Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

There are quite a few very warm ensembles appearing, and the 2 I'm posting could well be fitting in with exters thoughts on increasing likelihood of hot spells in the south further ahead.... So average summer conditions continuing, I'm not so sure. 

Of course the possibility  is always there  but going by the latest GFS 6z run it is very average    And im not sure were people are seeing a warm up on the mean towards the later part of July  to me its the same uppers as it is today   For me in a purely selfish point of view its perfect.  Not to hot not to cold  and with some dry days. However for people craving heat  the latest runs dont show that.   But as in winter  the next set of runs could bring something totally different.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Of course the possibility  is always there  but going by the latest GFS 6z run it is very average    And im not sure were people are seeing a warm up on the mean towards the later part of July  to me its the same uppers as it is today   For me in a purely selfish point of view its perfect.  Not to hot not to cold  and with some dry days. However for people craving heat  the latest runs dont show that.   But as in winter  the next set of runs could bring something totally different.  

I just backed up that post with what the big boys are saying... And tbh they no a little more than what we do. They have vast data amounts and In fairness can probably analyse it a little better than us! 

Edited July 11, 2019 by Mattwolves

[thestixx]

The output could be much much worse, here near the penninesit's been pretty decent since the awful start to June. Thenk the lord theJet isn't parked over us this summer!

[Frosty.]

The 6z mean does show a warm up as time goes on with regular incursions of +10 or higher 850's into southern uk..so, frequent 25c + for southern uk at least and potential for spells of 30c +!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited July 11, 2019 by Jon Snow

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

I just backed up that post with what the big boys are saying... And tbh they no a little more than what we do. They have vast data amounts and In fairness can probably analyse it a little better than us! 

I Think we are getting crossed wires.  Im merely pointing to the latest GFS 6z run   which shows average conditions (which for me is good)  with the odd rogue perb thrown in    nothing on the 6z screams hot conditions   off course when we get to the end of July if not before  it may be totally different   but going from the charts available to us   and this being a model discussion chat    at the moment its average  summer conditions  no heat but no washout either.    And in regard to the Met  if you are going off there monthly outlook    then ill give it a miss  i remember last winter.  Not pretty 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, weirpig said:

I Think we are getting crossed wires.  Im merely pointing to the latest GFS 6z run   which shows average conditions (which for me is good)  with the odd rogue perb thrown in    nothing on the 6z screams hot conditions   off course when we get to the end of July if not before  it may be totally different   but going from the charts available to us   and this being a model discussion chat    at the moment its average  summer conditions  no heat but no washout either.    And in regard to the Met  if you are going off there monthly outlook    then ill give it a miss  i remember last winter.  Not pretty 

I posted some ensembles showing that this could tie in with there thoughts of hot spells... You can't just dismiss the worlds biggest weather authority on a failed winter!!! And come to mention it.... You name me one organisation that called winter correctly! Personally I think we are on for some hot spells to end the month, and into August. 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

I posted some ensembles showing that this could tie in with there thoughts of hot spells... You can't just dismiss the worlds biggest weather authority on a failed winter!!! And come to mention it.... You name me one organisation that called winter correctly! Personally I think we are on for some hot spells to end the month, and into August. 

This is going way off topic  if you see Hot weather on the horizon off the GFS 6z   ( which again is what i was refering to )  without cherry picking some rogue perb   then good luck to you     And i hope it happens   And in regard to the MET  im not talking about a winter forecast  i was talking about the monthly forecast  which constantly went for much colder conditions  and never materialised   That just show how difficult it is to forecast more than a few days into the future.  Anyway lets see what the 12z brings  if (and as i see it)  it brings in hot conditions i will be the first to say so

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

This is going way off topic  if you see Hot weather on the horizon off the GFS 6z   ( which again is what i was refering to )  without cherry picking some rogue perb   then good luck to you     And i hope it happens   And in regard to the MET  im not talking about a winter forecast  i was talking about the monthly forecast  which constantly went for much colder conditions  and never materialised   That just show how difficult it is to forecast more than a few days into the future.  Anyway lets see what the 12z brings  if (and as i see it)  it brings in hot conditions i will be the first to say so

Today's runs may not pick this up, neither the next few days... But possibly before much longer we will again see a build of heat to our South... With an influx of it North. So i will be viewing multiple models and ensembles and comparing each run, like for like... 0z with 0z....12z with 12z.. No point in just viewing individual runs and making a summary. Especially if it's just the GFS model. And yes I finally agree with you, time to get back on topic! 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GFS looks to be trending away from a heatwave in the last week of July with ensembles trending much cooler than shown 3 days ago.
EC seems to be going the opposite way and trending towards hotter conditions.  00z Control run has a hot S/SE flow into the UK at end of July with blocking over N Europe.
 

