Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[matty007]

2 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

We've had the 20C isotherm in a few times, I believe in 2003 and possibly more recently than that.

You're right. It was just in the southeastern corner.

However, it was only with us for 1-2 days and backed out. A similar prospect as we have now, but it may stay 3 days in this upcoming spell. Obviosuly there was ground warming beforehand and it was August so the atmosphere was at it's peak. But still, you should still be approaching or surpassing 35c with 20c uppers in late June.

The plume of July 1st 2015 had the 20c isothern in a similar position and achieved 36.7c. Again, this was only a one day event though.




There are still quite a few models showing the 25c isothern just breaching the UK, and even if it does not, the 20c will be much higher than in the previous two examples, and you will still get convection from the 25c that would be very nearby.

I just don't see how we won't be pushing mid thirties with what's on the cards.

[GeordieX9v]

Awaiting the GFS to spew out it's pub run.

Let's see something similar to the ICON/ECM 

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Rascals Revenge said:

Approximately im not allowed to mention the MODELED downgraded temps mon to weds as its classified as non factual.  So enjoy your 34c in London on weds.

I'm not seeing a downgrade whatsoever, all I can see is some of the models struggling with wind flow direction and cloud cover amounts. Like I've stated many times today, if we get some good sunny breaks temps will sky rocket.. Tomorrow being an example, any decent sunny spells, and we could be looking at 25-28c.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm not seeing a downgrade whatsoever, all I can see is some of the models struggling with wind flow direction and cloud cover amounts. Like I've stated many times today, if we get some good sunny breaks temps will sky rocket.. Tomorrow being an example, any decent sunny spells, and we could be looking at 25-28c.

Very humid too so whatever the max temp is it will feel much warmer anyway, that goes for the week ahead. 

Edited June 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Very humid too so whatever the max temp is it will feel much warmer anyway

The thundery rain moving up from the continent is importing some very warm and humid air tomorrow Karl.. That's why I say if the sun gets out for any length of time tomorrow, just watch those temps shoot up...

[Derecho]

The 20C isotherm now hitting the south UK at T84, good stuff! seems the incremental delays have stopped for now.

The odds of this becoming a memorable spell I think are starting to creep up above 50%

Edited June 23, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[Mike Poole]

Pub run rolling, only to T90 but it's a cracker!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Day 5 on the legacy, and I've just created a new word.... Plumealicious... 

[matty007]

Peachy from the 18Z

[GeordieX9v]

Looks like the GFS switches the flow more SE by Thursday.

Just noticed plenty cells popping around the Hull area right now.

[StormChaseUK]

I must be looking at the wrong charts as I dont see anything to get overexcited about at all on 18z

[BlueHedgehog074]

3 hours ago, Dale Hay said:

It seems Wetterzentrale's [website] certificate is invalid - all websites should be accessible through HTTPS (secure) only, not HTTP (not secure), as their website doesn't seem to have this correctly set up, it seems they'll be unavailable until they've sorted that issue.

Have noticed Wetterzentrale now has the magic padlock sign on its site!  

Great that they’ve got it sorted, including having HTTPS now, as that model viewing website never used to be secure. (I don’t think).

Edited June 23, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The 20C isotherm now hitting the south UK at T84, good stuff! seems the incremental delays have stopped for now.

The odds of this becoming a memorable spell I think are starting to creep up above 50%

Not a long spell of hot weather though? Seems like it’s going to be all over by Sunday (until next time).

[Met.]

I know I could easily be wrong, but I just don't see those low highs being realistic for later this week at all. I think it's just a very unusual synoptic scenario, and the models aren't handling it well given our maritime climate, and so I am going to call much higher temps than what they are showing. I honestly believe we'll be seeing a good 10°C higher than those ridiculous GFS highs on thursday in particular. Willing to call it now and if I'm wrong I'll accept it.

[matty007]

39 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

I know I could easily be wrong, but I just don't see those low highs being realistic for later this week at all. I think it's just a very unusual synoptic scenario, and the models aren't handling it well given our maritime climate, and so I am going to call much higher temps than what they are showing. I honestly believe we'll be seeing a good 10°C higher than those ridiculous GFS highs on thursday in particular. Willing to call it now and if I'm wrong I'll accept it.

A sensible, and in all likleyhood, correct stance.

