Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

With those uppers, light southerly winds and the sun at its strongest, surface temperatures are still only expected to be in the mid to high twenties for most. Extremely low and underwhelming for such a setup and I really am puzzled by it.

Its puzzling for sure matt, somethings got to give here... Maybe another day or 2 before we know for sure. We could most definitely have some areas towards the East Coast struggling in the mid teens, where to shelter of high ground further West perhaps some really high maximums... More twists and turns I feel though yet. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

GFS and FV3 at 96hrs....gerrin sick of saying this now... Plume is on... Temperatures to be decided closer to the time...

[Mike Poole]

And the pub run joining the consensus that post plume, the Azores will ridge in for a big shift to summer weather when compared to the first half of June, that's for sure:

Likewise legacy pub run, also T192.

Edited June 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

GFS FV3 follows the ecm with azores ridging at 180hrs.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

And the pub run joining the consensus that post plume, the Azores will ridge in for a big shift to summer weather when compared to the first half of June, that's for sure:

Likewise legacy pub run, also T192.

Mike do you see any signs of this high pressure devoloping to the North and East of us, allowing for weather systems to start effecting the SW, while the drier conditions get shunted North.... I can't see any signs of this at present, but exeter seem to think it's a possibility. 

[ChezWeather]

24 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Mike do you see any signs of this high pressure devoloping to the North and East of us, allowing for weather systems to start effecting the SW, while the drier conditions get shunted North.... I can't see any signs of this at present, but exeter seem to think it's a possibility. 

I sincerely hope UKMO are incorrect with that call.. im down in the SW on hols for 2nd/3rd weeks of July 

GFS looking swell out to 240 

Edit* Also develops a UK high further out 

Positive signs ahead? 

Edited June 24, 2019 by ChezWeather

[matty007]

No precipitation and virtually no cloud cover either. Watch those temps RISE

[matty007]

Nothing wrong with the pub run at all. And perhaps the most important factor - high pressure directly over us and a southerly flow. This will massively aid temps

[knocker]

Outlook - It's likely to get very warm, and even hot, in some areas over the next few days but there will be some quite marked regional variations. The usual caveats vis gfs temps apply but as this was discussed at length yesterday I See no need to refer to it again this morning

Meanwhile...the North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK chart

The area of heavy rain, intermingled with some severe storms and intense downpours, associated with the fronts and shallow wave, will continue to track north east, clearing into the North Sea by midday. It will remain overcast and humid but brightening in the W/SW which may well generate some showers, Further north a generally dry day

Remaining overcast and muggy overnight in England and Wales with some mist patches in eastern regions, and perhaps the odd shower in the south

By Wednesday the pattern is developing nicely with the subtropical high ridging across the UK with the very warm low south of the front running along the Channel. A generally cloudy day but where the sun makes an appearance, quite warm/ Tending to become breezy in the south west.

Over Wednesday night through Thursday the pattern continues to evolve and the aforementioned front moves north allowing ingress of the very hot air to the south So a dry and very warm day, perhaps hot, in the south]

By Friday as the pattern continues  to evolve the Atlantic is taking closer order with the subtropical ridge eradicated as the trough to the south west moves north which realigns the surface analysis. So potentially another warm/hot day in many areas excluding eastern coastal regions

By Saturday a front associated with the trough to the west is pushing east across the country and the precise movement of this is critical with the potential for storms. Another war/hot day east of the front

Edited June 25, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

You will notice I didn't post the max temp for Thursday as nothing has changed since the discussion yesterday

I await the midday sounding at Camborne on Thursday with some interest

Edited June 25, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Today's GEFS 00Z ensembles:

   

So, no records going here, I'm afraid...Maybe next time?

A quick peek at the GFS and ECM harts for T+240 both suggest a relatively swift return to summer-like conditions: 

GFS: 

ECMWF:     

Edited June 25, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Scorcher]

This could be one to tell the Grandkids about- this spectacular looking chart only delivered the mid 20s! I really have never seen anything like it. A far less spectacular chart in October last year delivered 22-24C widely

Shows how much I know about reading the charts- to me at first glance that's one of the best summer charts I've ever seen. 

[knocker]

According to the ecm the surface analysis over Thurs/Frid restricts any general build up of heat and emphasizes the regional distribution of temperature leaving Saturday the main hot day

[Guest]

Well beyond the weekend a cool (high teens) and dry spell looks likely as we transition airmass before high pressure from the Azores looks like ridging in. Little rain beyond today in the south so hopefully a reasonable spell of summer weather. 

