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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

No, it isn't. 

ecmwf-uk-t2m_c-4056000.thumb.png.4b616c4c2b99194ab4ffb1f94b7c9d9b.png

 

That’s a noon chart that’s not for max anyway. Just the temp at that precise time.

Typically a 3-5*C climb from noon to peak.

This solution would be very health-testing.

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
Just now, Singularity said:

That’s a noon chart that’s not for max anyway. Just the temp at that precise time.

Typically a 3-5*C climb from noon to peak.

This solution would be very health-testing.

Absolutely. I wouldn't bet against a 40c being breached by the Friday. Sunshine dependant. High 30s widely I would imagine

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

You could add some serious numbers to that with a setup like that ECM. 20-24c uppers in situ in peak summer. 

It wont be 34c believe me. 38-39c would be likely 

Indeed. Scary stuff and only a week away.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
12 minutes ago, knocker said:

In 12 hours?? That's a massive shift for an upper air chart

156.thumb.png.05ce36a8d78f2749aca430319c4852b8.png144.thumb.png.6f39903812479eddbd6c9d75ce8471c5.png

 

Quite right knocker - I mentioned this morning there was a small cluster of hotter and more anticyclonic runs on the ecm....looks like the 12z op has gone for this. Was in quite a small minority and will be massive massive hot outlier when the ensemble is available later. As amazing as it is, I’d urge extreme caution In thinking it will come off. It was about 20% chance earlier.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The difference between the latest ecm and previous starts very early at around T96.before proceeding to disrupt the trough I will be astonished if this evening's run is correct

ecmwf-nhemi-z300_speed-3796800.thumb.png.2932935e8a6f8d1ab684a5c75a9b1ff6.pngecmwf-nhemi-z300_speed-3883200.thumb.png.6f66b56cf0451d465c8635cc2e4150d6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Indeed. Scary stuff and only a week away.

Savage heat. Would be incredible. But it's only one of the options on the table this evening. 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Unbelievable ecm!not saying its gona be right but i think it will be closer to the mark than this evening gfs 12z op run!!in regards to the ensembles what a hot set they are!!expect gfs 18z to fall back in line towards euros later!!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
6 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Absolutely. I wouldn't bet against a 40c being breached by the Friday. Sunshine dependant. High 30s widely I would imagine

You're joking, right? 

Not. A. Chance. 36/37c possible on the back of the ECM op, but given it seems far more extreme than other models I'm willing to bet it's an outlier against it's ensembles. In any event, it can't really be taken seriously given the inconsistency in the past few runs & little support for that level of heat from other models.

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6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

This HAS to be an outlier, surely!

That’s what I keep thinking however there were a bunch of the ensembles from GFS that were similar.

its basically a repeat of Aug 03.

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

You're joking, right? 

Not. A. Chance. 36/37c possible on the back of the ECM op, but given it seems far more extreme than other models I'm willing to bet it's an outlier against it's ensembles. In any event, it can't really be taken seriously given the inconsistency in the past few runs & little support for that level of heat from other models.

Nobody’s saying it will happen the way the ECM shows. But if it did, you would be looking at upper 30s on that run.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

This is model watching heaven from the Ecm 12z operational if you love heat..hell if you don't !!!!

Epic!!!

96_thickuk.thumb.png.a6e823fdad68d009bbad2316d5788e80.png120_thickuk.thumb.png.85aa496fed667e3555f7bcd83410ad47.png120_mslp850.thumb.png.a3739640d84638374c040e27da7d2a74.png144_thickuk.thumb.png.ad01e997363a807e63f6cc32a38bf03e.png144_mslp850.thumb.png.d6d79d9fb5d8c54e65d3a924b10aa859.png168_thickuk.thumb.png.263a0f49a1ef4471b74ddfad69971b9b.png168_mslp850.thumb.png.4ce3fe47081a5820c9e61e8759300625.png168_thick.thumb.png.3e0a69b1806d1842f5b94e4d7d6abe43.png192_thickuk.thumb.png.44a099033c4e5e065ca0b894622923c1.png192_mslp850.thumb.png.7c6e25fdd8b40b9311e6e03dd50bdc32.png192_thick.thumb.png.75947e410a69c10b1235f97f5e4da113.png216_mslp850.thumb.png.384ad594dfa6d1716249f14010293987.png216_thickuk.thumb.png.e02f0bb2108d228cd42a8c4547715ab1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing

I have noticed last couple of days gfs, ecm, gem UKMO have been taking it in turns having heat up to mid thirties, it really feels something is brewing. Does remind me of 2003

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Nobody’s saying it will happen the way the ECM shows. But if it did, you would be looking at upper 30s on that run.

