Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Methuselah]

Look at those uppers...and not a hint of cold air coming all the way from Iceland via the North Sea, either!

  

[SMU]

Another record goes today-

( small bandwidth ) but the weakest stratospheric zonal wind ( or shall we say most 'negative' on Record ) superseding 2009!!

Edited July 9, 2019 by Steve Murr

[feb1991blizzard]

Only around 2-3 months away now from Stratosphere temperature watch 2019-2020 - time flies - tick tock tick tock

[Frosty.]

There's some absolutely beautiful members in the GEFS 12z during the final third of July..even better than the 6z..gotta stay hopeful / positive!!

Sorry they are not in the correct order.

Edited July 9, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

36 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only around 2-3 months away now from Stratosphere temperature watch 2019-2020 - time flies - tick tock tick tock

Yep, and by December the winter is over posts will be flying in...

Other than that.... Looking forward to it Feb

Edited July 9, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

Here are the 12Z ensembles: I love the way those temps warm only slowly. But steadily!

   

   

[danm]

Saturday, Sunday and Monday from the ECM. Looking good. On a side note, it reached 25c here in London today, even though the forecast high was only 21c. 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I would pretty much call that cross model agreement at day 5.

ECM

UKMO

GFS..

Further ahead with ECM out to day 7....can high pressure squeeze back in and shunt that low pressure!!! 

out to 192hrs...certainly better than last night's 12z...low pressure not as dominant. 

Edited July 9, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

It will feel like July 2013 if the GFS 12z happens. 850s of 20C in the SE, France in the mid 40C again.. Probably just a hot outlier.   

[knocker]

A brief flirtation with low pressure over the next two or three days, with sundry fronts and a shallow wave crossing the country. before the subtropical high ridges once more portending a drier weekend and temps a little above average apart from eastern coastal regions, Thus quite wet over Weds/Thurs with thundery outbreaks more particularly in the  north and east with just the SW and S escaping

Edited July 9, 2019 by knocker

[Guest]

Clearly the GFS ops run this evening is an absolutely MASSIVE outlier, but real eye candy! Hopefully it’s spotted a trend it sticks too. ECM around D8-9 couldn’t be more different, real chalk and cheese with a deep low moving across the UK from the north west.

Model Battle-Royale about to commence.......

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just like last night, the 12z plants low pressure slap bang over us at day 10....got a feeling this will be an outlier, and the mean will not agree... 

[knocker]

The transition from the influential ridge to a more fluid Atlantic pretty much in line with the EPS anomalies posted earlier

 

Edited July 9, 2019 by knocker

[Djdazzle]

The ECM op has been overblowing low pressure for weeks. The mean will show something different.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

The ECM op has been overblowing low pressure for weeks. The mean will show something different.

Got to agree with you there mate... Any unsettled Conditions I feel will be mainly affecting the NW of the uk. 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z operational has it's good points, there's still a nice strong ridge of high pressure building in, perfect timing for the weekend and lasting into early next week!

Edited July 9, 2019 by Jon Snow

[knocker]

Brewing into quite a nasty storm?

 

[Kentspur]

27 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Just like last night, the 12z plants low pressure slap bang over us at day 10....got a feeling this will be an outlier, and the mean will not agree... 

That's ok I'm back to work on the 18th more importantly my birthday aka the famous weather related day of St Swithuns day is looking dry and settled

[Don]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

 

Other than that.... Looking forward to it Feb

Are you going to Canada?  Nothing to look forward to in winter over here.  Global warming has destroyed it!

[Frosty.]

Well, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean doesn't look as unsettled as the operational at day 10 and before that there's a more settled spell to look forward to at the weekend into next week.

Edited July 9, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

29 minutes ago, Don said:

Are you going to Canada?  Nothing to look forward to in winter over here.  Global warming has destroyed it!

Far to early to say that Don... Winters will only cease to occur when there is no know longer any cold pools left on earth... I dont wanna p on everyone's summer parade... But I reckon we are long overdue a severe one!! You just watch the NAO stay negative later this year. I just can't wait for Tamara and the other big guns thoughts for this coming winter.. 

Back on topic... The ECM mean still not as bad has the op regarding low pressure next week.. It looks to me the NW most certainly becoming more unsettled... Those further SE.. Not so much... The ens do paint a gradual reduction in pressure.. Even the mean... But still a little more pleasing than the op... Still an unresolved situation if you ask me. 

[Frosty.]

Here's a direct comparison between the Ecm 12z operational / mean @T+240 hours...mean it is then!!

[Snowyowl9]

ECM bringing the unsettled spell too early for my liking next week,hopefully it`ll stay settled until next Wednesday.

[knocker]

A weak upper trough will be the main influence over the next couple of days before the subtropical high once more ridges north east portending a dry and pleasant weekend for most.

On the surface a shallow wave will track east to be NW of Ireland by midnight tonight with the associated occlusion running down the west coast of same.This movement will be preceded by a couple of troughs tracking east across the northern half of the UK bringing a lot of showery activity which may well produce some intense thunderstorms across the NE of Scotland later Quite warm in the south east so some heavy showers could well be triggered in East Anglia during the afternoon.

The thundery activity should dissipate this evening albeit another band of rain will track east but during tomorrow and into Friday the shallow low and occlusion will cross the country resulting in heavy showers in many areas with thunder in the mix. Quite a complicated scenario

Edited July 10, 2019 by knocker

[Guest]

Hmmm, it’s there again isn’t it? GFS seems to be sniffing out a plume of very high 850s again beginning in around 8 or 9days, while a complete outlier yesterday afternoon in the 12z run this morning a few more from the ensemble pack have followed indicating a return of 20c Isotherm to the UK over the weekend of 20th/21st is a small possibility. Feels like we are at about a 25% likelihood of that happening compared to 5% yesterday. 

Will be very interesting to see if ECM takes the very unsettled route again, UKmet is promising and similar to GFS at 144hrs and it’s that period at 144-168 which currently appears to be key. Will low move in from the west and finally bring in the Atlantic or will it sink south and drive a plume. Interestingly the Beeb did call out the possibility of the later yesterday evening. All of sudden, interesting times...