Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Scorcher]

Really good GFS 12Z so far, not exceptional but a lot of sustained warmth next week which is great to see. It's not a patch on last July at the moment but if we'd been offered this in many summers gone by we'd have taken it 100%.

So many summers I've thought "if only we could have some average-ish weather with sunshine". We will probably do a bit better than average temp-wise after midweek too. Hopefully plenty of sun and not too many showers around.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational looks very acceptable for most of next week, plenty of dry, sunny and warm weather but with some showers around at times despite pressure being relatively high..can't complain about mid 20's celsius, warms up further later next week and the ridge becomes stronger..summery!!!

Edited July 6, 2019 by Jon Snow

[h2005__uk__]

How much adjustment would it take to get some real heat pumping up? Presumably the warm, relatively benign conditions over the next week would assist any heating.

[Methuselah]

Good viewing all round, today. Not one model suggests a nasty end to summer.

  

Edited July 6, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

The GEM 12z shows a marked improvement later in the run as high pressure builds in bringing settled and warmer conditions..before that, some fine and warm weather next week, especially further south early next week but then pressure falls slightly and it becomes increasingly showery for a time before that BIG improvement!!!

Edited July 6, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

44 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

How much adjustment would it take to get some real heat pumping up? Presumably the warm, relatively benign conditions over the next week would assist any heating.

A similar situation to what we just received 2 weeks down the line would bring more extreme heat. SSTs would be increasing and with the ground drying it would aid the situation even more so... Other than that, a scenario like the chart I have posted would also raise a few eyebrows.

Edited July 6, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

A generally very decent GEFS 12z mean, plenty of ridging / high pressure and temperatures on the warm side of average at times, especially further s / se..it's not settled all the time by any means but I think predominantly fine until well into low res is a fair assessment of this run, it's a very slack looking pressure field for most of the time but signs of probably tending to more of a N / S split later!!

Edited July 6, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Quite a nice set of GEFS ensembles too!

   

   

[Frosty.]

On the face of it the Ecm 12z operational looks benign next week with plenty of warm fine weather due to ridging, of course you can't see fronts or where showers would develop but for mid summer it ain't bad, becoming warmer again following this weekend's relatively cooler / fresher blip!!!

Edited July 6, 2019 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

ECM provides a pleasant run with generally warm air next week- uppers look very respectable..

[Captain Shortwave]

The UKMO/ECM both take a shallow system south east through the UK Thursday into Friday, not before we see temperatures approach 80f again before the fronts arrive and then we are back where we are now with a slack northerly ushering cooler conditions in with a few showers.

GFS on the other hand with a stronger jet stream seems to keep the Azores high close to the UK and keeps conditions mostly fine and warm until the start of week 2.

Hard to make a call beyond this, all the models want to bring about a more dynamic pattern but will this get watered down into something much slacker as the days go by.

Edited July 6, 2019 by Captain Shortwave

[MATTWOLVES 3]

A look at the mean suggests plenty of fine weather on offer, especially away from the NW.. Still quite a slack flow at times which obviously indicates no domineering set up.. Overall I think its not a bad effort. Still plenty of scope for improvement, but it could be so much worse. 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean isn't bad at all for the majority, plenty of azores ridging which weakens at times enabling some heavy and thundery showers to break out but I see a lot of fine, warm sunny weather and respectable temperatures!

Edited July 6, 2019 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

Well all things considered i would suggest the 1st half of July now looks likely to fall into the nice category ..its not unreasonable to say pressure looks likely to fall generally at our latitude as we pass mid month so the door might open for something more unsettled , EC mean keeps the UK generally OK temp wise out to day 10, actually next week might become very warm again at times in the south..

day 10 mean still warm

Edited July 6, 2019 by northwestsnow

[h2005__uk__]

2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

A similar situation to what we just received 2 weeks down the line would bring more extreme heat. SSTs would be increasing and with the ground drying it would aid the situation even more so... Other than that, a scenario like the chart I have posted would also raise a few eyebrows.

