Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Pretty good 12z...plenty of warmth, perhaps even some thundery activity to boot with a slack pressure flow over us.... Much more like summer if you ask me. 

[danm]

UKMO & GFS (old) both showing a dry, settled week with some warm sunshine. Becoming warmer by the end of the working week and into next weekend. 

[Frosty.]

The ICON 12z is not so iconic and shows the trough and cool air to the N / NE too close for comfort in the mid range with high pressure / ridging further west than I would like..nothing great is in the bag as things stand but there is very good support from other output.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO as danm just pointed out looking very nice... Heat building towards the S/SW later as well.... Lovely jubiley 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Jon Snow said:

The ICON 12z is not so iconic and shows the trough and cool air to the N / NE too close for comfort in the mid range with high pressure further west than I would like..nothing great is in the bag as things stand but there is good potential from other output.

Should we be overly concerned with icon Karl, GFS UKMO look good... ECM to come, if all those 3 looking good together, icon ain't gonna P on my parade....

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Should we be overly concerned with icon Karl, GFS UKMO look good... ECM to come, if all those 3 looking good together, icon ain't gonna P on my parade....

You're right, hopefully a return to very summery weather with very good support today

[Methuselah]

We don't want to be seeing another blast of North Sea crap, do we?

  

 

[Methuselah]

Much more like it! 

[Frosty.]

Another mostly very good Gem 12z with plenty of settled warm weather, becoming very warm, especially further south, even hot but humid too with an increasing chance of thundery showers!

Edited June 30, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

A stonker-in-waiting?

[Frosty.]

According to the GEFS 12z mean the next five days are shaping up nicely, especially from tuesday for most of the uk with a strong azores ridge in control bringing dry, bright and warm conditions. Beyond the next working week it becomes more problematic with strong support for scandi troughs, a cool Northerly flow and high pressure / ridging pulling back into the atlantic but that's crystal ball gazing..in the meantime it looks very decent for the majority, the probable exception being the far n / ne.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

The models once again have a flow coming up, over and around the high so Sunshine going to be a massive premium for anyone within 50miles of the east coast for most of the week, fortunately I’m not and looks for the most part as though SW will be best all week. 

Still a fair amount to resolve re next weekend, will the scandi trough flex it’s muscles and squeeze out the high pressure, or will high pressure ridge in enough to allow more real warmth In from the south? 

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Still a fair amount to resolve re next weekend, will the scandi trough flex it’s muscles and squeeze out the high pressure

That's exactly what the GEFS 12z mean indicates, so different from the 6z mean in that respect..still hopeful about summery weather returning big time but some nagging doubts..anyone who looks through the 12z GEFS from next weekend onwards will c what I mean.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

That's exactly what the GEFS 12z mean indicates, so different from the 6z mean in that respect..still hopeful about summery weather returning big time but some nagging doubts..anyone who looks through the 12z GEFS from next weekend onwards will c what I mean.

I'm not overly concerned by it Karl, the GFS tends to be the first to pick up on a pattern change idea, but also becomes the first to drop the idea... I think we are looking good into the middle of the month... I think the scandi trough idea will be modelled further East in due course, I'm expecting high pressure to devop more strongly from the SW.... how do I no all of this.... I've got my contacts mate.....

[Frosty.]

Indeed, ensembles are fickle..I say that whenever they don't show what I want to see but with mystic meg on-board we should be fine.

[danm]

ECM has a segment of the Scandi trough brushing the NE on Friday before high pressure swiftly rebuilds across the entire country again on Saturday and Sunday. 

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Indeed, ensembles are fickle..I say that whenever they don't show what I want to see but with mystic meg on-board we should be fine.

Well, they're certainly a confused-looking bunch, this evening, Karl:

  

  

Though, when considering the other models (and this evo's forecast from Those Who Cannot Be Named, of course) there are some tentative signs of short-lived hot spell around next weekend. Scandi trough permitting!

 

[Frosty.]

Not the best day 10 chart from the Ecm 12z but when has a day 10 chart ever verified precisely?...never!!!!

Edited June 30, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

ECM is poor after day 5, the Scandi trough comes a little too close for comfort and brings in sub 5c 850pha air for most of the UK even when high pressure attempts to reassert, really not liking this solution, cool and probably overcast even though pressure is high. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

16 minutes ago, danm said:

ECM has a segment of the Scandi trough brushing the NE on Friday before high pressure swiftly rebuilds across the entire country again on Saturday and Sunday. 

Then it loses the plot and becomes a car crash at day 9...hopefully the emergency services are quick on the scene to clean that green snot up.... Over to you Mr Mean. 

[Faronstream]

7 hours ago, halny said:

Honestly, in spite of the trough, the weather in Central Europe looks only marginally less good than our own. If anything, the single digit 850s seem to produce moderate surface temperatures more likely to be enjoyed than endured.

The first part of July is modelled to be pretty nice everywhere, from the Med up to Scandinavia, except maybe Iceland. Long may it continue.

15-19 degrees celsius is not pretty nice if you ask me in the beginning of july, and i live in southern scandinavia

[danm]

37 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Then it loses the plot and becomes a car crash at day 9...hopefully the emergency services are quick on the scene to clean that green snot up.... Over to you Mr Mean. 

Too far out in FI to worry about at the moment. 

[Frosty.]

Not the best Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight, scandi trough could become a right pain in the nether regions as time goes on..ouch.

[Snowy L]

Not a great end to the ECM and unfortunately I think that's the likely outcome after next week as the Scandinavian trough intensifies and heights start to build over Greenland.

[thestixx]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Not a great end to the ECM and unfortunately I think that's the likely outcome after next week as the Scandinavian trough intensifies and heights start to build over Greenland.

BBC weather for the week makes the same assertion. The high just never creeps in enough!