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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

GEM is a really good run this evening - showing how you can have northern blocking not wreck the UK weather. Atlantic trough staying enough out of the way to keeps things warm and mainly decent across the UK. I’d bank that any day.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I'm liking the GEM alot, high pressure is never to far away from the S/SW, and temperatures are always on the impressive side... Me love it long time. 

gem-0-144.png

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gem-0-240 (1).png

Edited by Mattwolves
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5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GEM is a really good run this evening - showing how you can have northern blocking not wreck the UK weather. Atlantic trough staying enough out of the way to keeps things warm and mainly decent across the UK. I’d bank that any day.

GEM is by far the best and keeps the 10c 850pha isotherm over southern England and would keep temps here in the mid twenties into next week. However it’s an outlier compared to the other models which  rapidly introduce cooler conditions through the weekend, possibly ending up below average by Sun/Mon. I’m not buying the current outlook beyond the weekend, it’s almost looking like uncertainly is rife beyond D5.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Quite strong HLB in the medium term with the gfs this evening resulting a lively westerly upper flow across the Atlantic. This portends relatively cool and changeable weather but the set up is such the detail likely trickier than usual to determine so I for one will be sticking more to the the formula of getting the reliable five day period under the belt and then taking it from there.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-3105600.thumb.png.2c921761dc3f4db7df12a22da412aadf.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

GEM is a really good run this evening - showing how you can have northern blocking not wreck the UK weather. Atlantic trough staying enough out of the way to keeps things warm and mainly decent across the UK. I’d bank that any day.

Generally speaking northern blocking is not the be all and end all in summer, particularly down here in the SE. Plenty of very pleasant days ahead.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
2 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Generally speaking northern blocking is not the be all and end all in summer, particularly down here in the SE. Plenty of very pleasant days ahead.

It’s not - but more often than not it won’t lead to good weather here as the storm track is forced on our trajectory. ECM also does a good job of holding things at bay and keeping it mainly fine.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Fantastic ecm!!high pressure all of a sudden engulfs the united kingdom at t144 hours and extends this current warm spell even further!!love it!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

MUCH better EC this evening with the azores high riding to the rescue at 144..

 

Yes excellent ECM out to day 8. It’s only really the far N/NW of Scotland that sees any rain over the next week. Plenty of Azores ridging bringing fine and settled weather to the bulk of the country. 

Sunday to Thursday charts:

9FF9B6FB-C85A-47FB-83E5-751B0F62C2B3.thumb.png.2a064c8cb83e666c2d2c1187130c6e0b.png

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358D91E2-A719-430B-A7B9-D618A3F9AD8C.thumb.png.5d5508983e3170079a65a47f732a8c96.png

B7B30826-167D-4F3D-BF9D-619B13DD201E.thumb.png.0c96128c725f4fe71ae7800c243109c7.png

205F6966-4141-453D-9B15-39BF4F0012DD.thumb.png.285887f567e0f0a3c98f068fb66ab0ec.png

 

D7B7B1BE-A574-419C-A20B-6CCCEA5ABC54.png

Edited by danm
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Following a bit of a wobble towards the end of this week the Ecm 12z operational gets right back on track with more summery weather returning next week...the next few days look increasingly good too..it's better than the 0z!!!

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I wasn't expecting the ECM to follow the GEM... Fantastic run... Well pleased... I had a feeling the trough to the NE was being overplayed.... I still can't believe how good it is. 

ECM1-120.gif

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ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-192.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Quite an interesting ecm this evening. It tracks the previously mentioned upper low east and it is absorbed by the TPV by T96. But subsequent to that the energy flows around the now intensifying Greenland/East Arctic ridge then ensure the upper trough that breaks from the main lobe then tracks west north of Scotland. This paves the way for the Azores subtropical high to connect north with the Arctic high pressure

Well that's the theory

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-2414400.thumb.png.c9de3e3590f83f4b570f9b6cec93fd4f.pngecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-2500800.thumb.png.b250c49edd35b62721301de562fad5e5.pngecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-2587200.thumb.png.d7002e179b4faa4b8b3f243958c43048.png

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_speed-2587200.thumb.png.96e75981560f04d4fb72bfe4558ec9a1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

It's reasonable obvious looking at the above that slight adjustments to the orientation of the ridge/trough complex will alter the energy flows and thus a different ball game unfolds. As illustrated by the EPS. This area is far from a done deal

t120.thumb.png.4d1203967398c7bee9664ef77accb5a2.pngt144.thumb.png.191db31dbde0e2da94f5a6192fe99040.pngt168.thumb.png.09043784f57277385d9b7aee61faa287.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Much better mean than the last couple of days. Relatively happy with that. 

EDM1-120.gif

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EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is pretty good, azores ridging into the uk and that pesky trough further east, could be a predominantly decent spell for much of the uk, the exception probably the far n / ne..I would say things are looking better next week than they were a day or two ago.

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Both GFS and ECM have greenland blocking disintegrating after about D8. If we can just get lucky like in the ECM and have high pressure over us during the strong greenland block (D4-7) then things are looking good.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ext EPS continues to promote blocking to the north west of the UK with a fairly benign westerly upper flow running to a weak trough in the eastern Atlantic Nothing particularly dramatic lurking in the woodshed with this scenario with temps creeping up just above average and something for the det runs to get their teeth into, This evening's NOAA is not adverse to this.

9-14.thumb.png.ec0917557c36bed6e56632fe185f56ca.png814day_03.thumb.gif.6cbd72e28b6488008b20228cdf2f7186.gif

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

Is it even possible to have strong Greeny Blocking and heatwaves/High Pressure over us at the same time? If so give me some examples of years? I always thought Greenies were a summer lovers worst enemy.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Looked at the temps for the ECM - a lot of days getting into the 80Fs if it comes off. Warm all up the east coast next week too! Is it a flash in the pan? 

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Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Location: Portsmouth

Where have all the Queens gone who stated the end of summer was here based on one run? 

Being realistic the south looks very pleasant for the foreseeable with temps into the mid 20’s easily.  A northerly generally brings the highest temps to places such as Lee on Solent, Portsmouth, Gosport and Southampton, alas forecasters generally don’t predict this, it’s frustrating. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

So the ECM 12z did a great job demonstrating the sort of corrections anticipated by Tamara in her sublime post this morning.

It's still a little suspiciously flat with the N. Atlantic jet profile to my eyes, but a good deal more believable than the FV3 interpretations of today.

It certainly is encouraging to see the Arctic heights relaxing a bit with time - signs of the shutdown to Pacific support taking effect.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham

cold front sinking south Friday according to beeb just then. Cool weekend

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
19 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

cold front sinking south Friday according to beeb just then. Cool weekend

You have to wonder if they are actually taking into account the latest ECM ensembles and dets when they issue there evening forecasts!!!! Personally I've not watched a BBC forecast since the met was relieved of there contract!! yes it does cool down a tad the weekend but I feel it warms up again next week. 

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