Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening Everyone!   As little as T+96  the models diverge  that really says something 

[MR EXTREMES]

8 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

But you don't know that, do you? I'm thinking that the difficulties we are having with interpreting the forecast temperature profiles apply equally, irrespective of whether one works up or works down...?

I think modelling in sea breezes cloud cover there's many times the temps and length of heatwaves is always been messy. 

My punt is hot weeks end and some spectacular storms hopefully. 

Edited June 24, 2019 by MR EXTREMES

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

I think modelling in sea breezes cloud cover there's many times the temps and length of heatwaves is always been messy. 

My punt is hot weeks end and some spectacular storms hopefully. 

I'm sure previous plumes were more straightforward with less issues regarding surface wind flow, cloud cover, rain, etc..that's my perception although frankly we don't get many spanish plumes do we!!

Anyway, I continue to believe the 2m max temps are going to be much higher than currently shown by the models for fri / sat!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Northerly on the latest GFS bringing the -2c isotherm into Northern Scotland, would be a big culture shock after the severe heat of this week.

Edited June 24, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[MR EXTREMES]

40 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC very nice by day 9 /10 tonight with the Azores high ridging in.

The signs are there for return to heat 3ecm runs and the Ecm runs haven't been as volitle either. 

But the Gfs was first to deal the Spanish plume. 

But the Ecm runs look good for a classic first week's or two of July. 

Loads of blocking flapping all over the place. 

And the azores heights stronger now as we enter summer proper. 

Beautiful Ecm 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Northerly on the latest GFS bringing the -2c isotherm into Northern Scotland, would be a big culture shock after the severe heat of this week.

It wouldn't be a shock for the north of Scotland / Northern isles, most of this week they will be basking in 11c and lots of haar!!

[Derecho]

23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm beginning to think that it's us who're going to be wrong...When heat (or snow, in the case of winter) is in doubt, give the NAVGEM a shout?

Ah good old NAVGEM 

I remember for the July 2015 warm spell at the start of the month it was predicting temperatures of 43C over Peterborough .

I don't think it would be long before our next spell of warmth if the ECM is anything to go by... can see this moving over the UK and then potentially to our east. A lot to pass under the bridge till then though, may be quite cool for a few days from Sunday onwards.

Edited June 24, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I can safely say the plume has been talked to death by now folks... So i will instead concentrate on tonight's ECM mean.... And you know what it's not plumetastic..... Its highpressurelicious....

[matty007]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Ah good old NAVGEM 

I remember for the July 2015 warm spell at the start of the month it was predicting temperatures of 43C over Peterborough .

I don't think it would be long before our next spell of warmth if the ECM is anything to go by... can see this moving over the UK and then potentially to our east.

That is a very preety chart. I did think even a few days ago that the potential was rising for a decent July. Lots of HP about and heat on the continent.

Think this might be a very decent July.

[ANYWEATHER]

Hello Folks ! Gfs makes no interest in this so called Plume ...

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean T240, also showing support for the Azores ridge...

Edited June 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

It wouldn't be a shock for the north of Scotland / Northern isles, most of this week they will be basking in 11c and lots of haar!!

After tomorrow Inverness has max temps into the 20's

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

After tomorrow Inverness has max temps into the 20's

We are highly honoured... We have had Steve M, catacol, tight isobar, nick Sussex..... And now the Feb posting in the summer thread... Welcome back sir....

Edited June 24, 2019 by Mattwolves

[mb018538]

43 minutes ago, knocker said:

Funny enough after I had posted my quick answer to that question I was reminded of quite a few occasions in the past when I have defended the METO take on forecast temps against people who were saying I expect they will change their minds once they have seen the latest runs. As if. But of course on those occasions the models strongly favored what people wanted. I mean,,,,,,can you actually believe that

Always good to have some old fashioned human input. As posted earlier the 12z gfs today had maxima today in this region of 21-23c for a few hours after the model ran....reality was 26c. Combination of man and machine is best I reckon.

[Frosty.]

Following a quieter slightly cooler / fresher interlude it really hots up and becomes very humid again with an increasing chance of thunderstorms from late friday and more especially through saturday..I really hope there is a big bang before the atlantic air moves in on sunday!!!

Edited June 24, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Tonight's mean shows the op was on the warmer side of preceedings, the pressure charts shows the rise quite well... Like last night really... Here are the comparisons... 

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

After tomorrow Inverness has max temps into the 20's

I meant further north, thurso..north coast!

[Blessed Weather]

55 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Or if you're really desperate..the JMA..on second thoughts!

Steady on.
It appears there's nothing between the old GFS and JMA in the verification stats. As expected, ECM well ahead, but you couldn't get a fag paper between the following pack of models. Not like for like graphs, but hopefully the following illustrate the point in their own way:

ECM's own stats NH 500 hPa May 2019 (n.b. these stat outputs still in test):

Met Office Canada stats for America 500hPa 2016 to April 2019:

Sources:
https://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z
https://weather.gc.ca/verification/monthly_ts_e.html

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe  - not quite classic heatwave conditions, indeed for many temperatures over the coming days will unlikely hit the 30 degree mark, only a few favoured spots - western sheltered parts on Friday, usual places on Saturday such as Heathrow. Indeed a northerly flow from the N Sea will invade eastern and se parts shortly.

A short sharp burst of heat then, before the atlantic steamrolls in on Sunday - though it may be a slower affair keeping the SE locked in the warm uppers on Sunday.

As we enter July which really is the king month for heat and summer splendour - a cooler blast from the NW most likely before the azores high ridges in again, and unlike this week, it looks more robust, so we could see a very decent start to July with high pressure overhead, most probably moving to the east again, before trough activity to the west inches its way in - could this be the pattern for the core of the summer, temporary bursts of heat from the south, then atlantic back in on with cooler NW air, the azores high then ridges in and through the UK and then to our east.. not a robust pattern for sustained heat, but would suit those who like three fine days and then a thunderstorm brigade, with a bit of everything, thunder/rain, cooler showery conditions then heat and humidity again.. 

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z looks an insane run at T75:

Bonkers!  Looks to pull in the heat at pretty much the perfect angle....look forward to the later frames....

Edit: Peaks T105:

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

It wouldn't be a shock for the north of Scotland / Northern isles, most of this week they will be basking in 11c and lots of haar!!

I've got it Wednesday, looks a cool day in the east, may not get above 15 degrees

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Serious heat from the Icon, it maybe only brief but my god it packs a punch. June record at risk if this falls favourably... 

[damianslaw]

10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Serious heat from the Icon, it maybe only brief but my god it packs a punch. June record at risk if this falls favourably... 

Reminiscent of what happened I think on 1 July 2015, can't remember exact day.. there was also a one day wonder on 19 July 2016.. again not sure exact date.

[MattStoke]

21 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Serious heat from the Icon, it maybe only brief but my god it packs a punch. June record at risk if this falls favourably... 

With those uppers, light southerly winds and the sun at its strongest, surface temperatures are still only expected to be in the mid to high twenties for most. Extremely low and underwhelming for such a setup and I really am puzzled by it.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Reminiscent of what happened I think on 1 July 2015, can't remember exact day.. there was also a one day wonder on 19 July 2016.. again not sure exact date.

Your literally bang on there damian... July 18-20th..2016....33.5c was recorded in Oxfordshire, and 33.9c at Jersey Airport. If we can get a favourable build of pressure like the ECM is showing I will be happy, if we could get an extensive build of it we could gradually build our own heat... A set up like this will always outlast these plumes... Even though I feel they are more likely to become more frequent in time.