Didn't what happened last weekend spring out of nowhere (GFS was the first to pick up on it if I remember)? Hopefully something else will similarly spring out.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Didn't what happened last weekend spring out of nowhere (GFS was the first to pick up on it if I remember)? Hopefully something else will similarly spring out.

Yes, plenty of opportunity for some more extreme heat. August hopefully this time around will deliver something out of the ordinary!! ECM mean showing that gradual decrease in pressure by day 10,but the op was a bit more stringent with it than the mean! 

[Guest]

Well it’s all undoubtedly a highly usable and enjoyable spell but from a weather enthusiasts perspective it’s an utter borefest! Can’t imagine it would be a popular post in winter saying ooh an average 8c and no snow, awesome.....

In such a slack pattern a couple of millibar swing could make a huge difference, pressure drops a touch and it could open the gate to the Atlantic, if our ridging can bump to ~1025mb it’s got a chance of sitting over us and pulling in something warmer/hotter and potentially thundery. Will be interesting to see which way it goes.  

[Sky Full]

We have enjoyed this very pleasant summery spell over the last week or so, even if it has been non-record breaking, but it hasn't redeemed the season yet, as far as I am concerned.  We need a three to four week spell of high summer weather to make 2019 memorable and there's not much sign of this happening in the models this morning.   The GFS 0Z shows a 7-8 period after +192 influenced mostly by low pressure, unsettled with a westerly/north westerly airflow and average temperatures at best.  

  

Still plenty of time for this to be revised, of course - it's a long way off in modelling terms!   

[Methuselah]

The GEFS 00Z ensembles still promise an outlook dominated by nothing in particular, with temps never deviating too far from average:

  

Pressure graph looks to be a tad more sine wave-like in appearance, and there look like being one or two potentially thundery spells/showers of rain:

   

Any comparisons with 'average' January weather do, therefore, seem a tad silly?

Edited July 7, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 00z there's plenty to suggest the azores high / ridge will keep building in or at least keep trying to build in as we go through the rest of July, some showery interludes mixed in...temperatures look respectable for the most part, sometimes very warm, especially for the s / se.

[johnholmes]

I've not posted my comments in here on what the surface weather might be from my use of the 500 mb anomaly charts largely because the GFS output seems to 'awol' most days. Has anyone any idea why this is or where I might get its output from please?

Anyway still no GFS this morning so using just ECMWF and NOAA suggests this to me

So to SUN 7th

Ec in okay but no gfs again, no idea why it now appears in full so rarely, must ask on Net Wx!

Anyway ec shows a general w’ly flow with some ridging in uk area out towards area between Iceland and Greenland, so no total trough or ridge set up and little signal for any marked ridging from a s’ly area

Noaa looks not unlike ec so a pattern something like the two seems the most likely in the next 6-10 days

Its 8-14 shows a generally fairly slack w’ly flow so our weather perhaps a day or two of settled with ridging in charge, maybe a day or two longer then less settled for a few days. Nothing I can see, IF these two are correct, to suggest any prolonged heatwave showing up in the next 2 weeks at least?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

[Uncle_Barty]

In other words John.. changeable but not disastrous!

[northwestsnow]

All looks fairly average temp wise with sunshine and some showers around.Next weekend, as it stands  looking warm and settled.

The mid month timeframe looks a little more complicated, GFS wants to bring in the Atlantic, EC less convinced.

 

[Methuselah]

06Z at T+87 and it's more of what we've become accustomed to seeing: a veritable smorgasbord of shallow lows and weak ridges -- temps a few degrees above the average...

  

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

All looks fairly average temp wise with sunshine and some showers around.Next weekend, as it stands  looking warm and settled.

The mid month timeframe looks a little more complicated, GFS wants to bring in the Atlantic, EC less convinced.

 

Not sure about next weekend being warm and settled yet...



ECM/UKMO/GEM all have a trough down the east on Saturday. 

As it stands it's the GFS out on it's own with the ridge more dominant, and things dry and settled.