Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Agreed, the 850's don't look bad at all, especially further south so plenty of warm weather at least, particularly in any sunshine.

Hey Karl.... ECM must be in meltdown mode, the mean has still not started rolling... Its had enough... Packed its bags... Will be posting it as soon has its updated mate, unless you beat me to it.

[danm]

A messy ECM in the latter stages of the run, but in the semi reliable timeframe (out to day 7), it’s predominantly dry with sunny spells and some warmth further south. It’s only really northern Scotland that has brushes with the occasional low pressure system, and some rain at times. 

Thursday to Saturday in particular could become pretty warm down south. 

Friday 850’s:

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm mean folks.... Its still decent away from the N/NE. obviously better the further SW you are... I've certainly seen worse. 

[SMU]

WOW look at the NAO / AO trending over the last few days - they are in nosedive again...

As we dip away on the NAO towards -2  thats generally enough pressure differential to keep the continental heat to the south & the jet close to the UK- 

A very tight pattern here with summer heat hanging in the balance ...

We could be back to early June with central / Eastern European heat but Northern / NW europe having a chill...

 

 

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Oh no not again this month 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

WOW look at the NAO / AO trending over the last few days - they are in nosedive again...

As we dip away on the NAO towards -2  thats generally enough pressure differential to keep the continental heat to the south & the jet close to the UK- 

A very tight pattern here with summer heat hanging in the balance ...

We could be back to early June with central / Eastern European heat but Northern / NW europe having a chill...

 

 

Really the last thing many of us would want to see Steve, esp when we saw none of this through Nov/Dec/Jan through the Winter..

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really the last thing many of us would want to see Steve, esp when we saw none of this through Nov/Dec/Jan through the Winter..

 

 

I'm not to concerned Northwest, we still have exeter only talking about possibly more unsettled in the last week of July, and even then it seems to be the NW of the uk that gets the worst deal. Look at some of the forecasts going back before the awfull June period, how many was talking of HLB and dire June conditions a few weeks before the event!! I'm still favouring a backloaded summer, regardless of what the NAO maybe indicating currently. To have this same set up within a month of each other wouldnt be unlucky.... It would be a miracle.... I'm not having any of it. 

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really the last thing many of us would want to see Steve, esp when we saw none of this through Nov/Dec/Jan through the Winter..

 

 

No its not great but if the pattern relaxes just a bit the UK gets hot & the NW winds strike mainly scandi.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All...! Some serious  blocking from the Artic . Northern blocking at its best tonight...and an amazing undulating jet stream from both models.. ,expect  some intersting weather for July.. PS ....Plenty of convective weather on offer and some beautiful skyscapes ........

[Guest]

Was just reading something on weather underground about the recent heatwave and saw an horrific couple of paragraphs about NAO

Not sure how the images will come out but link in is below, surely not another trough laden August

 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/European-Heat-Wave-Shifts-East-All-Time-Heat-Records-Tumble-Germany

 

 

[damianslaw]

46 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

WOW look at the NAO / AO trending over the last few days - they are in nosedive again...

As we dip away on the NAO towards -2  thats generally enough pressure differential to keep the continental heat to the south & the jet close to the UK- 

A very tight pattern here with summer heat hanging in the balance ...

We could be back to early June with central / Eastern European heat but Northern / NW europe having a chill...

 

 

Yes a trend may be developing here, a return to the base state we were in during much of May and a significant part of June.. southerly tracking jet, and high pressure to the north - no coincidence that we are now in a solar minima..

[summer blizzard]

For those of us who dislike heat it is hard to see a better outlook than the 7-10 day Greenland dominance of the Euro which would almost certainly foreshadow the day 13-16 output of the GFS. 

The Arctic blocking on offer is pretty incredible but the scale of the negative temperature anomolies over a massive part of Europe by day 10 on the Euro (heat is confined south of Italy) is even more groundbreaking. That would be one of the coolest European patterns in decades.

The GFS late in FI highlights the end result once the pattern sets in and the rain starts to fall.

I cant state how amazing tonights models are. These are the types of charts that produce sub 15C July and Augusts.

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

For those of us who dislike heat it is hard to see a better outlook than the 7-10 day Greenland dominance of the Euro which would almost certainly foreshadow the day 13-16 output of the GFS. 

The Arctic blocking on offer is pretty incredible but the scale of the negative temperature anomolies over a massive part of Europe by day 10 on the Euro (heat is confined south of Italy) is even more groundbreaking. That would be one of the coolest European patterns in decades.

The GFS late in FI highlights the end result once the pattern sets in and the rain starts to fall.

I cant state how amazing tonights models are. These are the types of charts that produce sub 15C July and Augusts.

Im not sure many, if any longer range models foresaw the sheer volume of HLB that have dominated since the middle of May, after the extremely poor June the last thing i want to see is these blocking highs re intensify in July too.