Remainder of this week looks cool down the eastern flank of the country, tomorrow sees huge amount of cloud spilling in from the east, hard to imagine less than 4days ago the Meto forecast 34c for tomorrow, a pretty epic fail by all accounts. London will be lucky to get to 20-22c, almost all the models now predict total cloud for all of E+W all day and temps uniformly around 18-22c, 14-16c right on the east coast. Less cloud Thursday and Friday but the east still suffering from the flow of the North Sea. Huge question marks about how temps will respond further west but 26-28c seems a good bet, maybe a 30c in wales or on the northern coasts of Devon and Cornwall. 

In summary a complete waste of a once in a lifetime airmass because a breeze from the North Sea....

Edited June 25, 2019 by Alderc

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

This could be one to tell the Grandkids about- this spectacular looking chart only delivered the mid 20s! I really have never seen anything like it. A far less spectacular chart in October last year delivered 22-24C widely

Shows how much I know about reading the charts- to me at first glance that's one of the best summer charts I've ever seen. 

Blame the chilly north sea / surface wind flow, if that was more southerly..anyway, records for france with 44c likely...saturday looks the warmest day, 30c for the SE but a band of showery rain edging slowly eastwards introducing cooler / fresher atlantic air in its wake, reaching all areas by sunday.

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

This could be one to tell the Grandkids about- this spectacular looking chart only delivered the mid 20s! I really have never seen anything like it. A far less spectacular chart in October last year delivered 22-24C widely

Shows how much I know about reading the charts- to me at first glance that's one of the best summer charts I've ever seen. 

Look at this chart, got to 29.9C on the 1st October 2011. 

 

Meanwhile there is an ensemble that gets to -5.8C for the 850hpa level over Lerwick. Is that cool 850hpa airmass over the Norwegian Sea area going to be dragged down over the UK early next week?

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Look at this chart, got to 29.9C on the 1st October 2011. 

 

Meanwhile there is an ensemble that gets to -5.8C for the 850hpa level over Lerwick. Is that cool 850hpa airmass over the Norwegian Sea area going to be dragged down over the UK early next week?

It’s quite possible GFS is over egging the high pressure ridging in from the south west (wouldn’t be the first time), I can easily see the low to north next week sliding down the east coast and pushing high pressure to the west... 

[mb018538]

ECM is a lovely sight this morning at day 8:



High pressure quick to make a return 

[Scorcher]

7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Blame the chilly north sea / surface wind flow, if that was more southerly..anyway, records for france with 44c likely...saturday looks the warmest day, 30c for the SE but a band of showery rain edging slowly eastwards introducing cooler / fresher atlantic air in its wake, reaching all areas by sunday.

The thing is, we've had worse charts than that in many Mays here that have produced the temps being shown by the GFS for Friday- and that includes easterlies in early May that have come directly over the North Sea. On the west side of the Pennines we've seen some direct easterlies in early May produce 24/25C in the past.

The flow looks more SE to me than E on Friday- surely for the west side of the country you'd expect better than what is being shown.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is a lovely sight this morning at day 8:



High pressure quick to make a return 

Hopefully it builds in better than this weeks high...

[Sweatyman]

15 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Look at this chart, got to 29.9C on the 1st October 2011. 

 

Meanwhile there is an ensemble that gets to -5.8C for the 850hpa level over Lerwick. Is that cool 850hpa airmass over the Norwegian Sea area going to be dragged down over the UK early next week?

Absolutely guaranteed. Nailed on to be bang on top of us! Just our luck

[Gordon Webb]

7 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Absolutely guaranteed. Nailed on to be bang on top of us! Just our luck

Remember Many a true word is spoken in jest

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Im happy with current output of a ridge building in next week following this weeks great betrayal. I suppose uppers of 20C so early in the summer should always come with the risk of the cooler N Sea winds.  At least next week temperatures will be a lot warmer and less humid.  Still looks like  it could remain hot over Europe so still time for another shot

Edited June 25, 2019 by 38.5*C

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Im happy with current output of a ridge building in next week following this weeks great betrayal. I suppose uppers of 20C so early in the summer should always come with the risk of the cooler N Sea winds.  At least next week temperatures will be a lot warmer and less humid.  

You’ve clearly not looked at the temps Mon-weds high teens for most. ? 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Alderc

[I remember Atlantic 252]

45 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

This could be one to tell the Grandkids about- this spectacular looking chart only delivered the mid 20s! I really have never seen anything like it. A far less spectacular chart in October last year delivered 22-24C widely

Shows how much I know about reading the charts- to me at first glance that's one of the best summer charts I've ever seen. 

Aye but seas much warmer in 0ct than June