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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS 6z looks like a sizeable step towards the UKMO to me.

Models converging on a spell of very warm/hot (maybe very hot?) weather next week.

It seems that way, although not as clear cut at yesterdays ECM 00z heat, the models are shifting in a certain direction this morning. This for example is the last 4 runs from the GFS:

image.thumb.png.bee69144448915defa1e94c03d7eb202.pngimage.thumb.png.a16625babe85ff45b1ea6f6ba722b14e.pngimage.thumb.png.df86d856ac07d5c1f63583abd81c6e52.pngimage.thumb.png.86667b55c82d536c8f6bb3c286960c42.png    

                                   06Z                                                         00Z                                                 Yesterday 18z                                                Yesterday 12z

The centre of the block is shifting further south meaning we have more of a southerly flow. Whereas this time yesterday we could only say Tuesday would be hot with any confidence I think now we could throw Wednesday into the equation as well.

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
12 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Gfs 6z has raw data of 36c on Wednesday, add 2c on the record is seriously gonna be under threat. Wow

06_153_uk2mtmp.png

I’d restrain your excitement once Tuesday passes, GFS suggests torrential storms for days. You may wish to check out the precipitation charts.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational it's going to be feeling hot, hot, hot and humid next week..very impressive uppers, cape with thundery potential, temps into the high 20's / low 30's celsius..possibly mid 30's c is possible next week?

06_105_ukthickness850.thumb.png.a60845687beb755d665e388159a4f9fa.png06_129_ukthickness850.thumb.png.f7371b6870c35916b28d8648b2c96e1b.png06_129_mslp850.thumb.png.d0b1e202b330a350b8a12193774a2cb4.png06_132_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.c64b024718454c34e702ffab584d7075.png06_132_ukcape.thumb.png.90a57af30cb6ab31e98db77797b004a4.png06_153_ukthickness850.thumb.png.b6b46eb1f46cfaeb6258c02d64fab9b3.png06_153_mslp850.thumb.png.6c34c0680df13f4b0393ae4cf5d2bb14.png06_156_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.c22f12919eb136248ea0cc497eb0dbdd.png06_156_ukcape.thumb.png.851a732b70d5d6ba3de61c8bb8609e90.png06_177_ukthickness850.thumb.png.cdb583b081ab13a597bd4f0d3a23cb53.png06_177_mslp850.thumb.png.f817d501a3650115dfb6a5af9fc08077.png06_201_ukthickness850.thumb.png.1a310419a4bd5404e3f8667480a75000.png06_201_mslp850.thumb.png.731a7ac194c51cc615ce2a3d64527ad4.png06_204_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.affaebf5513616aa6535dea040d68e3b.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Things are still looking good, by next weekend!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all

The ECM this morning was uninspiring with a day of heat before a much more unsettled end to next week.

GFS 06Z Legacy has got one or two people hot under the collar and we'd be looking at a solid 48 hours of hot conditions across the south east with a rather shorter spell elsewhere and to be fair OP doesn't even manage that. 

As the HP transits east and tries to form a discrete cell to the east we do get a SSE flow but it's either quickly filled by the trough from the west so more cloud, storms and not as hot but very humid or the HP quickly moves off into Scandinavia and the trough takes over from the south (more of a classic plume).

Plenty of time for more attempts from the Azores HP to ridge NE but that pattern will always keep the hot air to the south - as the ridge advances and recedes there's no opportunity for the hot air to move up. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
15 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I’d restrain your excitement once Tuesday passes, GFS suggests torrential storms for days. You may wish to check out the precipitation charts.

But very warm and hot in the South East still.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Just to take a look at the precipitation for Friday in to the weekend... Tomorrow looking like a write off, plenty of showers around on Saturday before a big improvement on Sunday. 

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2019071800_34_18_155.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2019071800_58_18_155.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2019071800_85_18_155.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019071800_168.

Interesting clusters - number 3 much more anticyclonic, though in the minority.

By 192 hours there are so many different outcomes that it’s worthless looking beyond then. Breakdown with low pressure favoured, but by no means nailed on just yet. As @Man With Beard said earlier, a fair few ecm members keep the heat going a little bit longer.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019071800_192.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
29 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I’d restrain your excitement once Tuesday passes, GFS suggests torrential storms for days. You may wish to check out the precipitation charts.

I sometimes think people post what they want to happen on this forum, rather than what the models show. 

 

The GFS 6z suggests no such thing, in fact it keeps the SE warm and dry beyond next weekend. A NW/SE split on the cards perhaps? 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png

So the 06z provides a decent example of what seems to be, generally, the trough behaviour that produces some of the hottest results for Tue-Thu next week.

The key seems to be an elongation south-north without much in the way of independent spin-ups of low pressure taking place.