Yes, agreed. 

No real support from other models at the moment for that level of heat and I suspect it'll be an outlier or at least one of the warmest members against it's ensembles. At face value the ECM Op would bring very hot temperatures, probably close to record breaking, I agree. 

But, looking at all the other data it's certainly a lower probability for now.

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1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Yes, agreed. 

No real support from other models at the moment for that level of heat and I suspect it'll be an outlier or at least one of the warmest members against it's ensembles. At face value the ECM Op would bring very hot temperatures, probably close to record breaking, I agree. 

But, looking at all the other data it's certainly a lower probability for now.

I disagree there, 11 of the 20 GFS ensembles were above 20c at 850pha this time next week. The GFS Ops was a ‘cool’ outlier post Wednesday next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Alderc said:

I disagree there, 11 of the 20 GFS ensembles were above 20c at 850pha this time next week. The GFS Ops was a ‘cool’ outlier post Wednesday next week.

850hPa temperatures have little baring on surface temperatures. 

No GEFS member showed surface heat on par with the ECM run.

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Nobody’s saying it will happen the way the ECM shows. But if it did, you would be looking at upper 30s on that run.

I’m assuming this insane run will be a hot outlier. It’s been kicking out some crap recently. This morning’s effort was the exact opposite. 

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

ECMOPEU12_168_2.png

 

That's a 40C chart there. Wow.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The point of no return is only at the day 4/5 range, and it appears it is dependent on the weak ridge in the Atlantic stoping the jet stream pushing east long enough to sharpen and cut off the trough west of the UK. Note the UKMO actually gets pretty close but the jet breaks through in time to engage that low. Once that low cuts off, we already have the high in situ, so the question is how many ecm members go with this solution, it is is sizeable then the operational might not be the outlier we think it is (temperatures probably at the highest end).

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

 

But, looking at all the other data it's certainly a lower probability for now.

I've seen plenty of hot data today before this Ecm 12z run, the GEFS 12z indicates a scorcher next week..and ICON..UKMO GEM....etc..etc...!!!!:whistling:

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Just now, Met4Cast said:

850hPa temperatures have little baring on surface temperatures. 

No GEFS member showed surface heat on par with the ECM run.

They have a huge baring. Let's not go to the other extreme after that rare episode in June and say 850s mean nothing. Obviously they are not a perfect guide, but they are very useful especially when wind is coming from a landmass such as next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Nobody’s saying it will happen the way the ECM shows. But if it did, you would be looking at upper 30s on that run.

So for 72 hours most of the UK is covered by 20-23c uppers, slack southerly flow at the end of July (technically the prime time for high temperatures) There would be no doubt in my mind the all time high would be breached *if the ECM was correct* and a pretty decent chance of our 1st 40 degrees. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
32 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

That ECM.......... The one where the UK melts.

That quick cut off low just allows the heat to push further and further north. The 20c has reached Glasgow and Edinburgh by day 7 and the all time record has probably gone if that came off in a weeks time.

If this isn’t a hot outlier then someone has fired the ECM computer straight at the sun!!!

Yes now the excitement begins - last plume delivered up here in the West of Scotland. (25/26c for a few days and numerous great thunderstorms)

This one is a different beast! IF the ECM was to become reality Glasgow would be heading for the low 30’s temperature wise. (33c to break the record?)

None the less the charts are looking better by the day - expecting mid 20’s here at least and it should also go bang which makes for an even better Summer spell of weather for me personally!

Some bonkers temperatures predicted for the South currently - high 30’s would be quite a weather event! I love extremes in any season so it’s all very exciting! 

Bring on the heat and thunderstorms - it’s the perfect time of the year for both! ⛈☀️

Brilliant discussion/posts in here today.

Edited by Mr Frost
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