Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Frosty.]

26 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It’s been a totally rubbish plume

It doesn't even arrive until friday?

[Interitus]

Understandably, there's been a lot of focus on the 850 temperatures. Of course this is above any land surface in the UK. However, the cool marine boundary layer which is pegging back surface temperatures is quite shallow so theoretically there is the possibility that some of the highest temperatures, particularly on Thursday and Friday, could be achieved at altitude across the peaks of the highest Welsh mountains, above the inversion.

For example, using the Arpege model, for 10pm Thursday, temperatures near sea level in parts of south Wales are around a warm 18 or 19 degrees. The 850 mb temperature is a ridiculous 24+ degrees, but the warmest values are actually a bit lower down such that it is around 26 degrees at and above the 925 mb level which at 865 metres altitude could be encountered on the highest of the Brecon Beacons.

Similarly on Friday afternoon, with 850 temps around 22°C in north Wales, there is approaching 27 degrees at 900mb at the height of Snowdon and the highest Carneddau mountains.

[Azazel]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

It doesn't even arrive until friday?

True, but it was supposed to arrive early this week and last 4-5 days. Now it's a 2-day affair with disappointing 2m temps considering the insane uppers. So I would agree, it's been a bit rubbish.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Yes the back end of this mornings ECM looks pretty poor, with cool conditions becoming more likely. The 10c 850 isotherm is completely absent from our shores beyond this weekend.

Personally I really don’t like the mean charts, large divergence can give misleadingly good charts upon first sight.

Nonsense yet again, I've actually enjoyed a lot of your posts this week but straight back to the glass half empty this morning I see.

This is the ECM as far as it goes- doesn't look bad to me even if that chart comes to fruition. It wouldn't be cracking the flags in that setup but certainly around average. Considering this run is also a slight outlier I don't think you have grounds to call the outlook 'poor'.

[StormChaseUK]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

That's ridiculous, it got to 21.2C in February this year!

I wish that's quite high for this June and current temps.  Some places will see half of that today.

Currently got 11C , last week models expected 30C.  It was close though the plume reached France and moved east,  we were close to it reaching the UK very fine line but never did.

[Frosty.]

I don't like this having a go at other posters in the open forum, just send a pm or a sticky note or hit the report button as ed said..I'm sure this will be deleted even though I'm only trying to help!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, StormChaseUK said:

I wish that's quite high for this June and current temps.  Some places will see half of that today.

Currently got 11C , last week models expected 30C.  It was close though the plume reached France and moved east,  we were close to it reaching the UK very fine line but never did.

Ahem.

That's a huge plume of hot 850s ?

Of course we know now this will not directly translate to surface conditions but to say this plume reached France and moved east is not backed up the NWP this morning..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Don't tell me we are going back to the negativity we had throughout most of June again.. ECM mean looks just peachy. And what's all this 1 day wonder in the SE! I'm seeing cloud clearing to sunny sky's from Thursday through to Saturday... With temps responding... 24-30c being achieved in quite a few places where cloud clears. If that's a bad forecast I must be posting in the 2108 summer thread..

[Stevetynant]

All looks pretty positive to me- lets not forget where we've just come from in Spring 2019

[northwestsnow]

Just now, StormChaseUK said:

A chart for Saturday.

Whats in front of my eyes today is 11C drizzle 

Until they actually occur all computer models are fiction.  

Lets see how things progress, i can understand the frustration with today's conditions- hopefully things will really begin to improve tomorrow onwards

[Mapantz]

Right, let's give it a rest eh?

As I said yesterday, it will get warmer for many and hot for some by Friday/Saturday. If you're here to moan, don't press the submit button, move it to the moans/banter thread. Thanks.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Nice few warm/hot days coming then a slight cool down Come beginning next week. Then azores trying to ridge east towards the UK late next week all FI. . Bit of a wobble regarding the latter this morning. On the ecm and gfs. Minds gfs looks better after the cool down. More runs needed. Ps sat on sofa waiting for sun To break thru. Predicted to clear this afternoon in. My location. 

