Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

it is clearly going to pretty during the morning 

 

I do wish some of you would check what you write before you post

What does this part of your post mean please?

Apologies, always in a rush.....meant to say I thought the rain was more expansive than forecast/modelled.

[Methuselah]

Next Saturday surely does look like being hot, after a very warm night, too!

  

But, the 00Z seems to iron-out extremes, at the surface?

  

  

So, still no sign of any return to a Greenland-high scenario; but @Catacol's musings should not be ignored...

Edited June 24, 2019 by Ed Stone

[knocker]

The EPS medium term mean anomaly gas the initial westerly upper flow veering a rad as the subtropical high pushes north. Temp around normal

Edited June 24, 2019 by knocker

[danm]

ECM this morning continues the trend to build in the Azores high over the UK next week. Warm/hot and humid until Saturday, cooler and fresher on Sunday and then some warm and settled weather building back in next week. All subject to change ofcourse as next week is far into FI, however it’s a trend that’s been showing for several days now. No return to unsettled weather in the short to medium term according to the ECM. 

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, danm said:

ECM this morning continues the trend to build in the Azores high over the UK next week. Warm/hot and humid until Saturday, cooler and fresher on Sunday and then some warm and settled weather building back in next week. All subject to change ofcourse as next week is far into FI, however it’s a trend that’s been showing for several days now. No return to unsettled weather in the short to medium term according to the ECM. 

 

Yes although i can see a traditional NW/SE split on the menu , or at least warmer and more settled the further SE one heads as we move through early July.

 

[danm]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes although i can see a traditional NW/SE split on the menu , or at least warmer and more settled the further SE one heads as we move through early July.

 

Yep agree, which would be the climatological norm, especially as we head through July and into August. ECM does show the Azores high building in nationwide later next week so may not just be the S/SE.  

[Mr Frost]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes although i can see a traditional NW/SE split on the menu , or at least warmer and more settled the further SE one heads as we move through early July.

 

Yes looks like a return to my dreaded and bog standard Summer pattern - decent in the South/Southeast with average temps but pretty rubbish in the Northwest of the UK. Hopefully that outlook will change.

However - plenty of hot and sunny weather before that for most of us.

Edited June 24, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 0z ensemble mean..

High Pressure..check

Lovely Spanish Plume coming..check

Azores high building in later..check

Edited June 24, 2019 by Jon Snow

[StormChaseUK]

Looks like the low prediction from last weeks GFS is further east.  It's a warm spell but only a fraction of what was on the cards last week.

 

[mb018538]

There’s also a chance now that the 20c isotherm could ebb away through Saturday morning and prevent a shot at a really high maximum.....

[Methuselah]

Definite signs of an elongated AZ, come Day 10, on ECM:

Which ties in well with a very positive-looking NH profile:

Let's just hope things don't all go pear-shaped?

[Man With Beard]

19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

There’s also a chance now that the 20c isotherm could ebb away through Saturday morning and prevent a shot at a really high maximum.....

Looking through the ECM ensembles and adding 3C to raw output, there would be fairly strong support for a maximum between 32C and 34C on Saturday. Perhaps 10% of members could support 35C or more.

Interestingly many ensembles now pick Glasgow as the hot spot for Friday, with temperatures up to 30C there.

But I remain entirely unconvinced and expect it to go higher (maybe much higher) than this in places!!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

gfs is trending away from a really hot saturday with the biggest of the uppers easing off earlier than predicted, plus no real eye opening thundery breakdown either.

[knocker]

Whilst whiling away a couple of hours this morning musing over the affairs of state I noticed that yesterday' Nimes midday sounding is almost the perfect example of when applying the ball park figure to the 850mb temp actually works.

As can be seen it is pretty dry air and the lapse rate is more or less along the dry adiabat, allowing for some surface heating, which cools/warms at 9.8C/Km. The 850mb height is 1530m and temp 15C with the surface at 30.5C so a warming of 15C  Voila,,, ading 15C,which is  often used as the ball park figure would have been spot on. Alas it is rarely ever that straightforward as we are well aware as a glance at the Ajaccio sounding illustrates

[Leo97t]

Even with the North Sea breeze, with 23C uppers and clear skies, I find it impossible to believe the temperatures that the gfs is predicting, it surely should be showing at least 32c. I have no idea why this hasn't happened on any model

[Northwest NI]

That Azores push is a little stronger than I expected. We might do ok out of that in NW.

