Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm looking at the ECM mean and I can't quite understand where the gloom is coming from!! Yes it shows more unsettled conditions for several days from midweek, but it also shows an improvement later with pressure rising and only the far NW remaining unsettled! I think some places haven't recorded any measurable rain for a few weeks now as well, so I would have thought it would be welcome. Because it will be remaining warm there will be a shot at some thundery activity and perhaps a storm or 2.....so there you have it.... Surely something for everyone. 

[Frosty.]

I agree, the Ecm 0z mean looks the same as yesterday..perhaps slightly better @ day 10 actually!!.as for next week, the models have showed it turning more unsettled for days now..a N / S split!!!..nothing's changed!!!!!!

Edited July 13, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

The 06Z at T+282 looks rather spiffing!

   

[Frosty.]

Again the GEFS 6z screams very warm / hot potential during late July so no downgrade in support for a hot spell or at least a plume before July is over...some members show 32c 90f +!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited July 13, 2019 by Jon Snow

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

I really don't understand why you are giving a misleading forecast!! What I am seeing and what most senior forecasters are stating is for plenty of warm sunny spells away from North facing coasts. A cloudy start on Sunday followed by warm sunny spells especially away from the East! Shower risk increases by Wednesday.....but it stays warm throughout!!! It says nothing about a cool and cloudy depressing affair for the majority! And folk calling a decent weekend with sunny spells is hardly bigging it up tbh. 

maybe because this chart, posted by knocker earlier, suggests a cool northeasterly flow tomorrow and that usually means cloud issues for many.  here in derby this can mean a totally grey day, as 'that' weekend 6 years ago which spoilt the hot july . the problem is that its very hard to predict if or when that north sea stratus will burn back, and where.
so many of us that are prone to north sea stratus could well have a 'poor' weekend IF it doesnt break.... but of course if it does then itll produce a wonderful summers day.

as for the gfs's fi ridging/heat, its been there most of the summer so far, always in f.i.  tbh i see little point in commenting on it until theres some consistency and theres anomaly chart support. currently the noaa chart for the extended period retains a mean westerly upper flow, so until that changes, i wouldnt have thought we are likely to get a spell of more then 48 hours of heat/warmth.

 

Edited July 13, 2019 by mushymanrob

[Methuselah]

The 06Z ensembles are here. Sort of? The choice of 'white' for the op was clearly the wrong option!

   

   

Some decent rainfall next week to be followed by a potential general warm-up?

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

maybe because this chart, posted by knocker earlier, suggests a cool northeasterly flow tomorrow and that usually means cloud issues for many.  here in derby this can mean a totally grey day, as 'that' weekend 6 years ago which spoilt the hot july . the problem is that its very hard to predict if or when that north sea stratus will burn back, and where.
so many of us that are prone to north sea stratus could well have a 'poor' weekend IF it doesnt break.... but of course if it does then itll produce a wonderful summers day.

as for the gfs's fi ridging/heat, its been there most of the summer so far, always in f.i.  tbh i see little point in commenting on it until theres some consistency and theres anomaly chart support. currently the noaa chart for the extended period retains a mean westerly upper flow, so until that changes, i wouldnt have thought we are likely to get a spell of more then 48 hours of heat/warmth.

 

Exactly - it’s not misleading. Look at the 2pm radar, most of the country is cloudy.

[Bolt from the Blue]

Sorry not model chat but shouldn’t the topic title be changed seeing as the first hot and (not so) thundery plume of summer has been and gone and now we’re looking at more average conditions for the foreseeable? 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Exactly - it’s not misleading. Look at the 2pm radar, most of the country is cloudy.

Its not misleading!! The weather apps are misleading, constantly showing sunny spells from 1pm,then hour by hour they get pushed back another hour till its 7 or 8pm...yes these  cloud types are difficult to fatham out, sometimes they never break up!. Apart from a few sunny spells Friday afternoon, it's been nigh on cloudy for 7 days here. Yet some were moaning who have had glorious conditions for a fair few days... Namely on the South Coast. All the forecasts I read this morning said warm sunny spells... So to turn round and say cool and cloudy for most, does seem a little confusing to some. 

