Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, J10 said:

Seems very reasonable and a welcome development in that case.

And this evening's fax chart supports that

[Derecho]

2 minutes ago, J10 said:

Seems very reasonable and a welcome development in that case.

Here are the latest temperatures from ARPEGE... maybe a bit on the warm side 

[damianslaw]

Weekend of two halves ahead, Saturday warm for all, very warm for central/eastern and southern parts, cooler for all on Sunday. Timing of atlantic trough/front on Saturday remains uncertain, western parts might hold on to some decent warmth well into Saturday, conversely the heat of Friday may be cut off sharply, the flow will be a SW airstream not direct southerly for western parts.

Into July, preety good synoptics being shown, a cool showery start before high pressure noses in quickly establishing itself over the UK.. with signs it may transfer east and pull in another burst of warm uppers, but not on a par with now.

Much rather have high pressure overhead in first part of July than say late August, much more daylight right now, and that summer good feeling in full gear.

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Here are the latest temperatures from ARPEGE... maybe a bit on the warm side 

Some folks would call those temps 'pleasant', QS...Me, I've got to make do with a measly 29!

Edited June 26, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Paul]

UKV going warmer still

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Paul said:

UKV going warmer still

22 degrees on that

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Some folks would call those temps 'pleasant', QS...Me, I've got to make do with a measly 29!

Must be those breezes off the North Sea 

[Paul]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

22 degrees on that

It's actually warmer earlier in the day in the midlands. 

[Methuselah]

If Friday night's not a sweatbox, in London, Saturday night certainly will be!

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, Paul said:

UKV going warmer still

 

Still warm across NIreland ..

[Mapantz]

7 minutes ago, Paul said:

It's actually warmer earlier in the day in the midlands. 

Yeap. Shows the cloud associated with a decaying front moving in from the West and affecting Wales/Midlands & parts of the Northwest.

[northwestsnow]

Beautiful EC mean, its looking like summer is finally arriving.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well the first 3 weeks of June now looking a distant bad memory... ECM mean brings much more cheer..

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean T240:

Not that shabby if we end up there, and it is consistent with other model output, background signals and even the UKMO updates.  So that's all good!

 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean compliments the operational very nicely..I have a feeling that next week will be more enjoyable than this one!!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

28 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

22 degrees on that

For Stafford Id say 27 to 28C on Saturday.

[Captain Shortwave]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM ensemble mean T240:

Not that shabby if we end up there, and it is consistent with other model output, background signals and even the UKMO updates.  So that's all good!

 

Break off surface high over the UK, with an area of low pressure possibly sitting west of Iberia with the heat never too far away either. If the ECM end are sensing another potential warm up we might begin to see the operational s toying with a deeper low in that region again.

Edited June 26, 2019 by Captain Shortwave

[knocker]

As mentioned in an earlier post the development of the upper low west of Portugal in the det output is interesting and taking it a stage further with mean EPS anomaly indicates why. Thus in conjunction with the TPV over northern Scandinavia facilitates further ridging of the European subtropical high into the UK before it later subsides again

 

[nick sussex]

Vile disgusting heat be gone with you! 

Next week is looking nicer with the high toppling in and pleasantly warm for much of the UK.

Before that some hideous heat over much of western and southern Europe which takes a glancing blow at the UK especially southern and se areas .

As Knocker just mentioned another possible low might set up west of Portugal , that could drive more heat north again in towards the UK.

It’s been quite a turnaround in weather for much of Europe , spring early summer here was very forgettable .

 

 

 

[Man With Beard]

15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM ensemble mean T240:

Not that shabby if we end up there, and it is consistent with other model output, background signals and even the UKMO updates.  So that's all good!

 

@Captain Shortwave, as often happens, has taken the words right out of my mouth - the most logical conclusion from the ECM mean is that a repeat performance may be on the cards for next weekend - trough SW, high pressure close to the UK and starting to fade - though highly unlikely to have such hot upper air again. That said, France looks like turning into a furnace once more so any pure southerly flow will be hot.

I recall late summer 2016 got into this pattern after an average start - that was one the hottest August / Septembers of recent times. I wonder if this will become the pattern for the rest of summer 2019 (**this is not a forecast - DISCLAIMER!!! **) .

[chapmanslade]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Light hearted banter involving the ups and downs throughout the week. And surface temp s were being predicted to be at nearly 35c, and this coming from the Met Office.... I find that rather extreme for June mate. 

There have been no ups and downs through the week. Saturday is the exception where the NE wind finally drops but the rest of the week has struggled to exceed 20C even in the south despite the uppers being higher. The 'discussion' and 'confusion' about uppers not translating into surface temperatures has gone on for the last 10 days !

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

There have been no ups and downs through the week. Saturday is the exception where the NE wind finally drops but the rest of the week has struggled to exceed 20C even in the south despite the uppers being higher. The 'discussion' and 'confusion' about uppers not translating into surface temperatures has gone on for the last 10 days !

10 day's... Bit extreme.. I made a light hearted post regarding the emotions of the last week with regards to this plume, that's all. Perhaps it's time to move on, it's becoming a grind now. 

Edited June 26, 2019 by Mattwolves

[feb1991blizzard]

44 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

If Friday night's not a sweatbox, in London, Saturday night certainly will be!

Id prefer a Wetbox!!

[Mike Poole]

12z JMA take on things, here T54:

I think what I would say to those moaning about this or that, I've never seen a 850 temps surge into the UK like this, that is now going to happen, let's see what happens on Saturday folks, it might be interesting....

Moving on T192 shows the Azores ridge scenario that is practically priced in now as so many models show it.....welcome to summer, it's taken a while this year!

Edited June 26, 2019 by Mike Poole

[danm]

49 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Break off surface high over the UK, with an area of low pressure possibly sitting west of Iberia with the heat never too far away either. If the ECM end are sensing another potential warm up we might begin to see the operational s toying with a deeper low in that region again.

Yes and small, subtle shifts in the orientation of the high could allow us to tap into some of the heat over the near continent. So while temperatures are forecast to recover into the mid 20s in the south by the middle of next week, it wouldn’t take much to see it creep up into the high 20s/low 30s. 

Edited June 26, 2019 by danm