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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

E66BEF52-29EC-4D09-B0E5-6D7CCB1A69EC.thumb.png.366ea29eddeb6b2827708b818e72b58b.png

The good news is that the ECM op was overly aggressive with the low, and a bit of an outlier at the end. The mean now touches 15c next Thursday (25th July), so the odds of a significant warm up are still there. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

E66BEF52-29EC-4D09-B0E5-6D7CCB1A69EC.thumb.png.366ea29eddeb6b2827708b818e72b58b.png

The good news is that the ECM op was overly aggressive with the low, and a bit of an outlier at the end. The mean now touches 15c next Thursday (25th July), so the odds of a significant warm up are still there. 

Remember what happened with the last hot thundery plume predictions a few weeks ago ! It was massively downgraded into a one day SE wonder ! I wont believe the GFS 06Z until much nearer the time.  However, Its going to be gloriously hot and sunny across England today so enjoy the blue skies and sunshine and tonights partial eclipse of the moon. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
40 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Is that really a stonking mean? Even for the South East?

There would be plenty heavy showers around and perhaps even longer spells of rain.

At least I have a positive outlook, the Ecm mean shows a marked warm up for southern uk next week..I'm sick of reading doom and gloom comments!

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Confidence quite low this morning as there is no agreement at 144 with the Atlantic low.

Some kind of warm up still front runner but how warm and for how long who knows.

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EC mean/GEFS still quite keen on the warm up but still some scatter visible but the majority of members on both suites keen to drag in some warm/very warm air.

Ideally the low stalls out west to promote a plume, but equally the low could shoot across the Atlantic , as suggested yesterday, the further south east you are, the less chance of being affected the low..

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
23 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Remember what happened with the last hot thundery plume predictions a few weeks ago ! It was massively downgraded into a one day SE wonder ! I wont believe the GFS 06Z until much nearer the time.  However, Its going to be gloriously hot and sunny across England today so enjoy the blue skies and sunshine and tonights partial eclipse of the moon. 

It wasn’t really - the 850s that were predicted materialised....we just had that pesky undercut off the North Sea that led to having uppers over 20c and maxima in the low 20s in places. It was only really by Saturday that it was totally cut off and we got 34c in the SE.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It wasn’t really - the 850s that were predicted materialised....we just had that pesky undercut off the North Sea that led to having uppers over 20c and maxima in the low 20s in places. It was only really by Saturday that it was totally cut off and we got 34c in the SE.

Yes it really was incredibly unlucky- perhaps the chance of our lifetimes to see widespread temps in the mid 30s across the UK and higher in the south. I just hope we will see those sorts of 850 hPa temps again in the future.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
26 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

on the flip side to that though people may see lots of posts of glorious weather and blazing temperatures which ultimately for their locations may not come to anything , a outlook that disagrees with yours or you may not like does not make it less valid or that it shouldn't be posted , would be a very boring forum if everybody sang from the same hymn sheet

But nobody's suggesting it is' less valid', Gordon...And as, hopefully, we are all quite capable of reading the charts for ourselves, we can filter-out individual posters' spins...?:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

IMO, it'd hard to doubt that heat of some kind is on the way...? As to whether it's bog-standard muggy TM air, from the SW (26-30C?) or something rather more serious moving up from the South (33-37C?) remains to be seen...

I certainly do not know!:oldgrin::oldgrin:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 hour ago, NApplewhite said:

Remember what happened with the last hot thundery plume predictions a few weeks ago ! It was massively downgraded into a one day SE wonder ! I wont believe the GFS 06Z until much nearer the time.  However, Its going to be gloriously hot and sunny across England today so enjoy the blue skies and sunshine and tonights partial eclipse of the moon. 

The plume was NOT downgraded. What ruined it was the flow from the North Sea. The uppers were very consistently modelled from about a week away. We were just very unlucky with the precise synoptics at ground level.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Yes... after viewing that FV3 06z with its divergence from other modelling in multiple directions, I can resoundingly conclude that next week's weather will be...

Variably somewhere between a bit cool and very hot, dry and wet, calm and windy.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Ok let's please move on to what the thread is about, That is Model Output Discussion whether positive or negative is irelavent, As the trends in the Models negotiate that for us all within our favourite weather type which this thread is not for spouting.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Looking at the 0z Euro and 6z GFS there are obvious synoptic differences with longer run impact but actually they are not radically different in timing or heat level. Heat arrives at day 5 or 6, front moves through at day 8.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

What looks quite certain  is a warm up of sorts at the start of next week   Ensembles  seem to agree with this   temps possibly high 20s in the the south east  more like mid 20s  in most places.  After that is uncertain  with the opp bringing much more cooler conditions  however that is very much on the cold side of the ensembles     most go for a continuation of present conditions   Average  but very useful weather.

 

image.thumb.png.98ee01bb359937cda727c4ab9f2f3d80.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Yes it really was incredibly unlucky- perhaps the chance of our lifetimes to see widespread temps in the mid 30s across the UK and higher in the south. I just hope we will see those sorts of 850 hPa temps again in the future.

I’m pretty sure we will and perhaps eventually become a common occurrence?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

A lot of the uncertainty is stemming from the models difficulty in processing how the remnants of hurricane Barry interact with the jet stream across the pond. This one could take a while to iron out folks.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

what we get next week, and i agree with @Ed Stone that we will get some sort of hot spell (detail to be determined) , appears to depend upon the relative strengths/weaknesses and position of the expected ridge, and atlantic trough. models dont appear to agree on this, with the two main options highlighted below. will the ridge sit further south as the current gfs 00z 12z suggests, allowing the energy from the atlantic trough to exit across northern scandinavia?.. or will the ridge be shunted further north into scandinavia, thus leaving a pressure gap between that and the azores high which will allow the atlantic energy to sweep in across the uk? (as per the gfs 06z 18z)

interesting times model watching ..

 

gfs 1.png

gfs 2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm no expert but the GEFS 6z mean is screaming heat potential during at least the second half of next week..some truly hot members..especially P1 & P20!!!!

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Aye @mushymanrob, you've nicely encapsulated (much better said in a cod Giles Brandreth accent?) the current state-of-play.:oldgrin:

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

I'll certainly no' be making any predictions for next week!:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
56 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I'm no expert but the GEFS 6z mean is screaming heat potential during at least the second half of next week..some truly hot members..especially P1 & P20!!!!

 

 

 

 

I do  smile when I read of models 'screaming potential...'

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
5 hours ago, knocker said:

The EPS mean anomaly this morning pretty much as it's been indicating for a while. And NOAA not adverse to this

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Yes, without my much loved anomaly charts, GFS been missing for days and EC off and on, usually just the anomaly's showing no contours. leaving NOAA on its own. NOO does seem to favour the idea of a trough in the UK area with the suggestion on its 6-10 day of some minor height rises over Europe, so ocnl inputs of higher temperatures from Europe for the SE'ern quarter of the UK, perhaps less so further out?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ICON 12z warms up widely early next week and probably becomes very humid for a time as we briefly import continental air into the S / SE but unstable with a risk of thunderstorms..it doesn't last, fresher air follows in from the west.

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

UKMO has +16C uppers at T144, and quite a broad plume of heat  lurking to the south, as might be expected in high summer with this sort of setup - interesting!

image.thumb.jpg.ce3fc440d1978a6d5142606beb3d8cbd.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.9391f628ca77b7424c32c392f59a7e62.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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