Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Guest]

I need to decide whether tomorrow whether to stick with my week off next week or bin it, this mornings output hasn’t really helped, feels like we are on the slippery slop to the annual change in conditions to coincide with the break up of the schools later next week. Hard to see the ridging putting up much of a fight even from a very weak trough that looks like moving in. Cross model agreement of waining pressure even across the south from Wednesday onwards.

[NApplewhite]

I'd agree - forecasts yesterday of high temperatures in places Like London have gone and the models are showing a lot of precipitation across the UK over the next 240 hours and only average temperatures. Looks like various troughs will cross the UK over the next 10 days. 

Edited July 11, 2019 by NApplewhite
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[Frosty.]

My God it's depressing reading in here, anyway there's still an improvement coming for the weekend / early next week thanks to a strong ridge and the Ecm 0z ensemble mean ends better than yesterday.

Edited July 11, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Singularity]

17 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Why are you putting it in the suspicious box when its been negative since April 26th-

It should be in the 'probable box'...

Also a paper was posted on here that research has shown the link & correlation between UK weather V Nino phase is less than originally touted in favour of Stratosphere & QBO phase

Well...

Persistence only gets you so far.

The stratospheric positive height and temp anomalies are declining.

The QBO is still westerly away from the upper levels.

 

Not at all surprising to me that ECM's now backed down on the Greenland height rises, though they could still manifest if there's more of a Nina-like 'kick' from the Indian Ocean than currently modelled. ECM's repeated sliding of lows into Europe (instead of west of Iberia) seems to be the main impact of Nina-like interference in its latest run.

 

For what it's worth, with the descending E QBO in the coming months, and such a messed-up stratospheric profile, I'd not be surprised to see further long periods of -NAO feature later this year.

[danm]

Maybe it’s just because I’ve read posts by one or two of the usual suspects, but to me the output doesn’t look that bad at all. In fact it’s quite good. Up until Tuesday we’re guaranteed dry, settled, warm and sometimes sunny weather.

UKMO only goes out to Wednesday and shows more low pressure influence on that day.

GFS does too by then but it isn’t a June style washout, but more of a NW/SE split with pressure trying to rebuild by next weekend. 

ECM looks good to me - yes pressure falls on Wednesday but by Thursday it’s rebuilding again and next Friday and the weekend looks excellent. 

All a long way off anyway and the next 5 days (the reliable timeframe) looks good. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

20 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

My God it's depressing reading in here, anyway there's still an improvement coming for the weekend / early next week thanks to a strong ridge and the Ecm 0z ensemble mean ends better than yesterday.

Your correct Karl. It seems that everytime the model runs overnight are not quite so good, some are very quick to paint a not so nice picture. Didn't we have this just the other week, when some even mentioned a return to early like June conditions!! The ECM mean doesn't look that bad to me, and like you say perhaps a tad better than last night. I do not see at this stage a dominating low pressure bringing copious amounts of rain, not away from the far NW anyway. We still seem kind of stuck in no man's land, with neither high or low gaining the upper hand. The models for me are still struggling with the evolution of all of this. And quite rightly like you point out, the weekend and early next week are looking pretty promising. Still alot to sort out after this time scale, and far from a done deal. 

[Methuselah]

Indeed, Matt, the negative attitude can get rather tiresome...With HP building back in, over the weekend, and with winds from a more northerly quarter, those of us who'd welcome a couple days' respite from the current high humidity, can take heart from these charts, too:

  

[knocker]

Very little change with the EPS ext mean anomalies this morning

Still looking at the TPV over the western Arctic with a subsidiary lobe N. Canada, the latter in conjunction with continuing positive anomalies in the Iceland Greenland area with some gentle ridging. Thus a westerly upper flow across the Atlantic which is relatively benign on reaching UK shores.portending some changeability vis some gentle Tm and Pm interaction with temps above average. Last evening's NOAA in the same ball park

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed, Matt, the negative attitude can get rather tiresome...With HP building back in, over the weekend, and with winds from a more northerly quarter, those of us who'd welcome a couple days' respite from the current high humidity, can take heart from these charts, too:

  

To put things into perspective Pete, the sun has basically not made an appearance since Sunday here, even though the forecast everyday has been for sunny spells. The details in the forecast have been well out on a day to basis.... So what traction do we have for things to turn much more unsettled in 6/7 days time! And Tbh if some Atlantic systems moving through pretty quickly mean  sunny spells and a few showers following on, i will take it. I could moan for King and Country about it being cloudy every day since literally last Saturday, but I don't! I'm looking for some positives all the time even when they are thin on the ground. Still the best part of 6 weeks summer to go as well.. And with weather patterns around the globe the way they are currently, its not out of the question we could see a good September and October!! That won't suit everyone I no.... For obvious reasons. Still alot to be upbeat about though just yet. 

[Guest]

36 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed, Matt, the negative attitude can get rather tiresome...With HP building back in, over the weekend, and with winds from a more northerly quarter, those of us who'd welcome a couple days' respite from the current high humidity, can take heart from these charts, too:

  

Its really not that humid, for most its only a degree or two warmer than room temperature so even with modest summer DP's of 13-15C I really don't see how anyone can need a respite from it to be honest. 

