Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[J10]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

The 12Z GEFS ensembles also look okay, with only 2 days forecast to not exceed 20C.

  

  

Even the gradual fall in SLP is reserved for FI...

The ppn charts looks great, especially after recent weather.

[Derecho]

Rinse and repeat from the ECM....

But will we see some more cool air off the North Sea ?, or will some warm air be picked up in the flow this time?

A cooler spell before then but it doesn't look like lasting too long as things stand.

[Mike Poole]

Well even if we still don't have any clear idea of what temperatures we might get at peak plume on Saturday, the 10 day timescale looks easier to predict now, with models trending to a UK high, ridge from the Azores, or close to it, certainly from this afternoons runs and this mornings too, example ECM 12z T240:

With AAM predicted (by CFS) to remain positive and increasing into July, would seem to support such a scenario, which might start to look a little like last year.

I'd urge caution at this stage though about how long into the new month this pattern might last, same model CFS mixed on averages for July as a whole, here the latest 4 runs:

And then you have GloSea5 predicting above average temperatures consistently, but no clear signal on precipitation, I'm thinking a kind of tango between warm and dry, and occasional plume scenarios, but a meridional jet stream and little in terms of Atlantic domination as we go through July?  At the mercy of where the wiggles set up shop...Just my musings, of course.   

Edited June 25, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm not gonna give a boom for the plume... But I'm certainly gonna give one for the ECM mean.... Highpressuretastic... New word also sure signs of another warm up in the latter stages... One to watch..... You beauty ECM... 

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening everyone! The Spanish Plume is giving well above temperatures in France rather than Spain, The Uk may well see one hot day , and then the Atlantic comes in for awhile , pressure builds next week, for a while , and then the undulating jet stream starts again , build of pressure across the Artic , another plume ? Good news as we go into July for growers and gardeners your garden will be warm and wet

[northwestsnow]

Yup, EC mean has the UK warm with the jet to the north by day 10-

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens for the latter stages suggests the Azores ridge will elongate into the UK, no signs yet of the surface high displacing into Europe to allow hot conditions to develop, but it looks dry for many with warm or very warm conditions (low to mid twenties). A decent start to July looks very likely tonight.

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

ECM ens for the latter stages suggests the Azores ridge will elongate into the UK, no signs yet of the surface high displacing into Europe to allow hot conditions to develop, but it looks dry for many with warm or very warm conditions (low to mid twenties). A decent start to July looks very likely tonight.

For some reason July has always been my favorite month , the 1st week minimum looks very respectable ...The EC mean is indeed pointing to an extended settled spell..

I think one of my favorite July's of yesteryear would have been 1983- 

It turned out to be a really nice month,a snapshot of how the month began..

Edited June 25, 2019 by northwestsnow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here's the ens graphs folks... Pressure looks pretty steady, and the mean after dipping springs back to life... Funny I said last night, just watch the mean increase as the pressure goes up. Not that I expect brownie points for it.... We all new that.... Either way it looks good.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Here's the ens graphs folks... Pressure looks pretty steady, and the mean after dipping springs back to life... Funny I said last night, just watch the mean increase as the pressure goes up. Not that I expect brownie points for it.... We all new that.... Either way it looks good.

Brilliant- the worst case scenario pressure-wise looks to be around 1020 mb across the south so it would appear, at this juncture, there is little appetite with EC ens for anything unsettled- for the south at any rate.

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z , t850s T66 (hello Bristol) and T90:

But it seems we will have to wait and see what temperatures we see on the ground - where we actually live.

Edited June 25, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Interesting icon.... We can see an area of uppers producing 28c on the 2m temps... I would have thought we could easily add several degrees to these figures. 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Interesting icon.... We can see an area of uppers producing 28c on the 2m temps... I would have thought we could easily add several degrees to these figures. 

Nice colours anyway..at least it will be warm!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Nice colours anyway..at least it will be warm!

Everything always looks better at night Karl... I'm still thinking a couple more twists to come.

[Yarmy]

14 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Interesting icon.... We can see an area of uppers producing 28c on the 2m temps... I would have thought we could easily add several degrees to these figures. 

A mere 44C in the Pyrenees there.  Hold the Föhn.

[StormChaseUK]

19 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Interesting icon.... We can see an area of uppers producing 28c on the 2m temps... I would have thought we could easily add several degrees to these figures. 

Add several degrees on? That would push France to 50C lol

[matty007]

Going past the plume for now.

I must say I agree with Mr Frost earlier in that there is a lot of heat in the continent. You feel it is only a matter of time before we inject a settled, warm airmass. And lots of potential for many more plumes and hot spells.

Looking at the ECM further supports this -




 

Some lovely charts that really bring optimism for July. I have a hunch this may be quite a back loaded Summer and we may finally get a decent August.

Something I often think about -

1983/2003
1976/2006
1983/2013

1959/1989 = 2019?

Edited June 25, 2019 by matty007

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Add several degrees on? That would push France to 50C lol

Lol... Its possible though.. Those temps to the south maybe a little extreme, where as ours may be a little under cooked! 30-32 is surely a good shout for favoured spots!! And that would be pretty good for June. 

Ps.. Completely agree with mattys post above. 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Cloud 10]

Looks a bit scary for many parts of France over the next few days.

 

I hope the Ice-cream van passes Nick Sussex's house.

 

[northwestsnow]

What a lovely sight for summer lovers here in the UK..

Enjoy folks - plenty of walking and fishing and the odd larger shandy might be on the agenda for me ! 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

Looks a bit scary for many parts of France over the next few days.

 

I hope the Ice-cream van passes Nick Sussex's house.

 

You will need to eat the ice cream pretty damn quick in those temperatures!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

What a lovely sight for summer lovers here in the UK..

Enjoy folks - plenty of walking and fishing and the odd larger shandy might be on the agenda for me ! 

But not necessarily in that order....

[northwestsnow]

Classic +NAO pattern with warm air spreading across mainland Europe-

 The usual countries, Spain/Greece/Turkey etc all looking hot.

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Paul_1978]

2 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

ECM ens for the latter stages suggests the Azores ridge will elongate into the UK, no signs yet of the surface high displacing into Europe to allow hot conditions to develop, but it looks dry for many with warm or very warm conditions (low to mid twenties). A decent start to July looks very likely tonight.

That would be spot on, and much better than 30C plus and high humidity, which even a BBC forecaster said today would feel unbearable. 

Looking at tonight’s 18z, the 850 temps seem to want to tail off during the day, so temps might be pegged back as the day progresses. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

All the models agree that a lovely spell of weather is looming, high pressure really running the show right out to day 10 and beyond... Temperatures also beginning to respond. Looking at +12 uppers and beyond bringing temps under sunny conditions towards mid to high 20s I would have though..... Don't ya just love it when a plan comes together.