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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

As @mb018538 points out, there are signs of a coming together in the models this morning in the D4-D6 range, but because of doubts over the intensity of the incoming low, I think the D7-D9 is far from resolved.

Again the new GFS/FV3 has done a good job picking the pattern at around D8-D10 - the ECM had not seen the ridge breaking to Scandi at all in this range. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I hope the ecm is off the scent at day 7-10....I’m off on holiday next Friday and it looks awful with low pressure becoming parked over the UK. It’ll be interesting to see the pressure ensemble and clusters later - I expect a host of different options will be there again. The second low coming in will be hard to resolve at this range.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I hope the ecm is off the scent at day 7-10....I’m off on holiday next Friday and it looks awful with low pressure becoming parked over the UK. It’ll be interesting to see the pressure ensemble and clusters later - I expect a host of different options will be there again. The second low coming in will be hard to resolve at this range.

The ECM has been awful past day 7 for ages now. Constantly coming up with outlier solutions. They must be scratching their heads about it.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ICON 0z looks better than yesterday's 12z with more of a direct hit for the dome of very warm uppers..temps next week could soar into the low 30's celsius in the S / SE.

icon-1-135.thumb.png.8ee2604676f7bfb0766db36d55b47300.pngicon-0-135.thumb.png.c8492edb1cb8e7293160680d91d62783.pngicon-1-156.thumb.png.0066957557bc54100b59e52d08c0f389.pngicon-0-156.thumb.png.6a28498f1bc41cd6be5568520ac5e4b7.png

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Good morning! Well looks like a very warm humid spell for next week but increasingly unsettled especially for southern Britain and if the models stick to there output this morning the news maker next week will be flooding issues over parts of the country which have not had much rain so far this month

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
14 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good morning! Well looks like a very warm humid spell for next week but increasingly unsettled especially for southern Britain and if the models stick to there output this morning the news maker next week will be flooding issues over parts of the country which have not had much rain so far this month

Really? Can you post a chart that implies flooding issues? 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

This morning's GEFS ensembles still show an awful lot of scatter!:shok: And the op, as has been the case for a while now, continues to flap between one extreme or the other---or both!

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Let's hope the other models start to show a little more consistency, past Day 7?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
32 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Really? Can you post a chart that implies flooding issues? 

Wednesday to Friday does show some heavier rain on both ECM & GFS in the south

GFS to Wednesday evening

us_model-en-999-0_modusa_2019071800_165_7523_157.thumb.png.b00aad007bfd1963eece1a548a214092.png

And then to Friday evening

us_model-en-999-0_modusa_2019071800_213_7523_157.thumb.png.f178c9bbeb9ea2be150ace3dd29adc83.png

ECM to Wednesday afternoon

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2019071800_162_7523_157.thumb.png.c37cc83483d765e243c182a17a895817.png

And then to Friday afternoon

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2019071800_210_7523_157.thumb.png.384e6e91101417f22df00299ef3a4686.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Insert other media.urlInsert other media.urlInsert other media.urlAs @mb018538 points out, there are signs of a coming together in the models this morning in the D4-D6 range, but because of doubts over the intensity of the incoming low, I think the D7-D9 is far from resolved.

Again the new GFS/FV3 has done a good job picking the pattern at around D8-D10 - the ECM had not seen the ridge breaking to Scandi at all in this range. 

Looking like a massive heatwave Monday to Thursday next week - GFS has 37 in Manchester and 40 degrees in Sheffield then temperatures plunging to 13 by D10 . Rain across London at the moment and turning fresher today 

Latest_Satellite_180719.PNG

Edited by NApplewhite
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 0z mean is absolutely on board with a very warm / hot spell next week, especially further s / e / se!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

41682569-4858-402E-8F63-66118D9A2D04.thumb.png.3778fdaae82cb55f8e1d04998c22fa52.png

43AF33B2-2EC9-4620-9D70-34F198B773B5.thumb.png.882b61c60a60d778b80fc8af0869fd61.png

 

As perhaps expected the ECM op run on the low side today - far too aggressive with the low pressure development at the end of the run, and below average temperature wise. It looks very likely that a breakdown will happen by the end of the week - just how unsettled it will be is open to debate.

