Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Mike Poole]

Sorry, but this does just look like a bear having a poo doesn't it?  Or is it just me?

ECM T192 drags the heat close to our shores...

[Djdazzle]

Models always seem overkeen to sweep the heat away. Seems a bit too quick.

 

 

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Sorry, but this does just look like a bear having a poo doesn't it?  Or is it just me?

ECM T192 drags the heat close to our shores...

Wish the bear was a bit further north and west!!

Actually the heat is holding on, and strengthening!!!

Much hotter than the 0z ..the 0z op was crap compared to this!!!!!!!

Edited July 16, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Singularity]

12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM will again sweep the heat away rapidly, still not really buying the rapid transition.

Not with that cutoff low dropping into Iberia

23*C 850s across the SE on D9. Staggering.

Funny how ECM often tends to let Iberian lows lie for longer than FV3 which often can’t wait to lift them out - which ironically was how it was setting up the crazy hot charts it once had for late June; the lifting north of the low dragged an unusual amount of hot air with it across the UK.

This time around, the high-end heat looks to be longer-established, so a more gradual draw across the UK may suffice as per the ECM 00z.

 

A long way from knowing which way we’re really going of course; just entertaining to speculate.

[knocker]

22 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM will again sweep the heat away rapidly, still not really buying the rapid transition.

Leaving aside that this all academic I'm afraid I'm not following your logic. This run has the Atlantic trough much more neutrally aligned at T192 and digging further south than the midnight run which would retain the hotter airmass longer I would have thought

And then it disrupts to add to the confusion

Edited July 16, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Now that's a happy ending!!!

[Singularity]

Now that would be a long heatwave set up if we arrived at something akin to the D10 ECM chart.

Any bets? 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240:

I'm giving this a decent chance actually, and that is because the evolution looks to me to be consistent with the latest GloSea5 run, we will see....

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hey Mike have you noticed the closer it gets... The bigger its nose is growing.... Hope it ain't telling a lie....

Which way is the nose actually pointing, Matt?

[mb018538]

Hold your horses folks....that ECM run is bound to sit a mile above the ensemble mean. Very large truckload of salt required. Still miles too far away to be getting amped up, as tempting as it is with those sort of charts!

[summer blizzard]

Euro is very strange tonight. 

Warm front moves through at day 6, cold front moves south at day 7 but stalls and dies over the middle of England. Second surge heads north producing what looks like a convergent flow and probable active front again. Day 10 is just a bit wierd with an undercut but a more normal pattern of events likely.

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, knocker said:

Leaving aside that this all academic I'm afraid I'm not following your logic. This run has the Atlantic trough much more neutrally aligned at T192 and digging further south than the midnight run which would retain the hotter airmass longer I would have thought

And then it disrupts to add to the confusion

I have to say I’m staggered with the ECM evolution, I last looked at t168hrs assuming the heat would be swept away rapidly. It’s evolution is actually broadly similar to early Aug 2003....I was 100% wrong with my earlier statement and more than happy to admit it.....

[Dangerous55019]

Evening everyone. 
Well further to my CFS weekly anomalies that I posted yesterday evening, I though I'd have a look at what has changed over the past 24 hours...

Week one appears to have lost the 'plumey' look that it had, and by what is being forecast now would give us a south westerly airflow... It would certainly feel very muggy though.
Week two still has high pressure anchored more or less right over us giving us a slack easterly air flow... To my unprofessional eyes, I would imagine that this could be really quite hot! 

Week three and the high pressure is still with us, but like last night has changed its orientation, and we'd be in a more North Westerly air flow... I would imagine plenty of sunshine, but feeling fresher. 
And as for week four, it looks as though the high pressure is shifting back to where it started! But with no immediate sign of the trough that's in week one!

So my personal take on this is that we have got some pretty fine and hot summery weather coming up IF the CFS is right. 

But hey, I am just a mere amateur, and this is the low resolution CFS, so who knows. 

 

[summer blizzard]

Gfs is quite different in setup to the Euro in that the warm front arrives at day 6 but the cold front is nowhere near as progressive as the Euro. Interestingly the flow is still going at day 9 and becoming convergent.

Prospects for storms look high on tonights models in any breakdown.

[Frosty.]

