Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[matty007]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

As the pattern slowly evolves

It's been frustrating so far this week with cloud keeping the temps down.

However, we really can't write off the June record going on Saturday. 

[mb018538]

Can’t see it going sadly. I think 90f will be breached, but it’s amazing with air that hot we aren’t looking at 35c with a southerly.

[Mike Poole]

Now it is so close, does anyone know if this 24C would be a record for 850 temperature over the UK, ICON 18z T39?

[matty007]

10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Can’t see it going sadly. I think 90f will be breached, but it’s amazing with air that hot we aren’t looking at 35c with a southerly.

You of course may be right. However, I think once we inject a southerly flow with sunshine, those temps will ROCKET.

While it is looking tame currently, that has been due to cloud and the wind direction. I think once we get the aforementioned set up, the record will be under serious threat. I am still sticking to my 36c or thereabouts prediction.

[shaky]

13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Now it is so close, does anyone know if this 24C would be a record for 850 temperature over the UK, ICON 18z T39?

Keep us.up to date mate especially with the 66 hour chart to seen if the 20 degree 850hpa temps cover a larger area of england and wales like arpege and ecmwf!!

[weirpig]

Icon has temps around low 20c on Friday  southern France 44c  scary stuff 

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Icon has temps around low 20c on Friday  southern France 44c  scary stuff 

Whereas the UKV has temperatures of 28°C and 29°C in the Southwest on Friday. 

[weirpig]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Whereas the UKV has temperatures of 28°C and 29°C in the Southwest on Friday. 

Yep icon has 25c in the southwest     most of the country though below that    nice however you look  at it 

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, shaky said:

Keep us.up to date mate especially with the 66 hour chart to seen if the 20 degree 850hpa temps cover a larger area of england and wales like arpege and ecmwf!!

Here's those T66 charts you wanted:

But you can get them here:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

[shaky]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Here's those T66 charts you wanted:

But you can get them here:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

Nice!!!!!pretty much a copy of ecm!!saturday looking like a real scorcher!!!

[weirpig]

29c for middle England  31 ish for London  very warm on the icon   Saturday afternoon 

[Mike Poole]

Only got to wait until Tuesday (T144) on the GFS 18z for the Azores ridge to sort us out our summer, we (some of us anyway) hope:

This weekend's plume was always going to be short lived, although I would have preferred it to be longer than 1 day!  On to the next weather of interest, which is the trend for most if not all models for a period of settled anticyclonic weather for the UK.  Suits me, sir, won't suit everyone...

Edited June 26, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

what is this,opening a gate for another plume

no i haven't messed with the chart lol,even the 8-14 day one has faults,maybe they don't have a clue what is going to happen,bring on some more warmth.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

looks possible.

i would just like to say that i will be enjoying this warm/hot snap fri/sat then a cooler blip then hopefully a warm up next week

enjoy.

 

[StormChaseUK]

18z looks like a warmer plume for UK than the poor attempt we had this week. 6/7 look good!

[ChezWeather]

GFS at 240hrs looking good

 

 

[knocker]

Given the unique scenario unfolding at the moment I think it's worth a glance at the midnight soundings for Camborne, Hurstmonceux and Nottingham as the very warm air starts to edge north and the surface winds pick up in the south courtesy of the surface analysis.

Quite a complicated temp structure in the lower layers

Camborne  24C at 944mb and 17.2C at 850mb with a surface wind of 100/21kts

Hurstmonceux 20.5C at 909mb and 18.2 at 850mb and 15C at 800mb with a surface wind of 090/11

The midday soundings will be an interesting follow up but there is no guarantee there will be one at the last two

Edited June 27, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Edited June 27, 2019 by knocker

[Guest]

Wow quiet in here.....I feel like we are entering a critical period for summer 2019, get a good run in now and the rest will nicely follow. GFS builds high pressure out west next week and it stays there nicely leaving much of the UK dry and pretty sunny, temps high teens to low 20’s. ECM however taking a very different stance bringing back in the Atlantic by 192hrs as high slips back south west. The modelling of the middle to later part next week needs to be locked down, will high pressure remain in charge and go on to give a good July or will it regress back westwards opening the door a spell of unsettled weather and the possibility of another trough getting locked in near the UK? 

[Sky Full]

GFS expects the Azores high to build in solidly over the UK in the first week of July, which is nice...

1st - 5th July (50% confidence?):

....and continues to show dry and settled conditions for the next couple of days as well:

5th - 7th July (25% confidence?):

For the period after that the GFS goes downhill bringing low pressure and unsettled conditions back - but by then it's only 5-10% likely to verify so probably won't happen....hopefully!

 

 

 

 

[Methuselah]

GEFS ensembles look good for a steady warm-up starting around July 4th...though, any hints of a plume-repeat must be considered an outside bet?  But a good opportunity for things to dry out...I do hope that that general decline in SLP (it's in FI!) doesn't come about.

  

  

ECMWF NH profiles look rather good too:

  

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GEFS ensembles look good for a steady warm-up starting around July 4th...though, any hints of a plume-repeat must be considered an outside bet?  But a good opportunity for things to dry out...I do hope that that general decline in SLP (it's in FI!) doesn't come about.

  

  

ECMWF NH profiles look rather good too:

  

Thats 12z mate!apparently the 00z is not as good!!

[knocker]

The ecm looking at changeable weather next week in a westerly upper flow and phasing of the pm and Tm airmasses

[NApplewhite]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GEFS ensembles look good for a steady warm-up starting around July 4th...though, any hints of a plume-repeat must be considered an outside bet?  But a good opportunity for things to dry out...I do hope that that general decline in SLP (it's in FI!) doesn't come about.

  

  

ECMWF NH profiles look rather good too:

  

Long term GFS forecast shows a heatwave on the 5th to 9th July 2019 focused on london with temps of up to 34 to 36. But this is probably FL

 

 

Edited June 27, 2019 by NApplewhite
Add documents

[knocker]

The above is interesting

Edited June 27, 2019 by knocker

[NApplewhite]

Average pressure in July and High pressure throughout August. Sadly the orientation of the High is to the NW so id expect average temperatures due to the NW origin of the air.