In other words, the trough remains very disorganised. 

This minimises the amount of push from the west, while potentially allowing a 'heat low' over NW Europe to dominate the flow across the UK for at least a day or two.


I reckon if we get that trough behaviour, the outcome could well be hotter and less unstable than the FV3 06z shows, as these heat lows are often deepened and moved north too readily.

Such a trough evolution is one of the most difficult to pin down, so no wonder the models are varying considerably.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Given the way the 06Z is panning-out, I'm feeling exceptionally clairvoyant, this morning: the operational T850s will be very-much at the warm side of the ensemble!:shok::oldgood:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Current look at the satellite and temps around the UK at mid day.... Usable shall we say!! Tomorrow gonna come as a shock to many... Luckily it won't be hanging around for to long. 

xx_sat-en-330-0_2019_07_18_11_05_18_131.png

xx_obs-en-330-0_2019_07_18_11_00_18_1.png

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11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Given the way the 06Z is panning-out, I'm feeling exceptionally clairvoyant, this morning: the operational T850s will be very-much at the warm side of the ensemble!:shok::oldgood:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

The Ops run never gets higher than 3rd or 4th from the ensemble suite and for no more than a 12-18hrs over the south early next week and through 24-28th July its right on the mean. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

My word there are some scorching GEFS 6z members next week..

1_180_850tmp.thumb.png.e94db04b74da6b2600da7446761c44da.png1_180_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.dee6c1b1c2a7ebbbd22c72f9156b42df.png1_204_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.b6806973d0b7ff0fd8b4188b2cb1670f.png1_204_850tmp.thumb.png.ed6b181c58638ce73150db048d94067a.png11_204_850tmp.thumb.png.61ab7131ac4ffc6cdd02d813c4aac4d7.png11_204_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.f38bc68c1ecf71783ec76a80c4a4763e.png11_228_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.93420449ecd354a57be190de1f6f3306.png11_180_850tmp.thumb.png.bdc9b44e24f2f3edc5488215561aab02.png11_180_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.1629e68b5bc4d462dbccbaa76a951654.png19_204_850tmp.thumb.png.9f6767247cb382600e4a1a63e5779f8f.png19_204_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.d7655b8cf7adf1458beeec3c42bd29e0.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The Ops run never gets higher than 3rd or 4th from the ensemble suite and for no more than a 12-18hrs over the south early next week and through 24-28th July its right on the mean. 

Trending well. Pushing the trough out to the west, which will be very welcome if it verifies. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Short ensembles   show  a very nice set of runs  The GFS Op not without support    temperatures here at least might breach 30c  going on this run   Warmer the further East and South. 

image.thumb.png.1e6797a73f38d2dd73b973b4948e1066.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Just a quick glance at the ECm extended pressure charts from Monday through till next month. 

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2019071500_84_18_149 (1).png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2019071500_240_18_149.png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2019071500_240_18_149 (1).png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2019071500_342_18_149.png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2019071500_510_18_149.png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2019071500_690_18_149.png

xx_weekly-en-330-0_modezwkly_2019071500_858_18_149.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
45 minutes ago, Downpour said:

I sometimes think people post what they want to happen on this forum, rather than what the models show. 

 

The GFS 6z suggests no such thing, in fact it keeps the SE warm and dry beyond next weekend. A NW/SE split on the cards perhaps? 

Precipitation charts from 135 hours onward look wet almost everywhere, makes little difference to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Things are still looking good, by next weekend!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

HGT500 has Natures Pyrotechnics all over it 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking further ahead..hopefully a summery start to August!!!!!!!!!!!

3_378_500mb.thumb.png.a27668213419b1f6f3f23c4b9ff29c5d.png4_372_500mb.thumb.png.e1c1b5b75b963369297b150d12dce8eb.png6_378_500mb.thumb.png.dd86dd74ea364f8c2299d1961ed9c5e1.png19_372_850tmp.thumb.png.1e219848fcf2937b8b49255eb3abf849.png19_372_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.226bc76b64b5e705fb8d2e2f52f0a6cc.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
23 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Precipitation charts from 135 hours onward look wet almost everywhere, makes little difference to me.

Nope. The 6z wants to keep the SE dry next weekend, following a midweek dousing. Nothing like "days of torrential storms", it shows no such thing. Now, it might not verify, but the model shows it to be largely dry.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Here are the GEFS 06Z ensembles...Spiffy, aren't they?

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

They also look (to me at least) to be more tightly bunched...And that, under the circumstances, is no bad thing!:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Just taken a look at the extended ensembles from ECM out to day 14...the mean stays around 20c into early August, and on a positive note there are quite a few members trending mid 20s...so not to bad 

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