Of course i speak as someone who enjoys seasonal weather.

[danm]

Pub run ditches the Scandi trough influence on Monday, Tuesday and Weds - better than the 12z:

 

 

Edited July 1, 2019 by danm

[northwestsnow]

I would be very happy if the latest GFS is correct  ...

No troughs in our locale right out until mid July.

Fingers crossed.

[knocker]

Outlook - although the medium term forecast pattern according to the EPS doesn't obviously facilitate any major incursions from the the subtropical high zones it is a fairly benign westerly upper flow which certainly does not rule out plenty of day to day influence from them. Ergo plenty of dry and sunny weather with, as usual in this pattern, the north west being the exception, particularly the Western Isles.

Meanwhile more detail in the more reliable time frame stating with the NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis and the 0300 UK chart

After a quite chilly start in many places, not the south where it is mild with mist patches, today will be sunny and quite pleasant just about everywhere as the subtropical high to the west becomes more influential. The light showers currently effecting the NW, particularly western Scotland, will fizzle out during the day.

A clear night to follow with temps dropping away but cloud and perhaps the odd spot of rain in the far north of Scotland as a warm front sneaks around the high cell

The warm front is still in close proximity on Wednesday so cloudy in N. Ireland, the north of England and particularly Scotland where again there could be some intermittent rain. Elsewhere a warm and sunny day.

Over Wednesday night and through Thursday the ridge comes under some pressure from the Atlantic region and more frontal systems ingress the north bringing with them some wet and windy weather. Elsewhere another warm and sunny day.

The frontal systems track south east down the country on friday as the trough to the NW tracks east into southern Norway but they are decaying so merely more cloud on another not unpleasant day.

By Saturday where are entering the period briefly discussed last evening where the low over southern Norway is absorbed by the TPV whilst the upper low to the south west takes closer order. So an odd sort of day really, generally sunny, but quite cool down eastern regions with the occasional showers.

[northwestsnow]

Another dry warm and mainly settled UKMO run this morning out to 144-

72hrs

 

96 hrs

120

144

Warmer the further south one heads, perhaps very warm across the south but looks decent for many away from the far north..

 

Edited July 2, 2019 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

To continue briefly with the gfs. Quite a bit of activity to the north east involving the TPV as further troughs run around it but fortunately mush of this misses the UK so Sunday a rather cool day with just the odd shower.

Monday and Tuesday generally more settled as the subtropical high gains more traction once more, northern Scotland again the exception, and the odd incursion from the south west cannot be ruled out.

[Methuselah]

Not a bad set of GEFS 00Z ensembles today, even if the operational seems to have been cloaked:

  

  

It seems that the weekend's nuisance LP has been scaled down a tad, too...which would be no bad thing?

  

[northwestsnow]

Still the UKMO/EC stand off continues- now fairly large disagreement as early as 96hrs!!

Lets just say i'm on team UKMO as EC is really not very nice at all!

 

Edited July 2, 2019 by northwestsnow

[shaky]

25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Still the UKMO/EC stand off continues- now fairly large disagreement as early as 96hrs!!

Lets just say i'm on team UKMO as EC is really not very nice at all!

 

Doubt ecm is wrong at 96 hours!!if it is that would be the first time after a very long time i think!!!ukmo is a beauty this morning and gfs  is a big improvement on yesterday!!

[northwestsnow]

Well EC has me very confused, the weekend is the polar opposite of UKMO , the former being below average 850 wise, the latter, above average 850 wise.

Its very rare for the 2 Euro models to be so different as early as day 4, one of them is clearly very wrong when it comes to the UK weather over the weekend.

Until this is resolved its hard to put too much faith in pretty much anything at the moment, the one consistent is the blocking highs to our NW,N and NE, 

By day 7/8 EC does have the SE tapping into some of the heat building NE out of Spain-

[knocker]

The NH pattern by Sunday lunchtime with the ecm is not dissimilar to the gfs with strong ridging Greenland/eastern Arctic. complimented by the TPV and positively tilted trough across northern Europe Not to forget the troughs aligned south of the high pressure

So Sunday a relatively cool day with some showers, mainly in the east but over the next three days the trough to the NW and the Atlantic troughs start interacting south of the ridge and by Weds any high pressure influence over the UK has been eroded.

[Frosty.]

Sticking to this week it's looking good with gradually increasing amounts of sunshine and temps into the mid 20's celsius across the south by thursday..not to be sniffed at!

[danm]

Small differences on the macro scale between the UKMO and ECM on Saturday, the latter makes more of the Scandi trough with energy spilling S/SE to temporarily put us in a cooler northerly flow. UKMO keeps the energy to the north of the UK with the bulk of the country under higher pressure without that northerly flow, and warmer as a result. 

 

 

Both then show the SE tapping into some warmer air again by early next week. 

 

Edited July 2, 2019 by danm