Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

You’ve clearly not looked at the temps Mon-weds high teens for most. ? 

You can always add on  three or four to that, especially if this weekend has been undercooked.  In any strong sunshine at least low 20s in the highest of summertime

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

You can always add on  three or four to that, especially if this weekend has been undercooked.  In any strong sunshine at least low 20s in the highest of summertime

Just like the rest of this week......

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye but seas much warmer in 0ct than June

How do you explain the late May-early June 1947 heatwave where maxima got into low 30Cs though?. Don't forget this came just weeks after the frigid February and early March when SSTs would be exceptionally low in the North Sea? 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Weather-history

[Guest]

The ECM chart at D10 is full of endless possibilities, will the trough disrupt to the west allowing HP to really build in leading to a hot spell or will it regress back westwards allowing the low to the north east to drive into the North Sea???

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

How do you explain the late May-early June 1947 heatwave where maxima got into low 30Cs though?. Don't forget this came just weeks after the frigid February and early March when SSTs would be exceptionally low in the North Sea? 

maybe air more southerly, tomorrow is E'ly, only going for 18 degrees here, 21 Thurs, 23 Fri, 19 Sat

[knocker]

And the North Sea is relatively warm at the moment generally being over 1C above average

[Azazel]

16 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The ECM chart at D10 is full of endless possibilities, will the trough disrupt to the west allowing HP to really build in leading to a hot spell or will it regress back westwards allowing the low to the north east to drive into the North Sea???

The second one. Always the second one.

[Mike Poole]

9 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Mike do you see any signs of this high pressure devoloping to the North and East of us, allowing for weather systems to start effecting the SW, while the drier conditions get shunted North.... I can't see any signs of this at present, but exeter seem to think it's a possibility. 

Not really in the current output, Matt. Maybe that is what the ECM 46 dayer shows, but models seem to be suggesting a high close to the UK at T240, here ECM, GEM and GFS:

[mb018538]

Good agreement on the ECM last night (100%) of a ridge close to the UK too:



Centred slightly to the west which could perhaps hold temperatures back a bit - unless it's a very strong upper level ridge like the 00z ECM chart shows at day 10 which tends to lend itself to warmer uppers, sun and good home grown heat. Looks a bit more like 2018.

[Man With Beard]

From reinterpreting ECM raw data, the maxes suggested from the 00Z might be :

Tuesday 28C (SE) 

Wednesday 25/26C (South Coast) 

Thursday 28C (South West) 

Friday 30C (Bristol) 

Saturday 34C (N of London) 

Normally these values would be pretty close to the actual, considering we are now within 4 days, though even the ECM sometimes missing microclimate variations. Will the Met Office persist with higher forecast temps than this today? 

Longer term, heights generally favored to our west, I'd say, but now settled here than unsettled

[Guest]

Just an indication of the pattern for the next three days, surface winds really picking up down the east coast, even here low cloud and mist streaming in from the north east. While the rain / mid level cloud still moving NNE with the steering flow at 700-850mb. Took a few days to get there but generally modelled quite well in the unfortunately.  

[danm]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

You’ve clearly not looked at the temps Mon-weds high teens for most. ? 

Looks like low 20’s to me, at least in the usual favourable spots.

[knocker]

Some suggestion of murmurings from the Atlantic subtropical high in the EPS ext period this morning but generally a relatively benign westerly upper flow to the trough over NW Europe, with some divergence to the trough to the south which is in conjunction with the European ridge, which itself is further south. Nothing particularly nasty in the woodshed with temps around average.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Some suggestion of murmurings from the Atlantic subtropical high in the EPS ext period this morning but generally a relatively benign westerly upper flow to the trough over NW Europe, with some divergence to the trough to the south which is in conjunction with the European ridge, which itself is further south. Nothing particularly nasty in the woodshed with temps around average.

Yes , a huge improvement from the first 2/3 of June.