[Norrance]

No more Met O discussion please!

[Frosty.]

The ICON 12z shows a day by day improvement and a largely settled weekend / early next week as high pressure builds in from the west bringing variable cloud and sunny spells with temps into the mid 20's celsius across southern uk, low 20's c further north and probably a bit lower for most of scotland but still very pleasant!

[Methuselah]

Well whaddayerknow!...the British Isle in their entirety have their very-own private anticyclone!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

A very nice weekend and early next week from the UKMO coming up. 

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO going with a repeat (sort of) of this week with a split jet allowing a weak area of low pressure to drift close to the UK.

         

This time however rainfall looks more likely in the south, day 6 is fine with the Azores high likely to ridge towards us again.

GFS looks different though with low pressure holding to the north west of the UK with a stronger jetstream.

      

More of a North/south split developing longer term. That said the evolution feels a little dubious, as there is very little to feed that low by day 4 so the idea of the trough weakening like the UKMO looks more sensible to me.
    

Edited July 11, 2019 by Captain Shortwave

[knocker]

The gfs trending towards this morning's ecm at the beginning of next week as the Atlantic trough becomes very negatively tilted as the result of the energy distribution against the ridge and in the process starts ti establish the  ridge over Iceland which seems to figure in the later evolution this morning. Thus becoming more unsettled in the UK during the week.

[Frosty.]

So far the Gfs 12z operational is following a similar pattern to the 6z..i.e trough, ridge, trough, ridge..hopefully it will also end on a high NOTE!!!

[Guest]

Well I know people are going to say I’m moaning but everything seems downgraded this afternoon, even high pressure over the weekend looks predominantly cloudy for most low twenties at best and a bit of waste of high pressure to be honest and then next week the weak upper trough will finally win out bringing more organised showers, rain, cloud and cooler conditions. 

[Frosty.]

I'm seeing a N / S split later on the Gfs 12z operational and it actually looks predominantly nice for the south!...don't know what all the moaning is about, I could understand it from scottish members but not from southern england!!

[Mike Poole]

Very interesting output from GloSea5 output today for Aug-Oct:

Here's the outer quintiles plot for 2m temperature:

Probability >55% hottest category, <5% coldest.  Best I've seen on these for a hot signal.  Z500:

Strong signal for higher heights, not quite as extreme.  No clear signal still re precipitation, so plume, storm scenarios presumably in that mix too along with settled dry spells.

I'm on the cusp of calling a decent likelihood of a hot August, how long has it been?  2003?

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm on the cusp of calling a decent likelihood of a hot August, how long has it been?  2003?

I'm on the cusp of thinking England might win the cricket world cup...

Anyway, the models don't look bad, especially for southern uk..I'm not seeing a return to the vile stuff we had in the first 3 weeks of June!

 

[northwestsnow]

24 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well I know people are going to say I’m moaning but everything seems downgraded this afternoon, even high pressure over the weekend looks predominantly cloudy for most low twenties at best and a bit of waste of high pressure to be honest and then next week the weak upper trough will finally win out bringing more organised showers, rain, cloud and cooler conditions. 

TBH when i see who has posted i already know what the models will look like so the heads up is always appreciated Alderc 

Anyway, TBH i'm not sure the models are sure the direction of travel, temps generally look warm with showers around would be my guess.

[Methuselah]

As I'm buggered if I can see a 'downgrade' I was about to book an appointment with my optician...Then I saw what I saw, and that which is seen can never be unseen!

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH when i see who has posted i already know what the models will look like so the heads up is always appreciated Alderc 

Alderc has been quite positive recently so I'm surprised he's so gloomy now, anyway the Gem 12z isn't too bad, plenty of ridging for the south and an encouraging finish with the azores ridge building NE.

Edited July 11, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

34 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well I know people are going to say I’m moaning but everything seems downgraded this afternoon, even high pressure over the weekend looks predominantly cloudy for most low twenties at best and a bit of waste of high pressure to be honest and then next week the weak upper trough will finally win out bringing more organised showers, rain, cloud and cooler conditions

Its been cloudy here everyday since last Saturday... So whatever the weekend brings.... It will be an upgrade for me! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

25 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I'm on the cusp of thinking England might win the cricket world cup...

Anyway, the models don't look bad, especially for southern uk..I'm not seeing a return to the vile stuff we had in the first 3 weeks of June!

 

Yep, agree there Karl... Regarding Mike's post, 16 years since a hot August. So we are long overdue one by now... Next week could be a tad more unsettled at times... But like I've always said to my weather pupils.... Get the unsettled conditions in.... And the hot plumes will follow....