Thus on the surface frontal activity and cooler air will push slowly in from the west with the possibly of a classic Spanish Plume scenario whilst the the south east remains very warm

gfs-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-4066800.thumb.png.a9e90a727e4c354bed2a73143d0849c2.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-4077600.thumb.png.331cc4224be116fb8ca03dd52a451cdb.png

Yes as i thought its going to be a one or two day warm spell then it gets swept away! its a repeat of June - predictions of temps in the high 30s and low 40s feels like temps are washed away as we get nearer the event! Cold Front will sweep the heat away from all but London and the South East by Thursday am. 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Temps at this range is/was never a done deal, And agree it was always only a couple of days with said max temps for the South..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, NApplewhite said:

Yes as i thought its going to be a one or two day warm spell then it gets swept away! its a repeat of June - predictions of temps in the high 30s and low 40s feels like temps are washed away as we get nearer the event! Cold Front will sweep the heat away from all but London and the South East by Thursday am. 

Well, its warm sun mon tues wed and thur so not sure what you mean with the 1to2 day warm spell.

Then again maybe my description of warm is different to yours.

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

Temps at this range is/was never a done deal, And agree it was always only a couple of days with said max temps for the South..

A nice day on Tuesday but then look at the Jetstream by Friday! 

hgt300.png

h500slp21KCK03S.png

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1 minute ago, NApplewhite said:

Yes as i thought its going to be a one or two day warm spell then it gets swept away! its a repeat of June - predictions of temps in the high 30s and low 40s feels like temps are washed away as we get nearer the event! Cold Front will sweep the heat away from all but London and the South East by Thursday am. 

? GFS has four consecutive very warm/hot days for many central, southern and eastern areas next week? @knocker's charts show mid to high 20s widely on Thursday afternoon. I'd say this is far from being similar to the June hot spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
12 minutes ago, Onding said:

? GFS has four consecutive very warm/hot days for many central, southern and eastern areas next week? @knocker's charts show mid to high 20s widely on Thursday afternoon. I'd say this is far from being similar to the June hot spell.

Mid-high 20's is hardly exceptional, though. Just an average summer "warm" spell. Tuesday looks to be the peak with the highest chance of temperatures getting into the low 30's, perhaps a chance on Wednesday too providing we see slower movement of the cold front bringing fresher air in from the west, south-east has the highest chance of holding onto the heat for a day longer.

Certainly none of this "40c" nonsense that was being thrown around last night.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Mid-high 20's is hardly exceptional, though. Just an average summer "warm" spell. Tuesday looks to be the peak with the highest chance of temperatures getting into the low 30's, perhaps a chance on Wednesday too providing we see slower movement of the cold front bringing fresher air in from the west, south-east has the highest chance of holding onto the heat for a day longer.

Certainly none of this "40c" nonsense that was being thrown around last night.

I agree high 20s is not out of the ordinary...

Can ECM pull a bunny out of the hat and replicate the 12Z?

Personally, with the 00z runs on show so far, i very much doubt it.

For me mid to high 20s is plenty warm enough, thats just my opinion though.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

There is a fair bit of chat across the pond about the unusual strength of the north Pacific jet for the time of year. So one mustn't forget the knock on effect of this downstream

gfs-namer-z250_speed-3494400.thumb.png.ed007fde5a124f27533e7392170763f7.pnggfs-namer-z250_speed-3678000.thumb.png.cf16eb55f9e018ec2b1829eae2007c3c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing

Next week yet to be decided better idea tomorrow, people can’t just take one gfs run, Tuesday Wednesday def hot, now let’s see what ecm has to say and later runs today 

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12 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Mid-high 20's is hardly exceptional, though. Just an average summer "warm" spell. Tuesday looks to be the peak with the highest chance of temperatures getting into the low 30's, perhaps a chance on Wednesday too providing we see slower movement of the cold front bringing fresher air in from the west, south-east has the highest chance of holding onto the heat for a day longer.

Certainly none of this "40c" nonsense that was being thrown around last night.

I'd call high 20s very warm, perhaps even hot (though I think 30C needs to be touched for that). Certainly away from the far SE anyway, which the vast majority of the country is 

People were quite entitled to comment on the incredible ECM outlier last night though. It was a run for the archives and I don't think for a moment any one seriously believed it'd verify that way  The chances of it doing so are low, but not impossible.

It's not a one day wonder like @NApplewhite is pushing for 

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
23 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Mid-high 20's is hardly exceptional, though. Just an average summer "warm" spell. Tuesday looks to be the peak with the highest chance of temperatures getting into the low 30's, perhaps a chance on Wednesday too providing we see slower movement of the cold front bringing fresher air in from the west, south-east has the highest chance of holding onto the heat for a day longer.

