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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Popular Post
Posted

If at first you don't succeed...6z GFS says try again:

image.thumb.png.6b8e17e1c9a55137d1020cfc38f131d0.pngimage.thumb.png.2fd52b22e3ba46985db925e6fa156a52.png

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

We will probably need to reserve judgement on how much heat can be generated by the set-up until Thursday. Today has too much cloud cover (probably), and tomorrow now doesn't look like clearing up until the afternoon. 

It's on Thursday, when we look fairly guaranteed to get a clear day for most, that we'll see if the models were/are on the money with the uppers/surface temps relationship, or if they're overdoing the effect of the surface air source.

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The Gem 0z is trying..really trying to build in summer in early July with the azores / atlantic high!

gem-0-240.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Guys this situation is far from a done deal, we just can't have any certainty on cloud cover amounts at this stage... Even the met apps are shooting themselves in the foot... 19c predicted for Thursday... But the detailed summary says becoming very warm in sunny spells! Which implies 25+.For sure East coastal areas are going to struggle... Further inland, and towards the West.... Surely to god low 30s! A few more twists in this forever rolling saga just yet! Ecm also still building heights in next week to boot, so it's looking pleasently good... Perhaps early June now becoming a distant memory.

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h2005__uk__ Enthusiast

h2005__uk__

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

None of the models are going for 30+C at the weekend as far as I know but, interestingly, WeatherPro is showing 30C for Essex and 31C for London.

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted

Really liking the model output at the moment. Seems to be that once the Azores High ridges in, it doesn't want to go far.  A fine settled first two weeks of July more likely than not.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The GEFS 6z mean paints a summery picture through early July with either strong azores ridging or high pressure..or both!!!!

GFSAVGEU06_204_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_228_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_252_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_276_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_300_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_300_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_324_1.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

That's a positive mean Karl. The ensembles showing a major decrease in rainfall as well. This fits in well with high pressure building. 

graphe3_1000_247_96___.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
Just now, Mattwolves said:

That's a positive mean Karl. The ensembles showing a major decrease in rainfall has well. This fits in well with high pressure building. 

graphe3_1000_247_96___.png

It's the best mean I've seen for some time, longer term!

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

Yes daring to look further ahead, the ECM clusters suggest a fine start to July is the favoured outcome

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019062500_264.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019062500_360.

Clusters 1 and 3 keeping a ridge nearby, and these combined make nearly 70% of the ensembles. Just going to have to keep an eye on a Scandi trough, which may try to inject a northerly input, but this is the outsider option right now.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Looking very promising for sure. Dry GFS ensembles, and the mean hovering around 10c is always a good sign that decent weather should prevail.

Also note how tightly banded the ensembles are temperature wise - probably the most agreement we've had for a while.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Here's what the ICON 6z thinks, or rather doesn't think of the plume for Fri / Sat..is it even a plume?..looks pish poor to me in terms of 2m temps!

icon-9-81.png

icon-1-81.png

icon-1-105.png

icon-9-105.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Gfs 6z operational for friday, 850's and 2m temps..go figure!

06_81_ukthickness850.png

06_81_uk2mtmp.png

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matty007 Rising Star

matty007

Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
Posted
1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

The GEFS 6z mean paints a summery picture through early July with either strong azores ridging or high pressure..or both!!!!

GFSAVGEU06_204_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_228_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_252_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_276_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_300_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_300_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_324_1.png

Wow, now those are very lovely charts. Very 2018 esque.

We can only hope.

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matty007 Rising Star

matty007

Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
Posted
Just now, Jon Snow said:

Gfs 6z operational for friday, 850's and 2m temps..go figure!

06_81_ukthickness850.png

06_81_uk2mtmp.png

I smell something strong, and it isn't grass.....

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Northwest NI Seasoned

Northwest NI

Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
Posted
10 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Wow, now those are very lovely charts. Very 2018 esque.

We can only hope.

This projection is always better for my area than a plume. Rarely get that much out of a plume in NW but I understand why majority love it. 

Rather have nailed on high teens low twenties than really high temperatures followed by storms and a breakdown.

 

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matty007 Rising Star

matty007

Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
Posted
1 minute ago, Northwest NI said:

This projection is always better for my area than a plume. Rarely get that much out of a plume in NW but I understand why majority love it. 

Rather have nailed on high teens low twenties than really high temperatures followed by storms and a breakdown.

 

I'm with you (mostly). Even though I am a high heat lover, you cannon't beat consistent and settled summers. Personally high teens are a bit low for me. I would be quite happy with weeks and weeks of temps around 24-25c with sun and little wind. Preety much June 2018. Perfect summer month.

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted
16 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Gfs 6z operational for friday, 850's and 2m temps..go figure!

06_81_ukthickness850.png

06_81_uk2mtmp.png

Hmm surface 2m temps undercooking it even by my usual guess work lol

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
4 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Hmm surface 2m temps undercooking it even by my usual guess work lol

 

Looks warmer where the 850's are lower..lol..good luck scotland, you deserve it!

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Hmm surface 2m temps undercooking it even by my usual guess work lol

 

Well again its really a triple whammy.

1 - Extensive low cloud driving in from the east tomorrow giving almost total cloud across almost all of E+W

2 - The cold feed of the north sea for Eastern England suppressing temps there Wed-Fri

3-  Finally both ECM and GFS for Thursday & Friday produce a really tight squeeze on things in the lowest levels across the south and south west with gusts to 40-60mph howling in from the Channel suppressing temps in those regions.

I'm not sure its possible to get worse surface conditions under such an amazingly warm upper level flow. 

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted

Yes looks like the strong winds in the SW will keep it cool and the NE sea the other side the country does the same.

UK wasn't really designed for plumes or hot weather.

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well again its really a triple whammy.

1 - Extensive low cloud driving in from the east tomorrow giving almost total cloud across almost all of E+W

2 - The cold feed of the north sea for Eastern England suppressing temps there Wed-Fri

3-  Finally both ECM and GFS for Thursday & Friday produce a really tight squeeze on things in the lowest levels across the south and south west with gusts to 40-60mph howling in from the Channel suppressing temps in those regions.

I'm not sure its possible to get worse surface conditions under such an amazingly warm upper level flow. 

Maybe if we take a balloon ride to 1500m the weather will be excellent, really take advantage of those 850's?

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Maybe if we take a balloon ride to 1500m the weather will be excellent, really take advantage of those 850's?

Wouldn’t be able to take off - too windy

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