It's a great Ecm 12z mean for the south, very warm / hot potential for the south with +16 850's close to the south which for a mean is very impressive, it indicates there is support for something more extreme..like the +24 uppers shown in the Gem 12z!!..interest is cranking up for next week, hope this trend continues!!

Edited July 16, 2019 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

Lovely EC/EC mean this evening.

Hopefully a trend to build on after this mornings blip.

 

[Roadrunner]

Which model's rainfall maps do people find the most reliable within the 48 hour range? Arpege? GFS? ICON? 

[Mapantz]

10 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Which model's rainfall maps do people find the most reliable within the 48 hour range? Arpege? GFS? ICON? 

At 48 hours you should stick to the highest resolution models. ARPEGE/WRF/AROME etc. 

My new 'go to' is the UKV model made available from Netweather care of the Met Office. It has been excellent since it has been available. However, it's only accessible via Netweather extra subscription.

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Hold your horses folks....that ECM run is bound to sit a mile above the ensemble mean. Very large truckload of salt required. Still miles too far away to be getting amped up, as tempting as it is with those sort of charts!

As expected - top of the pile and then out of the margins at the end by 5-7c above the mean. Still so much to sort out, but a decent trend.

[Man With Beard]

For the stat buffs, the raw ECM has a max of 37C in London at D9 - with usual upward adjustments of around 3C you'd get to 40C... oouch! 

Are we going to get that often seen stand-off between the EC00z and the EC12z, with the early run playing bad cop and the later run playing good cop? A bit like that today! 

Too early to guess which version it will eventually settle on, but already looks likely to be very warm for a while in southern parts. 

[Mike Poole]

35 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Which model's rainfall maps do people find the most reliable within the 48 hour range? Arpege? GFS? ICON? 

Definitely not GFS and certainly not the ICON EU (which is not the same model as the ICON longer range we talk about on here sometimes) ARPEGE or AROME are good, but also consider HIRLAM at that range.

[Captain Shortwave]

This mornings UKMO would deliver 30c across a fair part of central/southern England on the day 6 chart with the potential for day 7 to be very hot indeed with that heat pushing northwards.

GFS not so keen with the heat less intense and heights already falling a bit as fronts approach.

[northwestsnow]

16 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

This mornings UKMO would deliver 30c across a fair part of central/southern England on the day 6 chart with the potential for day 7 to be very hot indeed with that heat pushing northwards.

GFS not so keen with the heat less intense and heights already falling a bit as fronts approach.

UKMO looks very warm/hot 120-144, esp for the south.

GFS still flapping around like Rod Hull and Emu.

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 500mb profile and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UTC WV image

Many areas will start the day dry and cloud free but cloud and rain are already effecting N. Ireland and the Western Isles courtesy of a frontal system tracking slowly east which is associated with the low south of Iceland. (one way or 'tother this low has much to do with the weather over the UK in the next few days) This rain will slowly move south east during the day but become sporadic whilst the south east remains dry, albeit maybe upper cloud encroaching. Thus a very marked temp contrast NW/SE

During the evening and overnight the intermittent rain will continue south east with a few odd showers following in it's wake in north western areas

Still some intermittent rain in the south east on Thursday from the the front that is still lingering but more frequent and heavy showers, with thunder in the mix, will effect N. Ireland and western Scotland courtesy of another trough embedded in the circulation of the main low which is now south east of Iceland

But as these clear over Thursday night a new upper low has tracked east to merge with our resident low and the associated surface frontal wave is tracking north east and will bring rain, heavy at times,  and strong winds to the UK through Friday before clearing overnight Friday and through Saturday,

As noted the frontal rain will clear most areas through Saturday but only to be followed by frequent heavy showers, perhaps thundery, courtesy of a trough down central England

By Sunday a new upper trough has arrived from the west to merge with the one to the north and thus a new trough, slightly positively tilted to the west of Ireland, and an upper flow from the south west over the UK. Rather sets the stage for some WAA from the south. In the meantime another day of sunshine and showers

 

[Guest]

GFS for about the 5th Ops run on the trot is very quick in shifting through the heat early next week so I guess it can’t be ignored and would only be a quick one or two day event despite many of the ensembles being much warmer for several days longer. Seems like as usual in the D8-10 range GFS is over modelling the strength of high pressure to the east putting up the resistance to the Atlantic. UKMO slightly better at t144 and we’d probably get another hot day in the south on Wednesday before the cold front blast through and maybe a better compromise.