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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Hmm, GFS 06z at the surface is actually pretty reasonable in the south, 25-27c from Wednesday onwards for 5days, unfortunately the pattern is finely balanced and pretty much all the other models seem to be more unsettled with cooler, cloudier conditions and more frontal activity. Sort of feels like we are just waiting for something other than nothingness to dominate things in and around the UK. 

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

Mixed outlook this morning. Very slack pressure pattern. Most of the showers on Wednesday and Thursday are likely to be further north, shower risk probably moving further south and east on Friday and Saturday before higher pressure builds in from the west. 

Summing up, this week looks average temperature wise, maybe a bit above in any lengthy sunny spells. Shower risk for all - more risk further north and west at first midweek and then further south and east from Friday into Saturday. 

No heatwave, no washout, no prolonged settled spell. All a bit meh, but far better than we had during the first two thirds of June. 

As ever at this time of year and with this set up, small movements in the position of ridges could allow the south in particular to tap into warmth from the continent. On Thursday and Friday we got up to 27c/28c which was only forecast a couple of days before, prior to that it was looking likely that 23c/24c would be our max. 

One thing to note in this slack set up is that any showers are likely to be slow moving. 

Edited by danm
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Sort of feels like we are just waiting for something other than nothingness to dominate things in and around the UK. 

I don't mind nothingness, it's at least been feeling more summery than it did for most of the autumnal feeling June...the models are indicating largely decent temperatures, plenty of ridging (fine and sunny) and some showers with a risk of thunder..if that's nothingness..bring it on!!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

It doesn't look to bad to me, I'm not taking to much notice of solely op runs... Away from the NW we have plenty of settled Conditions in the 10 day period. We can clearly see the dip in pressure around the 12th of the month, things then do again improve a tad. I've seen worse... I've seen better... Just depends on whether your happy with the bit in the middle... Personally I feel we are shaping up for a special August!! Just my 2 penneth! 

EDM1-96 (1).gif

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graphe_ens3 (1).png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean doesn't look bad, no nasties lurking in the woodshed..it looks quite benign with azores ridging waxing and waning with an occasional chance of potentially thundery showers..temperatures at least look pleasantly warm and sometimes rather / very warm towards the s / se!

EDM1-72.gif

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EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

It doesn't look to bad to me, I'm not taking to much notice of solely op runs... Away from the NW we have plenty of settled Conditions in the 10 day period. We can clearly see the dip in pressure around the 12th of the month, things then do again improve a tad. I've seen worse... I've seen better... Just depends on whether your happy with the bit in the middle... Personally I feel we are shaping up for a special August!! Just my 2 penneth! 

EDM1-96 (1).gif

EDM1-120 (1).gif

EDM1-144 (1).gif

EDM1-192 (1).gif

EDM1-216 (1).gif

graphe_ens3 (1).png

I hope you are right, Matt.

I find it interesting that, just as we are approaching the time when subtropical influences attain their peak, both computers and humans are having difficulties, in knowing just what will happen next?

And, FWIW, I've nae got a scooby!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
30 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I hope you are right, Matt.

I find it interesting that, just as we are approaching the time when subtropical influences attain their peak, both computers and humans are having difficulties, in knowing just what will happen next?

And, FWIW, I've nae got a scooby!

Yes Pete, there is also alot of uncertainty with the boys from the SW. settled conditions, unsettled conditions, the duration of these spells seems very spasmodic to coin a phrase from Tamara. Slack pressure flow would entail some long warm sunny spells, but where showers occur, there would be scope for some lengthy downpours. And as is always the case, some places getting drenched, while other spots wondering what all the fuss is about! I'm not seeing major heights building over Greenland or major heights over Western Russia devoloping like early June, leading to troughs becoming boxed in over the UK for many days on end. I'm also still not seeing and overly enthusiastic Atlantic pushing bands of relentless rain through on a conveyor belt type scenario. Just about anything could happen at this stage.

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I like the GEFS 6z mean, it looks benign and largely summery with plenty of azores ridging which waxes and wanes with some more humid, showery and potentially thundery interludes, there's a suggestion we could occasionally tap into continental air, at least for the s / se!

