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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I must say the GEFS 6z has strengthened support even further for a very warm / hot spell, especially from later next week onwards to the end of the run with potential heatwave conditions, especially for the s / se..no exaggeration!!!..the mean turns into a stunner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I attach herewith my supporting evidence from the GEFS 6z for a hot spell..for your consideration..plus a FAN!!!

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ways-cool-summer-fans-2017-swan.jpg

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Once again, the GEFS 06Z ensemble looks like a dog's breakfast; and, as has so often been the case since the new model took over, the op might (I think) be too far on the cold side of the pack, to be taken seriously...?

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

If, as I think (subject of course to my-own near-limitless ability to misunderstand things!:olddoh:) someone has already suggested/pointed-out, everything but the op comes courtesy of the GFS Legacy, these ensembles are of less use than the virtual paper they're written on!:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Euro this morning is insane. Heat arrives on Monday, front dies on Weds and an upper low shunts 20C uppers north through the end. That would be a near record spell in the south.

GFS has the same initial idea in terms of warm and cold front but instead of cutting off the instability pushes a wave through so the second phase never transpired and it’s all over by Thursday.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Interesting output this morning. The GFS isn't much to write home about with only a brief spell of warmth later next week. The ECM on the other hand develops a strong heatwave later on next week. The uncertainty however is how the high pressure behaves, if it stays close by then this will get the tropical continental air over us and the pressure and heat can build. If not then any building heat is more likely to be swept away.

image.thumb.png.d1d7d9a640acca72e77620ff12ebae02.png GFS T174

image.thumb.png.6ef5a53b06897047613efa1dc6c7ba74.png ECM T168

The UKMO is even more keen bringing 18C uppers by T144 over southern parts. Some interesting days of model output coming up I think. I will remain cautious until all the models are on board but interest level has been raised. If we do get the build of pressure and warm uppers, lets hope a heat low from France doesn't move into the North Sea giving a NE flow and a temperature inversion at the surface... like the June plume did.

image.thumb.png.5f318816076fc86daff36ee823e31af3.pngimage.thumb.png.482d66b53b339c3b5ad780b6e7994f81.png  UKMO

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

Was this morning's GFS a cold outlier? I'm rushing through but can't see much support for the trough crashing through from its own ensembles. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
50 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

12z runs will be interesting. Let’s see if UKMO and ECM stick to their guns with GFS continuing to crawl back!

Indeed all eyes on that. It might backtrack given the lack of support for the op in its own ensembles. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Could I request that members posting a lot of charts, post them horizontally rather than vertically? It takes up quite a lot of page space. You should be able to get four or five charts/images in before the next line break.

It makes it a little easier when scrolling, especially on mobile devices. Many thanks!  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
19 minutes ago, Big daddy 49 said:

Did old Shaferknackers do it without swearing?

LOL:whistling:

Holy S... these charts are insane!!!!!!

PS..I can't do them horizontally!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!..thank you

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

PS..I can't do them horizontally!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's pretty straight forward. Post the first image, place the cursor after the first and then add your second image etc. If on a mobile device, tap the screen to the right of each image.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

It's pretty straight forward. Post the first image, place the cursor after the first and then add your second image etc. If on a mobile device, tap the screen to the right of each image.

Ok thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Here's a comparison between the Ecm 0z / Gefs mean @ day 10...Gefs 6z warmer!

EDM0-240.thumb.gif.20fbe551723f98707029fd4c65e30305.gif

gensbc-21-0-240.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Just got in so first look at the clusters and I certainly would not like to make a stab on the likely surface analysis from T144 onwards.

As was fairly obvious from the get go this morning, many options on the table. Perhaps more clues this evening but I'm not holding my breath

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019071700_144.thumb.png.98dbc2b5a2fccb12a4d08c919d30adfd.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019071700_168.thumb.png.f7a33d867e6d75b718043a3ee7421920.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019071700_192.thumb.png.a931338e220e3f7d49982e2ecab4d546.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
6 hours ago, Downpour said:

If members could talk only about certainties, it would rather defeat the object of this forum. I think speculation about the veracity of ECM’s Day 9 heatwave is valid. It’s been showing on the last two runs now. 

My comment wasn't about certainty or uncertainty, it was about me being stupid and posting something quite vacuous

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ICON 12z shows quite a marked NW / SE split next week as far as 850's are concerned, the SE quarter of the uk warms up, considerably so for the far s / se but the main dome of very warm uppers is much further ESE compared to the 0z..more of a glancing blow in comparison but the SE corner still becomes very warm or hot.

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Early doors but as of +102 the FV3 12z appears to be a big shift across to the 00z ECM and UKMO setup.

If so, the main question regarding heat build through the UK becomes how ‘flat’ the ridge is.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ukmo 12h has also shunted the main dome of very warm uppers further east / southeast so it's only  the far s / se thats in the sweet spot so to speak!..just saying it how it is!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

UKMO very hot by 144 hours - 850s touching 20c in the SE. It appears to be shunting the core of the heat away towards the continent, but the high could build back in at 168 hours onwards a la ecm to prolong the heat. Perhaps @Summer Sun could link the 168 hour chart when It’s  available for a sneak peek?

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Ukmo fantastic for heat a bit further east but all good!and gfs continues to go towards euros!massive upgrade in terms of heat and the 850s are much hotter!!ecm could be a scorcher this evening!!

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