Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[shaky]

2 hours ago, shaky said:

Beautiful and has the western extent much further west  for saturday than the earlier gfs run showed!!unless the latest 12 run has backed it west slightly aswell?

Take a look at the ecm at 72 hours what an upgrade for saturday!!20 degree 850 way west and north now!!did not expect that!!looks like its gona be a seriously hot one for england and wales

[Methuselah]

The 12Z ensembles are here...No back-down on the uppers, so it looks like it's the 2m-forecasts, made by humans, that have been in error?

  

  

I see there's one member going for a one-day-wonder heat-burst on July 7th. Sssshhh -- I don't think it's a trend though!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Spot on shaky.... ECM follows icon with having the heat much further West than the GFS did....result..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Take a look at the ecm at 72 hours what an upgrade for saturday!!20 degree 850 way west and north now!!did not expect that!!looks like its gona be a seriously hot one for england and wales

full agreement for days now though of much fresher from the west on Sunday, still should be good though, cannot be much worse than today,, E'lys really bad here

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Spot on shaky.... ECM follows icon with having the heat much further West than the GFS did....result..

23C uppers as high as London at 1pm, perfect flow from the south, probably mainly sunny ... on the face of it, should be in the running to break the June record, but I'm so confused now!!! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

23C uppers as high as London at 1pm, perfect flow from the south, probably mainly sunny ... on the face of it, should be in the running to break the June record, but I'm so confused now!!! 

I think MWB you can join one hell of a long list of confused. Com folk on here right now... All week its been.... Will it.... Won't it.... Is it..... Isn't it.... Oh the saga...

[northwestsnow]

Hopefully all systems go now for some proper summer weather- i'm going to stick my neck out and say EC 12Z will be an improvement on the 00Z run..

144

[Portsmouth Sun]

It’s always fun to come on here and have a giggle at what people write...  However in the real world Saturday looks good with a brisk southerly finally bringing the first hot day of the year, followed by a cooler blip before a decent high brings settled mild days with temps potentially hitting 25c.   Down here on the Hampshire Riviera it’s been a pleasant 24/25c today, but a few more degrees wouldnt go amiss. 

[Mike Poole]

The end of the ECM 12z looking really promising for a spell of settled summer weather, T192:

Always a good sign, and a strong feature of last summer, when a ridge from the Azores leads to a break off high to our east as this chart shows. T216:

A warm settled start to July looking good now.

Edited June 26, 2019 by Mike Poole

[chapmanslade]

25 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I think MWB you can join one hell of a long list of confused. Com folk on here right now... All week its been.... Will it.... Won't it.... Is it..... Isn't it.... Oh the saga...

There has been nothing confusing. At no point have surface temperatures ever been predicted to be extreme, only in the minds of some on here whose enthusiasm exceeds what is put in front of them.

 

There has been no will it or won't it - it never has been predicted to be anything other than pleasant at the surface - the explanation has been posted numerous times.

[knocker]

As the pattern slowly evolves

[northwestsnow]

EC is glorious this evening and ends with another plume close to the south coast..

[weirpig]

Arpege still the hottest showing around 32 33c  been very consistent  with this  

Edited June 26, 2019 by weirpig

[Derecho]

8 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

There has been nothing confusing. At no point have surface temperatures ever been predicted to be extreme, only in the minds of some on here whose enthusiasm exceeds what is put in front of them.

 

There has been no will it or won't it - it never has been predicted to be anything other than pleasant at the surface - the explanation has been posted numerous times.

Despite the fact Meto video forecasts were predicting temperatures in the early-mid 30s as soon as two days ago in their video forecasts? It was clearly finely poised.

Yes temperatures may well not hit anything special on Thursday and Friday but who is to say that won't happen on saturday. Temperatures forecast by GFS on sunday were 3-5C lower then what actually occurred today where the sun came out today as an example. 

Plus if you are criticising enthusiasm then you have come to the wrong forum? Especially when there is such an unusual synoptic situation at hand.

Edited June 26, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[MATTWOLVES 3]

First the plume then the summer fantastic Mr bombastic... High pressure... From day 5 its beginning to build, then for those that missed out on plume 1....we have a potential plume part 2 towards day 9/10...utterly flabbergasting run.... I think I need a ly down to recover...

[Captain Shortwave]

Much better ECM, a little too flat to allow the heat to our south to move northwards again with real intent, but still warm and dry for many.

Before then, the weekend looks decent. Hot and sunny for many on Saturday and whilst cooler, aside from showers in western Scotland, Sunday looks decent too with temperatures in the south holding in the mid-twenties.

Arpege predictions;

   

Edited June 26, 2019 by Captain Shortwave

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

As the pattern slowly evolves

29 in manchester on saturday - that is plenty hot enough for me

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

There has been nothing confusing. At no point have surface temperatures ever been predicted to be extreme, only in the minds of some on here whose enthusiasm exceeds what is put in front of them.

 

There has been no will it or won't it - it never has been predicted to be anything other than pleasant at the surface - the explanation has been posted numerous times.

Light hearted banter involving the ups and downs throughout the week. And surface temp s were being predicted to be at nearly 35c, and this coming from the Met Office.... I find that rather extreme for June mate. 

[Mike Poole]

As we now get to close range for the Saturday heat fest, interesting to look at something new on Meteociel, which is the ARPEGE ensemble PEARP.  Here is the probability of exceeding 30C 2m temperature at T81:

[J10]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

As the pattern slowly evolves

Very noticable that the warm temps stay much longer in Western areas compared to previous runs. 4c warmer forecast was was even suggested yesterday.

[knocker]

The ecm developing an upper low at the base of the trough at T156 could be interesting

[Frosty.]

Really good Ecm 12z operational with plenty of high pressure and warmth with another surge of very warm uppers from the south @ T+240..early July would be summery if this run is close to reality!

Edited June 26, 2019 by Jon Snow

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, J10 said:

Very noticable that the warm temps stay much longer in Western areas compared to previous runs. 4c warmer forecast was was even suggested yesterday.

Possible due to slower movement of the front?

[J10]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Possible due to slower movement of the front?

Seems very reasonable and a welcome development in that case.

[Djdazzle]

20 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

There has been nothing confusing. At no point have surface temperatures ever been predicted to be extreme, only in the minds of some on here whose enthusiasm exceeds what is put in front of them.

 

There has been no will it or won't it - it never has been predicted to be anything other than pleasant at the surface - the explanation has been posted numerous times.

35C is pretty extreme for June though. And that is a real possibility on Sat.