Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Frosty.]

Decent output so far today, nothing worse than a north / south split eventually from the Ecm 0z ensemble mean and even by day 10 the azores ridge is lurking with intent!!, most of the week ahead there's a strong azores ridge covering the majority of the uk which is good news for wimbledon. 

Edited June 30, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Summer Sun]

The week ahead is looking quite pleasant for the majority with temps ranging from the mid to upper teens in the north and upper teens to mid 20s in the south and very little rain with high pressure dominating

00z UKMO

Edited June 30, 2019 by Summer Sun

[northwestsnow]

Certainly what is evident this morning is Central Europe will be seeing a big change from the very hot weather they have been enjoying since early May - will be a shock to the system for countries like Poland Belarus Western Russia and the Baltics- demonstrated by the 850s on UKMO for today and then day 7..

today

Day 7

Courtesy of a big Scandy trough..

 

Edited June 30, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

The Gem 0z is wonderful, high summer conditions set to return if it's right!!

[StormChaseUK]

Those charts look like we are swapping our May/June conditions with cen Europe/Russia. 

 

[northwestsnow]

Latest GFS looks set to build the warmth towards next weekend ..

[Methuselah]

What a lovely chart for next weekend? Bring it on, God!

  

[northwestsnow]

By sunday temps climbing into the mid to high 20s again..

And potentially thundery as pressure become quite slack.

Edited June 30, 2019 by northwestsnow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Positive 6z out to day 7..its looking like a good week especially Tuesday onwards, and once again we see temps climbing into high 20s later.. Risk of some thundery conditions to the SW  next weekend! Long way off though, so I'm inclined to say good week of conditions coming up for true summer lovers. 

Edit... Just as our weather improves... Central and western Europe becomes much cooler. Hahah... Have some of the crap we endured for 3 weeks... 

Edited June 30, 2019 by Mattwolves

[northwestsnow]

By the beginning of the following week,(probably getting to unreliable timeframe in fairness), 850s remain high on GFS6Z

Temps still in the warm cat for many.

With pressure slack, potential for some thundery stuff for people who enjoy that ?

Looking good across the board this morning, GFS6Z looks to be upping the ante for another warm/very warm weekend..

Edited June 30, 2019 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

GFS trending towards something more unsettled as we approach the 3rd week in July ...

First 10 days or so look good tho, and if we inc the last 2 or 3 days of June that will be a 2 week mainly warm dry settled spell which is not bad going for the UK.

 

[mushymanrob]

a tale of two models... hard to get them to be as far apart as this, the current ecm and gfs for 00z saturday.... no point then in getting hopeful about more heat next weekend.
 

[daz_4]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Certainly what is evident this morning is Central Europe will be seeing a big change from the very hot weather they have been enjoying since early May - will be a shock to the system for countries like Poland Belarus Western Russia and the Baltics- demonstrated by the 850s on UKMO for today and then day 7..

today

Day 7

Courtesy of a big Scandy trough..

 

Finally! Everything is scorched here. Just hope there is rain coming.

Have to correct you though, May was actually one of the very rare below average months in Central Europe (more than 2C below average). June on the other hand will probably be the warmest on record. 

Edited June 30, 2019 by daz_4

[northwestsnow]

Just now, daz_4 said:

Finally! Everything is scorched here. Just hope there is rain coming.

Have to correct you though, May was actually one of the very rare below average months in Central Europe (more than 2C below average). June on the other hand will probably be warmest on record. 

Thanks Daz for the correction Daz, i have family just to your north in southern Poland and i was under the impression May was nice, or at the very least the 2nd half of May

It might be a temporary respite , i can see things warming up again longer  term for your neck of the woods ..

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GFS 6z has another burst of continental heat next weekend, but lets not hold our breath just watch the North sea get involved lol

[daz_4]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

It might be a temporary respite , i can see things warming up again longer  term for your neck of the woods ..

Yep, I'm not expecting this will last, unfortunately.

[Methuselah]

Still very much on the warm side, come July 11th, though perhaps a little less cut-and-dried. I was hoping to see the Scandinavian LP start to give way, too...

  

[Frosty.]

I'm liking the GEFS 6z mean as we go through the week ahead, becoming increasingly settled and warmer with a strong azores ridge muscling it's way in!!

Edited June 30, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

19 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

GFS 6z has another burst of continental heat next weekend, but lets not hold our breath just watch the North sea get involved lol

Well even if it does we can't complain.... 34c yesterday...

[halny]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Edit... Just as our weather improves... Central and western Europe becomes much cooler. Hahah... Have some of the crap we endured for 3 weeks... 

Honestly, in spite of the trough, the weather in Central Europe looks only marginally less good than our own. If anything, the single digit 850s seem to produce moderate surface temperatures more likely to be enjoyed than endured.

The first part of July is modelled to be pretty nice everywhere, from the Med up to Scandinavia, except maybe Iceland. Long may it continue.

Edited June 30, 2019 by halny

[summer blizzard]

15 hours ago, Singularity said:

Spotted something seriously off with the GEFS this eve. They have a clear Niño standing wave formation in the Pacific, yet they send AAM downward, way down in fact, into the Nina phases of the GWO.

Its like the usual negative bias is on steroids!

I think we see this in the trouble the model has keeping lows to the NE away from us consistently. ECM also prone to this but less markedly overall, historically at least.

 

To be honest what jumps out to me most is not necessarily UK-based... it’s the potential for the unusually sluggish jet (Arctic amplification in effect) and Nino forcing to bring about another exceptional heatwave across W Europe - as others have well noticed via the cut-off low signal west of Portugal. Whether the UK gets more involved or not than this time around, is anyone’s guess!

The westerly wind burst is forecast in the east Pacific which is similar to early June 2017 and 2018. 

It may be worth looking more at a UK high around mid-month than a plume since that’s what we saw then.

Edited June 30, 2019 by summer blizzard

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Even the Navgem setting up another potential plume opportunity by next weekend!! Lots of very decent weather around in the coming week.... Do we deserve it?? I think we do perhaps the mods thinking about setting up another guess the temperatures for next weekend!...

[AderynCoch]

55 minutes ago, halny said:

Honestly, in spite of the trough, the weather in Central Europe looks only marginally less good than our own. If anything, the single digit 850s seem to produce moderate surface temperatures more likely to be enjoyed than endured.

The first part of July is modelled to be pretty nice everywhere, from the Med up to Scandinavia, except maybe Iceland. Long may it continue.

Yep, nothing cool at all in the forecast here. Maybe 26C in ten day's time lol. 

[Singularity]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

The westerly wind burst is forecast in the east Pacific which is similar to early June 2017 and 2018. 

It may be worth looking more at a UK high around mid-month than a plume since that’s what we saw then.

Indeed  - and this tends to drag hot air west across mainland Europe, which may then build north as the high loosens its grip after (hopefully at least) a week or two.

That being where my concern is rooted, though it depends mostly on Arctic amplification prolonging the north-building stage. With any luck the highs up there will relax and allow some colder 850s to establish within trough formations.

[matty007]

5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

By sunday temps climbing into the mid to high 20s again..

And potentially thundery as pressure become quite slack.

Lovely jubbly