[ciel]

I thought this was supposed to be an 'objective' model output discussion thread - regardless of season or personal preferences.

There is a ramping/moaning/hunting thread available for waffles.

[knocker]

The H/res Modis for 1330 UTC

[knocker]

We have had varying amounts of cloud here all day. Some sunny periods but mainly  cloudy with Cu, forming Sc as it hits the inversion cap and occasionally more layered Sc. Forecasting cloud amounts, and by association temps, can be a bit of a nightmare in this type of scenario

[Frosty.]

So here we are almost at the halfway point of this meteorological summer and I'm still seeing signs we may see something hot before the end of July, potentially during the last week of July looking at the GEFS..not just based on today but also yesterday, the day before etc..etc..no guarantee of course, maybe the signal is wrong but I'm just trying to remain positive..still just over 6 weeks of summer to go!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited July 13, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

So here we are almost at the halfway point of this meteorological summer and I'm still seeing signs we may see something hot before the end of July, potentially during the last week of July looking at the GEFS..not just based on today but also yesterday, the day before etc..etc..no guarantee of course, I could be completely wrong but I'm just trying to remain positive..still 6 weeks of summer to go!!!!!!!!!!!

Yep, there are some signs moving forward. Something like the CFS is illustrating would suit me Karl... High pressure we'll in control come the final 3rd of the month... Subject to major inconsistencies though! 6 weeks of summer left!!! Let's call it the equinox.... And go for 10 more weeks mate....

[mushymanrob]

22 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yep, there are some signs moving forward. Something like the CFS is illustrating would suit me Karl... High pressure we'll in control come the final 3rd of the month... Subject to major inconsistencies though! 6 weeks of summer left!!! Let's call it the equinox.... And go for 10 more weeks mate....

that looks like a mighty cloudy high to me, away from the west coast/southwest. sorry.

[ciel]

18 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Its all academic at this range anyway!! I'm only looking for positives right now. Its been dull and overcast for literally 7 days here now, and probably for a few on here. So I'm basically hunting for something decent down the line. 

If you only want to look for positives, refer yourself to another thread. There's nothing academic about it.

[Frosty.]

Speaking of positives, I'm positively positive the ICON 12z is trending more unsettled from around next midweek onwards, perhaps the S / SE not doing too badly and signs of improvement for the south by the end of the run..another positive!!

Edited July 13, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z shows a trough coming in from the west, on Wednesday. So, a chance of some much-needed rain!

   

[MATTWOLVES 3]

If its wrong of me to look for positives during high summer... Then, that's a shame. So here goes... Gfs terrible at day 5...low pressure stuck bang over us.... For how long.... Who knows.... Maybe the rest of the summer...

Edited July 13, 2019 by Mattwolves

[knocker]

It is wrong to look for unjustified positives, or negatives whether it be summer or winter as it simply misleads anyone who is silly enough to take the thread seriously. Of course by so doing it does allow for the frequent playing of the upgrade and downgrade sonata in B minor,

[Frosty.]

Perhaps the ukmo 12h looks a tad more unsettled for the south too by T+144..certainly the southwest but on a more positive note, temperatures look ok further south!

Edited July 13, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

T+213 and the 12Z is hinting at a possible plume. 

  

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Its also a long way off, I posted those charts just to see if high pressure was in the vicinity rather than low pressure... Yet your picking faults with the position of it... The anticyclone may not be there, it may be further West-East-North or South. But tbh I would rather be seeing it than a big low pressure parked over us.... Its all academic at this range anyway!! I'm only looking for positives right now. Its been dull and overcast for literally 7 days here now, and probably for a few on here. So I'm basically hunting for something decent down the line. 

Looks decent enough to me, Matt we're having a decent spell of weather here already.

[Methuselah]

Well, well...the 12Z ends on a more mobile-looking note, for a change...

   

[Frosty.]

Looks like a N / S split..better for the south..another positive.

Edited July 13, 2019 by Jon Snow