Edited June 25, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Alexis]

59 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Just an indication of the pattern for the next three days, surface winds really picking up down the east coast, even here low cloud and mist streaming in from the north east. While the rain / mid level cloud still moving NNE with the steering flow at 700-850mb. Took a few days to get there but generally modelled quite well in the unfortunately.  

Yes, Holland and Belgium are seeing thick cloud moving over them today.

[StormChaseUK]

So the GFS temps were close to the mark after all. Here in the west it's been a cloudy wet week so far but warm. I think the "plume" that was hyped to death wasnt actually a plume it was just a high pressure building from NE meeting an Atlantic based Low. Rather than low over biscay , high over france, Germany.

Not really a plume in the traditional sense

[Scorcher]

4 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

So the GFS temps were close to the mark after all. Here in the west it's been a cloudy wet week so far but warm. I think the "plume" that was hyped to death wasnt actually a plume it was just a high pressure building from NE meeting an Atlantic based Low. Rather than low over biscay , high over france, Germany.

Not really a plume in the traditional sense

How do you know? It's only Tuesday! They may be right for today (no surprise with all the cloud cover) but the big question is, will they be right when we get more sunshine from Thursday to Saturday?

And the 'plume' isn't here yet...

[Derecho]

7 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

So the GFS temps were close to the mark after all. Here in the west it's been a cloudy wet week so far but warm. I think the "plume" that was hyped to death wasnt actually a plume it was just a high pressure building from NE meeting an Atlantic based Low. Rather than low over biscay , high over france, Germany.

Not really a plume in the traditional sense

Given today is cloudy over many areas at the moment is that really a surprise? Not exactly hard to predict temperatures when cloud cover is involved. Met Office video forecasts still have temperatures potentially reaching 30C today and tomorrow over southern areas and the really warm uppers still haven't arrived yet.

Edited June 25, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

So the GFS temps were close to the mark after all. Here in the west it's been a cloudy wet week so far but warm. I think the "plume" that was hyped to death wasnt actually a plume it was just a high pressure building from NE meeting an Atlantic based Low. Rather than low over biscay , high over france, Germany.

Not really a plume in the traditional sense

Forgetting the past tense - Really?

 

 

[StormChaseUK]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Forgetting the past tense - Really?

 

 

France plume looking at that, North sea cuts off the plume compared to more traditional Spanish plumes

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean gets better and better as time goes on with the azores high building in strongly!

[knocker]

14 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

France plume looking at that, North sea cuts off the plume compared to more traditional Spanish plumes

 

Actually you said it wasn't a plume at all whether it be Spanish or Cornish

"I think the "plume" that was hyped to death wasnt actually a plume"

[danm]

13 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

France plume looking at that, North sea cuts off the plume compared to more traditional Spanish plumes

The North Sea has not or will not “cutt off” the plume. Temperatures at 850mb are still projected to be 20c+ over the south of the UK. 

The influence the North Sea has is on suppressing temperatures at the surface due to onshore winds from a cool body of water with a long sea track.

[Frosty.]

25 minutes ago, danm said:

The influence the North Sea has is on suppressing temperatures at the surface due to onshore winds from a cool body of water with a long sea track.

Something that France doesn't have to worry about, being part of a huge landmass, ergo record heat into the mid 40's celsius..still, this spanish plume hasn't even arrived yet and the Ecm 0z still shows +22-23 uppers on Fri / Sat for some..even Sunday still looks very warm or hot further SE.

Edited June 25, 2019 by Jon Snow

[matty007]

The plume hasn't even arrived yet and people are already completely writing it off because of the predictied temps by the models. They are exactly that - predicted, and have many times been woefly wrong. Truth be told, nobody knows how hot this spell will get, but with 20-25c uppers and a southerly flow on Fri/Sat, the only real answer is high.

The plumes that occured in 2003 and 2015 were disregarded by many as not appearing record breaking or extreme, and indeed they turned out to be.

Wait and see what happens before writing it off. Weather stations are the only things that can accurately gauge temps, on the day. Temps have already been quite a lot higher than forecast and the plume isn't even here yet.