[Methuselah]

Friday night looks like being a right sweatbox?

 

[Downpour]

55 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Don't tell me we are going back to the negativity we had throughout most of June again.. ECM mean looks just peachy. And what's all this 1 day wonder in the SE! I'm seeing cloud clearing to sunny sky's from Thursday through to Saturday... With temps responding... 24-30c being achieved in quite a few places where cloud clears. If that's a bad forecast I must be posting in the 2108 summer thread..

32c possible, even likely, in London on Saturday. Then day after day of 24c plus for the foreseeable., according to the models. Quite a remarkable turnaround from the cool conditions of early June. 

Those who relish severe heat should get on the train to Avignon, where it will be 40c+ within 48 hours. Not my cup of tea, but whatever floats your boat. 

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Ahem.

That's a huge plume of hot 850s ?

Of course we know now this will not directly translate to surface conditions but to say this plume reached France and moved east is not backed up the NWP this morning..

Yes, have we ever seen 23c 850s over the UK before? 

[weirpig]

Whats likely now  is a delay on the very hot Temps until possibly Friday    however still warm    Saturday at present looks the hottest day with Temps  possibly hitting mid 30s  maybe higher   for areas inland   so for those who like to feel like living in a furnace  this could be right up your street.   chart taken from the Arpege  which shows Temps at 8pm 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

No complaints from me so far regarding the 6z..high pressure looks to be the controlling factor mid next week onwards... I would say low to mid 20s at this stage for temperatures... Not everyone likes intense heat so this should come as a pleasent addition. 

[Guest]

 

48 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Friday night looks like being a right sweatbox?

 

Well not really, temps look lower than last night, Down to around 16/17C in London, low teens elsewhere. 

[Frosty.]

I can't see any downgrade from the Ecm 0z ensemble mean, looks even better than yesterday regarding early July!

[Captain Shortwave]

^You best me to it, the Arpege (usually pretty decent at forecasting maxima) has 32-34c across a good part of England on Saturday. 29c across Dorset on Friday with low to mid twenties on Friday. 

Money thing I have noticed is the progression of the cold front later on Saturday is appearing to be slower than modelled over the last couple of days which allows for a wider area of hot to very hot conditions across England at least.

Even the GFS has 29c for Saturday on the 06z so correcting in the right direction.

As for next week, some operationals are trying to place that deeper arctic low in probably the worst position imaginable (Towards Scandinavia), this encourages more or a cool northerly feed shown this morning. We really need that to shift further east (no impact on the NW Europe profile), or west (flatter westerlies but the jet will be far enough north to keep a large part of the Uk fine and settled).

Edited June 26, 2019 by Captain Shortwave

[Methuselah]

Not bad. Not bat at all!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 

Well not really, temps look lower than last night, Down to around 16/17C in London, low teens elsewhere. 

The GFS and ICON 6z probably agreeing with you there Alderc. 

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

^You best me to it, the Arpege (usually pretty decent at forecasting maxima) has 32-34c across a good part of England on Saturday. 29c across Dorset on Friday with low to mid twenties on Friday. 

Money thing I have noticed is the progression of the cold front later on Saturday is appearing to be slower than modelled over the last couple of days which allows for a wider area of hot to very hot conditions across England at least.

Even the GFS has 29c for Saturday on the 06z so correcting in the right direction.

Further afield what it also shows  is Temps could  be as high as 28c  during the night in Paris   Now that is a sweat box. 

Edited June 26, 2019 by weirpig

[Coopsy]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 

Well not really, temps look lower than last night, Down to around 16/17C in London, low teens elsewhere. 

Agreed - probably because there'll be little cloud around so it'll cool off better than it did last night

[Guest]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

The GFS and ICON 6z probably agreeing with you there Alderc. 

Yep, and has been stated so many times now the elevated 850's aren't really affecting surface conditions both during the day or at night. If they were overnight mins from tonight wouldn't fall below 20C for much of E+W for the next three nights following the very hot days......still thats another story.