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

What a massive improvement on both ukmo and ecm in regards to next weeks heatwave!!hotter uppers have backed west compared to 12z yesterday!!gfs continues to be consistant with temps around 30 degrees pretty much everyday for monday to friday!!ukmo looks dangerously.hot at 144 hours!!make the most of whatever rain we get over the next 24 to 36 hours cos after that we shall be relying on those big thunderstorms to water the gardens next week!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The ECM NH profiles, at 24, 120 and 240 look rather spiffing...:oldgood:

npsh500.024.pngnpsh500.120.pngnpsh500.240.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, knocker said:

I still haven't found out why it is I get different outputs to just about everyone else who posts. It's a never ending mystery And I'm wondering whether the stipend from the SE tourist boards has been increased recent;y

 

Yes - unfortunately this happens all the time, if you would believe the ECM snowfall totals in winter that French website shows,, it still wouldn't have melted by now and we would be staring down the barrel at another ice age.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Studying the ECM individual ensembles for next Wednesday, a big split between op style runs that shunt the heat east quickly, and furnace runs that keep the heat over the UK, I'm guessing like the UKMO. About 30-40% of the members would threaten the July record (I'm thinking 35C or more, the record is nearly 37C), or hotter still. 

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well the Gem may have said no yesterday but it says yes today!!!..I think support has increased so far today for a hot spell next week but probably becoming very humid too with an increasing risk of thunderstorms breaking out in-situ and imported from france!!?️........plumey!!

gem-1-108.thumb.png.f2438d8227e6a598a74009407747850a.pnggem-1-132.thumb.png.47bc38e2d8eeedede3b24873abfb0db1.pnggem-1-156.thumb.png.88e08e8459e86f8a62f1552174d9af07.pnggem-0-156.thumb.png.c303752d3557dc4f697cb3412511bb24.pnggem-1-174.thumb.png.b7d880c9968a0c83d43d718390438d98.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

It’s interesting that both the Euro and GFS this morning both have messy ends. The front gets near the east coast but a wave forms near the south so we end up with a messy warm, wet pattern over eastern England.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

What little information is available recently on the 500 mb anomaly charts, chiefly nil from GFS and only anomalies with ECMWF, just NOAA with the full output, but it does suggest the possibility of a split NW-SE for weather including temperature in the next 6-10 days.

This is very well presented in this link

My 500 mb anomaly outputs, chiefly based on the NOAA output

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Just based on the NOAA 8-14 and the incursion of heat mentioned for the 6-10 day outlook is not shown at all on this period, no signal for significant +ve height anomalies east of the UK but the 500 mb flow still shows the flow into the UK from S of West, so not all unsettled for any part of the UK.

Edited by johnholmes
addition of word to qualify a comment
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Certainly the Ecm 0z ensemble mean indicates an increasingly very warm / hot and humid spell across southern uk lasting most of next week, especially for the s / se and even by the end its still warm..based on current output i would expect hot sunshine but with an increasing risk of thunderstorms next week!!

EDM0-120.thumb.gif.4d4055a9a0e1d372ca793d1e3c06acaa.gifEDM1-120.thumb.gif.5e3b2323bd2d57ef8ed78b87d353181d.gifEDM0-144.thumb.gif.b54ea4df7fc6e04d95713e8f8b085a79.gifEDM1-144.thumb.gif.b08996bf4589342d6975553769dda3cd.gifEDM0-168.thumb.gif.4ab566737211adbbacc17a7245a86331.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.90907817dba1b6488564b8642df6d1a9.gifEDM0-192.thumb.gif.45b2f80180b301def7d5db7f799a8566.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.2f54ec6c540916508186e6ac7b432aa4.gifEDM0-216.thumb.gif.600c106aaf0229805fbf669e7ed45024.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.b20b5349b234cc132a881b652de91eeb.gif

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

GFS 6z looks like a sizeable step towards the UKMO to me.

Models converging on a spell of very warm/hot (maybe very hot?) weather next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Tuesday's looking good for my farmwork!

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Gfs 6z has raw data of 36c on Wednesday, add 2c on the record is seriously gonna be under threat. Wow

06_153_uk2mtmp.png

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