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I like the GEFS 6z mean, it looks benign and largely summery with plenty of azores ridging which waxes and wanes with some more humid, showery and potentially thundery interludes, there's a suggestion we could occasionally tap into continental air, at least for the s / se!

You seeing any signs of a NW/SE split devoloping Karl towards the final 3rd of the month, or are your cards still very much on the table!? 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

You seeing any signs of a NW/SE split devoloping Karl towards the final 3rd of the month, or are your cards still very much on the table!? 

Hi Matt, I'm just pleased with how the models are looking, not too dry, not too wet, not too hot, not too cool..should please most.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And, with reference to one's current state of almost total bamboozlement, I'll post the GEFS 06Z ensembles. As if there are going to bring forth a state of enlightenment!

t850London.png  t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

Let the confusion continue: image.thumb.png.5182f5d7d906650d3360ddc27ca58c12.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The GEM mean clearly showing the low heights to our NW/N and high heights to our South. Not so good in the far NW, middle of the road inbetween, and much better to the South looks a good call at this stage. 

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gens-21-1-312.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the icon 12z it's a mixed week ahead with some dry and sunny weather but equally some showers breaking out which could be heavy and thundery but later in the week, especially next weekend into early the following week there's a stronger looking ridge building in which kills the shower risk and brings a spell of fine and sunnier weather.

Temperatures for the week ahead look around average so certainly pleasantly warm into the low 20's c, more like mid to high teens c for most of scotland. 

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I'm with Karl on that one, completely agree.... Icon most definitely showing some strong ridging NE by next weekend, and temps on the up... Not bad at all. 

icon-0-168.png

icon-0-180.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not a bad weekend coming up. A bit of allsorts perhaps?

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

Saturday looking good on the UKMO, pressure building in nicely from the W/SW:

 

74B3A0A5-8A2E-4493-95A2-13F377EB77B6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z operational turns increasingly into a sunshine and heavy showers with thunder mix for most of the week ahead and it warms up noticeably between thurs / sun, especially further south with pressure rising that bit higher and showers becoming less of an issue with more in the way of dry weather and sunshine, hence the higher temps!

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

GFS also looking nice next weekend:

 

43CB77C2-AC1F-4BFC-8C35-F9E2753858BE.png

9AFB2785-0D48-45E0-AFC9-02A5C64FFF15.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And what's this for the 22nd?:shok::yahoo:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

More than likely it'll never happen, but even imagining a plume is fun?:oldgood:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Short - term, a slack pressure pattern developing with pressure forecast to lower, which will increase chance of slow moving showery activity and embedded trough/frontal features from the west, which could deliver some persistant rain in some places, nothing especially heavy, but not very summery like. NW regions look primed to receive most of the rain, with here unfortunately probably suffering the most.. As we approach the weekend, signs the ridge will be back again, calming things down and allowing settled conditions to envelop the UK.

A preety average outlook, nothing especially warm, or very wet..

As we look further into July and the start of what I call 'high summer' roughly mid July to mid August, no obvious signal, my hunch is a continuation of a rather mixed outlook, potential for another shortlived plume, more azores ridging, more atlantic influence from a cool NW source.. at least during latter part of July, not sure about August at this stage.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
7 minutes ago, Bushbaby77 said:

It looks like this summer will fall into the poor to average category. The charts certainly look that way. 

What charts?

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
8 minutes ago, Bushbaby77 said:

It looks like this summer will fall into the poor to average category. The charts certainly look that way. 

Can you offer a bit more in depth detail to this summary! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The 12Z GEFS ensembles paint a funny old picture; the control run might even be on acid, during its latter stages. So, certainly nothing to complain about temperature-wise...:oldgrin:

t850London.png  t2mLondon.png

Rainfall? Some but nae too much.:search:

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Quite liking the GEM 12z, looking good for next weekend and into the start of the next. Temps perhaps mid 20s at best..

gem-0-120.png

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gem-0-168.png

gem-0-192.png

gem-0-216.png

gem-1-192.png

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