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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

GFS warm to very hot right through next week too - looking much more like ukmo and ecm this evening compared to the unsettled fayre on offer on 00/06z. Temps into the 30s from Tuesday onwards.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The GFS suddenly finds the upstream pattern seen on the other output and the result is generating that draw of heat seen on the others.

Typically the UKMO generates a stronger jet stream and hence an eastwards shift here.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

the gfs has blinked first, and (on this run at least) has dropped the rather progressive breakdown previously expected next wednesday... a gentle southeasterly brings the 15c isotherm (upper) right up the country

Edited by mushymanrob
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The GFS suddenly finds the upstream pattern seen on the other output and the result is generating that draw of heat seen on the others.

Typically the UKMO generates a stronger jet stream and hence an eastwards shift here.

Ha yes i noticed the slight shift on ukmo but still looks very warm/hot for many next week

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Wednesday looks to be positively scorching!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

And there's almost no chance of a cold undercut!

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Sorry for the double negatives but this ain't no glancing blow!!!!...BOOM!!!!!?️

12_198_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.687f90d98dd97c76c2628e9316954ca1.png12_198_mslp850.thumb.png.392578330186b71c474e5abfdbe30627.png12_198_ukthickness850.thumb.png.2553a690a2811b142e3c2e0534d65966.png12_174_ukthickness850.thumb.png.d1d67694898ee5753371f8088c6ec239.png12_174_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.1f41c55bc8e51618bf685b21ef108e32.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Wednesday looks to be positively scorching!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

And there's almost no chance of a cold undercut!

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

30c fairly widely across England and Wales, 35c fairly common in south eastern parts With these charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Gfs goes from zero to hero. Ukmo has backed off a bit, as has the GEM. All eyes on the ECM tonight. Gfs has 6 consecutive days of 30c+. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

The GFS noon run is a seriously good one if you are chasing heat. It marks an almost full-scale backtrack to the other two big models, and brings in a warm spell lasting at least a week or so starting Monday. There are tiny variations between the big three but a warming picture, the hotter the further south and east one is. London and the Home Counties looking at several days of values above 80f next week. 

Edited by Downpour
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS is suddenly roasting hot next week - slghtly different to UKMO at 144 so caution required.

 

Just back the ukmo west at 144 hours by 100 miles and its pretty much identical to gfs!!i think we are about to see another scorching spell of weather coming up beware!!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

The key moment seems to be around T144 — will the ridge block the incoming low, how significant will the low be, will it disrupt before arriving at the UK? 

gfs-0-144.png?12

Tonight's GFS stalls it and ushers in the full extent of the continental heat, while the ukmo looks like it will push the trough further through. 

Wouldn't be surprised to see a slight downgrade to the heat on the ECM tonight - it didn't have a terrific amount of support on the ensembles for such an extreme scenario this morning. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ha yes i noticed the slight shift on ukmo

Indeed, the icon / ukmo are further east, the gfs is further west!!..go figure....wonder what the ecm 12z will be???

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Indeed, the icon / ukmo are further east, the gfs is further west!!..go figure....wonder what the ecm 12z will be???

All variations on a theme - hence why some ensemble members will be 20c, others 10c or below....until we start seeing some clustering on the ensembles it’s still anyone’s guess.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A much longer warm/hot spell might be on the cards, so things are looking up!:oldgrin:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

So GFS says yes.

GFS control says no

GEM says no

UKMO says maybe

ECM says????

I would say 50/50 knife edge for heatwave next week. Looks pretty good up until Tuesday then who knows?? 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

GEM says no

Thank you for that, I was just about to check it..won't bother now!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Ecm may not be as good as gfs but i dont think it will be as far east as ukmo!!i think it will be perfect for the uk with the heat hitting most areas barr maybe western ireland and scotland!!cant believe we complaining bout the ukmo being ever so slightly further east it looks fantastic!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

So GFS says yes.

GFS control says no

GEM says no

UKMO says maybe

ECM says????

I would say 50/50 knife edge for heatwave next week. Looks pretty good up until Tuesday then who knows?? 

ECM says yes at the moment IMO, BBC site is ECM fed auromated data and its saying 27-30c in sourh east for a few days next week with even 26 in saddleworth.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

The key moment seems to be around T144 — will the ridge block the incoming low, how significant will the low be, will it disrupt before arriving at the UK? 

gfs-0-144.png?12

Tonight's GFS stalls it and ushers in the full extent of the continental heat, while the ukmo looks like it will push the trough further through. 

Wouldn't be surprised to see a slight downgrade to the heat on the ECM tonight - it didn't have a terrific amount of support on the ensembles for such an extreme scenario this morning. 

UKMO certainly paints a complicated picture, its on a knife edge but it appears to me as though heat would hang on to the SE with that secondary low giving another push of warmer uppers before sweeping it away further east.

image.thumb.png.ded1d0457bbb388fc035b9dc70c66942.png

I think we cansay there will be one hot day next week (Tuesday) after that its up in the open. At least the GFS (also check out the legacy run! even hotter!) has swung more to the ECM. The ECM OP earlier was on the extreme side of the ensembles but it wasn't too different from the 12z this time yesterday....

Still a lot to be resolved...

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM says yes at the moment IMO, BBC site is ECM fed auromated data and its saying 27-30c in sourh east for a few days next week with even 26 in saddleworth.

Great stuff Feb.... It must pain you to say 27-30c....hopefully we will have those figures in negative values come December mate...

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

Well if this particular GFS 12z is right it would have places like Birmingham and Manchester locked into several days of 33/34C if you can add on 3C.  Its like a balmy blowtorch from start of next week lasting well into week two.  This is like a heat lovers dream for this very synoptic pattern to occur in late July. Some local records would most definitely go, would also challenge the all time night low of 24C in Brighton aswell.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's some insanely hot GEFS 12z members for next week that are screaming potential..I wonder what a screaming perturbation would actually sound like?..perturbing probably

12_198_850tmp.thumb.png.759fdca2ccf84c5c2f1234c70eb16d98.png12_198_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.0a74ea816ed5631a5bfbe9a9709020a2.png16_246_850tmp.thumb.png.c9474091ee5b1754f05fcc1ff6df80ce.png16_246_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.006dbfe5855712cf0e2a643b866c4bf1.png18_270_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.d2b3a9fb7733d21e662bbd2a58d11b52.png18_270_850tmp.thumb.png.6d23c3b9fdcf26b496559ae2dca45220.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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