Edited June 24, 2019 by matty007

[knocker]

Outlook – The regional detail over the next few days remains tricky as the pattern slowly evolves. In a nutshell there is a lot of hot air over France and how far north this gets, and where, is very dependent, on the surface analysis with particular emphasis on low level winds and the position of the fronts.

In more detail Starting with the North Atlantic 500mb profile and surface analysis and the0300 UK chart

A glance at the latter shows a lot of moderate rain over NE England and SE Scotland associated with the warm front whilst further south some very warm and moist air as indicated by the high dew points. The rain will continue to track north east but further pulses along the front will follow through the day and this could well include storms and localized intense precipitation. Given the ideal environment the odd storm could pop up virtually anywhere with it becoming quite warm over much of England and east wales but very cool in northern Scotland

This evening the moderate rain will clear northern Scotland but a warm front  trails across central England all the way down to Iberia. And through the night storms will track north east along this corridor which covers southern, central and eastern England, Some of these could be quite intense.

With the waving front still running down the spine of England on Tuesday storms will continue through the morning and early afternoon on what will be a sultry day over England and Wales where the odd rogue storm could pop up whilst Scotland will be overcast with once again quite a big temp differential with the south.

Over Tuesday night and through Weds the subtropical high in the Atlantic Amplifies north east and a ridge settles over the UK with a front lying along the Channel, Thus a dry day and quite warm in most areas with the exception of eastern coastal regions courtesy of the onshore wind.

Essentially a similar story on Thursday but now the warm front is aligned south west Wales > London. I have included the gfs temps which I think are incorrect in the south which I feel will be much warmer this side of the front

As the pattern continues to evolve the European subtropical high has become one of the leading players whilst the trough to the west becomes elongated. Thus the surface low to the south west tracks north re-orientating the front lying across the south of the country on Friday This should create a marked temp boundary NE/SW but don't take the gfs values as gospel

Edited June 24, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

I'm not enthused with confidence vis the weekend but the gfs does take the fronts through on saturday

[Mr Frost]

So the latest GFS from Wednesday to Sunday...same as previous runs with regards to temperatures.

After this...let’s pretend the rest of the run never happened! Couple of warm days in the South, chilly up North and big Greenland height rises...much like @Catacol post last night.

Latest ECM run - make the most of the hot weather this week as July might herald a return to unsettled? (Apart from Southern England maybe?)

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Guest]

I’m not sure the models have modelled the overnight rain moving out of France. There is very little RF by 9am in the south yet it is clearly going to pretty during the morning across the south east.

[knocker]

As mentioned earlier the weekend is still a bit tricky vis any breakdown from the west and the ecm has frontal raun confined to the NW and a very warm day on Saturday

[Summer Sun]

Looking at UKMO the main period for the highest 850s will be Thursday to Saturday

Thursday sees a very distinct split with those closer to the east coast struggling in the mid teens but further west into the mid 20s

A similar picture on Friday with central & westerns areas in the mid maybe upper 20s but closer to the east coast temps stay lower but up a tad on Thursday

By Saturday, it's all change as the western side sees a dip in temps whilst the east sees an increase with highs in the London area approaching 30c

[knocker]

The 0600 Sat image does illustrate the front trailing south over Biscay which is the source of storm activity this evening

[Captain Shortwave]

In terms of heat, probably a one day wonder (two in the south as Friday will possibly see 30c hit across southern England).  Mid-thirties possible and of course the June record would still be possible.

Before then, well behind last nights front there will be some sunshine and a warm and humid flow from the continent. So mid to high twenties if the sun stays out. Tuesday looks cool for most with the exception of the far south east which could become very warm and humid with light winds and being east of the front. 

[johnholmes]

59 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I’m not sure the models have modelled the overnight rain moving out of France. There is very little RF by 9am in the south yet it is clearly going to pretty during the morning across the south east.

it is clearly going to pretty during the morning 

 

I do wish some of you would check what you write before you post

What does this part of your post mean please?

[Gordon Webb]

21 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

it is clearly going to pretty during the morning 

 

I do wish some of you would check what you write before you post

What does this part of your post mean please?

i thought he meant it was going to rain in the South East if he was going by current radar of course I could be dead wrong

Edited June 24, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine
Didn’t look like the post was displaying properly