Certainly none of this "40c" nonsense that was being thrown around last night.

I think chat of 40c is always far fetched for the UK and Ireland but the ECM op last night was very extreme and the chat of such a high temperature was merited in the context of model discussion. 

London for example will easily hit the low 30’s on Tuesday and Wednesday. (Thursday hard to call currently as you say)

Three day plume with temperatures in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s maybe across large parts of the UK and Ireland plus quite a good chance of some intense thunderstorms. 

I will bank that all day long anytime in Summer. 

Tuesday the hottest day as you say - add a couple of degrees to this GFS chart? 

3B207BFE-2358-4078-BD93-17330B61EDA7.thumb.png.ff84efcdf5349118b57d4b1364315094.png

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 minute ago, clark3r said:

Next week yet to be decided better idea tomorrow, people can’t just take one gfs run, Tuesday Wednesday def hot, now let’s see what ecm has to say and later runs today 

For all of the UK?

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Again so much inter run inconsistency - GFS Ops still appears to pretty quick in blasting away the heat into Wednesday. UKMO appears to hold off the onslaught from the Atlantic and appears to be the most backed of the models so far this morning. Both GFS and GEM leave us with a horrid setup this time next with low pressure firmly in change. Would think in the next 24hr the challenges with getting the position and strength of the Atlantic jet should become better resolved which is effectively creating the wild swings between runs. 

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
43 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Mid-high 20's is hardly exceptional, though. Just an average summer "warm" spell. Tuesday looks to be the peak with the highest chance of temperatures getting into the low 30's, perhaps a chance on Wednesday too providing we see slower movement of the cold front bringing fresher air in from the west, south-east has the highest chance of holding onto the heat for a day longer.

Certainly none of this "40c" nonsense that was being thrown around last night.

Forgive me, but was anyone actually saying that 40c was likely? I don’t think so. People were merely stating that 40c was possible based on the ECM 12z op run, which we all know had/has a small chance of verifying. 

You seem fixated on that.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I don’t think anyone really thought we’d see 40c - the models better aligned today, back to what we expect to happen, with the heat being shunted away after midweek. It’s still going to be a 3/4 day blast of heat with temperatures hitting the low 30s, if that isn’t good enough for people then I suggest they move to Seville or even somewhere like Dalol where it’s 45c every day!

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

There is some serious tosh being posted on here today. Apart from the silly ECM 12z, nothing has changed from last night. Mid 30s looking on the cards in the SE.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
12 minutes ago, danm said:

Forgive me, but was anyone actually saying that 40c was likely? I don’t think so. People were merely stating that 40c was possible based on the ECM 12z op run, which we all know had/has a small chance of verifying. 

You seem fixated on that.

One or two members seemed pretty confident about it..

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

One or two members seemed pretty confident about it..

They weren’t. They were commenting on that one run. 40C would have been a possibility. Let’s move on!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
58 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Mid-high 20's is hardly exceptional, though. Just an average summer "warm" spell. Tuesday looks to be the peak with the highest chance of temperatures getting into the low 30's, perhaps a chance on Wednesday too providing we see slower movement of the cold front bringing fresher air in from the west, south-east has the highest chance of holding onto the heat for a day longer.

Certainly none of this "40c" nonsense that was being thrown around last night.

Here we go, the usual downplaying of hot spells. It happens every time we get any heat!

Tuesday and Wednesday are looking noteworthy to say the least- we will probably exceed 30C here in North West England, possibly on both days and we could see 32C+ which certainly doesn't happen every summer.

There were a number of years in between 2007 and 2012 when we didn't reach 28C in the entire summer here so this is certainly something to savour.

I also think it's far too early to rule out any seriously high temps yet- there are some exceptional uppers being shown for the South from Tuesday onwards.

 

 

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ECM obviously nowhere near last nights Ops run, doesn’t clear the 15c isotherm until very late Thursday and seems to tie in well with UKMO overall position suggesting Wednesday will be a hot day (35c possible) and probably Thursday too. Majority of the GFS ensembles bring in the cool late on Thursday as well so maybe slightly better consensus with all things considered this morning?  

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Here we go, the usual downplaying of hot spells. It happens every time we get any heat!

Tuesday and Wednesday are looking noteworthy to say the least- we will probably exceed 30C here in North West England, possibly on both days and we could see 32C+ which certainly doesn't happen every summer.

There were a number of years in between 2007 and 2012 when we didn't reach 28C in the entire summer here so this is certainly something to savour.

I also think it's far too early to rule out any seriously high temps yet- there are some exceptional uppers being shown for the South from Tuesday onwards.

 

 

Hardly downplaying when you've literally said the same thing I said in the quoting post..

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