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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

There was me thinking you’d joined the hot crew!

ECM rolling . . .

Never! 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
35 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There are some incredible ensemble members breaching the 20c uppers threshold towards day 10. Would imagine the all time record would be under threat.

All hyperbole and conjecture at this stage, Crewe 

Seriously though this plume is predicted by the models to fall in exactly the period where it could have maximum impact, which for me is 10 days either side of the 1st August, I'm minded to downplay the FV3 in this afternoons runs as it doesn't fit with the other output, and has shown a bias towards pushing away the heat early for a number of runs recently.  Wonder what the ECM will say tonight?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Yesterday's Gem 12z said computer says NO..fair to say, today's doesnt!!

gem-0-96.thumb.png.a2397f478de2bbc9ff01cc500bc8d92d.pnggem-1-96.thumb.png.e233c937ac52b633788526c0ad5b6c0f.pnggem-0-120.thumb.png.65dee5852c6813c409d00c7787db61f2.pnggem-1-120.thumb.png.ea4ed256ccbc36b87340a770015665e3.pnggem-0-144.thumb.png.49f5ebfdd10f2276349151f1a358dd42.pnggem-1-144.thumb.png.d408bfe077b4cff1390874230764143c.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Hmm... so this ECM’s broken a secondary low away to the west of Iberia at +120... that’ll probably slide SE so it becomes a matter of how much and quickly it then pushes north.

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
23 hours ago, Singularity said:

ECM suddenly has no digging south of a secondary low west of Europe, just when FV3 finally produced it and UKMO took it further than the previous run.

Do you ever feel like we’re being trolled by the models? 

I don’t know... having no dig south at all seems a bit too far in the progressive direction, but no doubt the 00z ECM was at the other end of the spectrum. Strange how often these last few days the op has hung out at the limits instead of sitting nicely near the mean.

At least the other, least pleasant breakdown method via he jet firing straight into Europe has gone walkies - hopefully that one won’t be back.

What ECM shows this evening is a bit mediocre after Tue but could be much worse.

Will be interesting to see how this rolls out. @CreweCold fair play to you. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The 144 hr chart should be better than this mornings,there is a wider area of +20 uppers,so less margin for error.

12z                                                             06z

ECM0-120.thumb.gif.e049096e63fc2955f777d46252201dc8.gif ECM0-144.thumb.gif.3940de9152b8ca2b2a3579163083fb4e.gif

oh,slam dunk!!!

144

970942477_ECM0-144(1).thumb.gif.5069abefefede961902c60ff9df84f2a.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GEFS 12Zs would perhaps have been better had the op runs been on them? Och well!:oldgrin:

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Still a long way from being settled.

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

ECM toying with a serious heatwave. Where is that low going? Eyes down, look in. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T144 with a direct hit of the plume.  I'd rate the hotter solutions massively favourite at this point, over to the morning runs....

image.thumb.jpg.887c63c9080eeb0899adf02920bcef0d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8226c34c217ac17aedfb239a2fc1402b.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Looks like the trend today is to have things further west. A larger and further west wedge of 20’C+ uppers moving into the UK and taking longer to shunt east. Hope this trend continues and we don’t see the usual change to things being further east and shorter lived!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Temperatures into the low 30's quite comfortably by Tuesday/Wednesday on the ECM 

 

ecmwf-uk-t2m_c-3894000.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

T168, wow!

image.thumb.jpg.eac050ff29de2355dda6aa9f5c5a5d15.jpg

Does look a bit like Pinnochio's head though maybe it's lying?

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Woooaaaahhhh!!!!!

168

ECM0-168.thumb.gif.10e7c229332fd2b08947189bcd8399ac.gif

+20 getting up into the borders,Scotland would also join in this hot spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

That ECM.......... The one where the UK melts.

That quick cut off low just allows the heat to push further and further north. The 20c has reached Glasgow and Edinburgh by day 7 and the all time record has probably gone if that came off in a weeks time.

If this isn’t a hot outlier then someone has fired the ECM computer straight at the sun!!!

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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The ECM is just an absolute beast and would undoubtedly produce some of the highest temperatures even seen in the UK. 24c at 850pha into Cornwall and real done of heat over north west Europe.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM will be back in the furnace tonight - very different at T120

Good call! Astonishing heat on this run. Downright dastardly in fact 

The uncertainty around this event is truly immense. This run demonstrates that even the overall trough shape is far from clear.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
5 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

168 ECM that's your 100F breached and the all time record smashed!

ECMOPEU12_168_2.png

No, it isn't. 

ecmwf-uk-t2m_c-4056000.thumb.png.4b616c4c2b99194ab4ffb1f94b7c9d9b.png

 

Edited by Met4Cast
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

This is model watching heaven from the Ecm 12z operational if you love heat..hell if you don't !!!!

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
Just now, Met4Cast said:

No, it isn't. 

imageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eimageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eecmwf-uk-t2m_c-4056000.thumb.png.4b616c4c2b99194ab4ffb1f94b7c9d9b.png

ecmwf-uk-t2m_c-4056000.png

You could add some serious numbers to that with a setup like that ECM. 20-24c uppers in situ in peak summer. 

It wont be 34c believe me. 38-39c would be likely 

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