GFS 06Z again looks similar with a downhill slope beyond the middle of next week as a low pressure feeds in on a slightly more active Jet streak but its a close run thing, if pressure was just a tad higher we could easily find ourselves in a continuation of summery conditions especially in the south. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

24 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Its really not that humid, for most its only a degree or two warmer than room temperature so even with modest summer DP's of 13-15C I really don't see how anyone can need a respite from it to be honest. 

GFS 06Z again looks similar with a downhill slope beyond the middle of next week as a low pressure feeds in on a slightly more active Jet streak but its a close run thing, if pressure was just a tad higher we could easily find ourselves in a continuation of summery conditions especially in the south. 

Maybe its not that humid on the south coast!! Current humidity levels are above 60% in the midlands. Close to 70% in places. 

Edited July 11, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Maybe its not that humid on the south coast!! Current humidity levels are above 60% in the midlands. Close to 70% in places. 

Indeed. And certainly outwith the environmental parameters that we Englanders have evolved to comfortably tolerate...?

[weirpig]

12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Maybe its not that humid on the south coast!! Current humidity levels are above 60% in the midlands. Close to 70% in places. 

Yes its more humid then the south coast here   however still only around average for the time of year   hardly  Tropical   actually its quite nice 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed. And certainly outwith the environmental parameters that we Englanders have evolved to comfortably tolerate...?

Most definitely Pete... Already had a dozen folk say to me this morning.... My god its muggy.... Looking at the 6z run, I feel its not to bad mid to long term... We have low pressure mainly affecting the NW... it then anchors itself over us for a couple of days before we see another build of high pressure from the SW later.... Not bad overall I feel. 

Yes weirpig... I've got no probs with it... Alot of folk around here complain when the temps go above 21c....

Edited July 11, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

I wouldn't mind this, were it to ever materialise:

   

PS: It won't!

[Frosty.]

I can basically sum up the Gfs 6z operational as trough, ridge, trough, ridge, trough, high..or something like that...anyway, great finish!!!

Edited July 11, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

So, what do the 06Z ensembles say? It looks, to me at least, that our current spell of 'not a lot' will give-way around July 21st to something else...but, as to what, we'll just have to wait and see? What I can't see, however, is the much prophesied (as in, each time a new run comes out) gradual descent into something unspecified

   

   

We may or may not like the weather we get, but there's sod-all we can do about it?

Edited July 11, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

Yet again there's some great summery potential on the GEFS 6z with plumes and anticyclones chances increasing with time..the mean again trends warmer!!!

[MIKE LEVITT]

average summer continues,no heat wave in sight.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, MIKE LEVITT said:

average summer continues,no heat wave in sight.

Actually when you look through the GEFS 6z there are several opportunities for heatwaves..if you go and look!!

Edited July 11, 2019 by Jon Snow

[weirpig]

37 minutes ago, MIKE LEVITT said:

average summer continues,no heat wave in sight.

If you go by the latest GFS  then yes  fairly mundane  A typical summer  Average Temps  and at times unsettled conditions   The mean  is rather uninspiring   levelling out with uppers around 10   Of course  A few of the Perbs may be onto something  but as it stands  standard summer fare is the favourite    (central England)

[Frosty.]

I don't see what's so bad about the models showing average summer conditions, it's better than the mostly abysmal weather we had in June and as I've said, the GEFS 6z mean and several before it all trend warmer for the last third of July with potential for plumes / continental heat and anticyclonic conditions...the mood on here has been rather dismal / depressing today but the output isnt!!!

[Downpour]

3 hours ago, danm said:

Maybe it’s just because I’ve read posts by one or two of the usual suspects, but to me the output doesn’t look that bad at all. In fact it’s quite good. Up until Tuesday we’re guaranteed dry, settled, warm and sometimes sunny weather.

UKMO only goes out to Wednesday and shows more low pressure influence on that day.

GFS does too by then but it isn’t a June style washout, but more of a NW/SE split with pressure trying to rebuild by next weekend. 

ECM looks good to me - yes pressure falls on Wednesday but by Thursday it’s rebuilding again and next Friday and the weekend looks excellent. 

All a long way off anyway and the next 5 days (the reliable timeframe) looks good. 

That's a fair roundup. It's often said that you can predict the nature of a post by the name of the poster. Some very useable weather, better in the south. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

If you go by the latest GFS  then yes  fairly mundane  A typical summer  Average Temps  and at times unsettled conditions   The mean  is rather uninspiring   levelling out with uppers around 10   Of course  A few of the Perbs may be onto something  but as it stands  standard summer fare is the favourite    (central England)

There are quite a few very warm ensembles appearing, and the 2 I'm posting could well be fitting in with exters thoughts on increasing likelihood of hot spells in the south further ahead.... So average summer conditions continuing, I'm not so sure. 

[Frosty.]

And even average summers have heatwaves as well as cool spells..we are in the game as far as I can see from the output I've looked at..