 

[Mr Frost]

12 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

That Azores push is a little stronger than I expected. We might do ok out of that in NW.

 

Sorry mate - when I said pretty rubbish above I meant temperature/heat wise for the Northwest. (NI included)

In NI you would probably be looking at sunny spells and 17 degrees on that chart.

However South/Southeast England average July temp is roughly 23c for most of that area. (I think!) 

Obviously they would do well! (They always do in Summer!) 

Anyways - it will all look different again in a few hours. 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Man With Beard]

No posts on the heat from GFS 06Z ... I guess the extreme weather junkies among us are in a state of depression that the nirvana 850s charts we've been waiting for our weather watching lives are producing nowhere near record breaking actual charts.

But for what it is

GFS 06Z Friday - the outrageous upper air warmth, possibly not to be seen again for decades (?), continues to sedately count down on the charts

The GFS is gracious enough to give a couple of degrees surface warming on this

Saturday is hotter still though no records under threat

Quite a drop from the GFS 72 hours ago, which had temperatures in the 30s every day this week.

[Methuselah]

Good God! Friday night really does look steamy!

  

What's more, with 20C uppers in place throughout maximum insolation, somewhere just might see a very high max?

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

No posts on the heat from GFS 06Z ... I guess the extreme weather junkies among us are in a state of depression that the nirvana 850s charts we've been waiting for our weather watching lives are producing nowhere near record breaking actual charts.

Quite a drop from the GFS 72 hours ago, which had temperatures in the 30s every day this week.

Lack of posts probably due to the fact its nailed on now.

I think all the temperature charts are junk TBH, there is absolutely no way temperatures will be that low on Friday given such slack winds. Simply no way possible. FWIW I've done a thesis in UK synoptic climatology and all these forecast temperatures are just way off. North Sea coasts will see depressed maximums in any easterlies but the rest, especially in sheltered areas will be far warmer.

I'd go for Wednesday a favoured spot near the South coast getting over 30C, a bit higher on Thursday and then mid 30s on Friday. Something higher on Saturday is possible depending on how long the heat holds out for.

I've got the temperature predictions from last night for each day this week and will compare each one, so they can be used for future reference.

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Good God! Friday night really does look steamy!

  

though, again, upper air temperatures are not being modelled to correspond with surface temperatures at night. The only such disparity I can recall between upper air and night-time minima is December 2010 when there was 6 inches of snow on the ground and no wind!!

  

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Quite a drop from the GFS 72 hours ago, which had temperatures in the 30s every day this week.

Indeed - that is the disappointing part of it all.

The GFS from Fridays 00 run for example...(Wednesday and Thursday below)

Its now looking like mid/high 20’s c max on those two days. (South mainly although Metoffice is showing temps of 23c in London for both these days?)

Two day wonder (Friday and Saturday) for a chance at breaking temperature records is certainly not to be sniffed at though - plus a couple of warm/hot sunny days for quite a few before then.  

Fantastic Summer week ahead! 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Paul_1978]

If there’s one thing everyone should learn from this is that you shouldn’t get hooked in by anything over 6 days away (T+144). 

We know this from snow hunting in the winter and it’s happened now with this plume.  

[StormChaseUK]

18 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Indeed - the bit in bold is the disappointing part of it all.

The GFS from Fridays 00 run for example...(Wednesday and Thursday below)

Its now looking like mid/high 20’s c max on those two days. (South mainly although Metoffice is showing temps of 23c in London for both these days?)

Two day wonder (Friday and Saturday) for a chance at breaking temperature records is certainly not to be sniffed at though - plus a couple of warm/hot sunny days for quite a few before then.  

Fantastic Summer week ahead! 

Yes I'm still suprised people are getting excited about the uppers.  It is the uppers that are over cooking it and the surface temps that are correct.

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by StormChaseUK

[Methuselah]

19 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Yes I'm still suprised people are getting excited about the uppers.  It is the uppers that are over cooking it and the surface temps that are correct.

 

But you don't know that, do you? I'm thinking that the difficulties we are having with interpreting the forecast temperature profiles apply equally, irrespective of whether one works up or works down...?