Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Plumetastic Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight!

I can't  get on WZ - i don't like the other site

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm leads the way again... Firstly we have our own little plume... Then secondly we finishing with the Azores ridge primed to take hold... And it's been showing this for the last several days now... So it's most definitely not a flash in the pan..... GFS.... get your house in order.... Even though you have had millions thrown at you.... Your still the weakest link.....goodbye...

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Plumetastic Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight..ends with the azores high ridging NE across the uk. like the operational!

Boom?..why not..sounds a bit like plume!!!!!!

Edited June 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Djdazzle]

Is it me or is the flow more SE on Fri / Sat according to the ECM?

[clark3r]

What are the experts thoughts on 1) are we going to get a hot spell?2) if so length of time 3) maximum temp likely?

[ANYWEATHER]

Rainfall will bring in the headlines rather than temperature  this week..and forecasting will be a major issue as regards details, Scratching my head for tomorrow's radio forecast...

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, clark3r said:

What are the experts thoughts on 1) are we going to get a hot spell?2) if so length of time 3) maximum temp likely?

I'm no expert, but as I'm online now, I'll give you my answers:

Hot spell? yes probably  towards next weekend.

length of time - this is the difficult one, the real hot uppers will pass for sure, but we will likely be left in a warm summer scenario of an Azores ridge, here ECM mean T240:  

But how long after that is difficult, personally I think if the pattern for hot weather gets it's teeth in, it could stick around even if other signals go the other way....so I'm going for .... For the foreseeable.

Max temp, 37C London or Kent Friday or Saturday, maybe?  But head over to the temperature competition thread for that not this one, please.

[knocker]

Although they are a fair way from being identical the ext EPS mean anomalies had a pretty good stab at the progression over the last five days given the likely speed of the forthcoming pattern change. This leads to weak atlantic trough slowly becoming a more zonal flow across the Atlantic which takes on a familiar look as the evolution progresses. This has all the hallmarks of a typical westerly  upper flow that involves interaction between the Pm and Tm airmasses and thus day to day variation of the detail with temps around average

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Rainfall will bring in the headlines rather than temperature  this week..and forecasting will be a major issue as regards details, Scratching my head for tomorrow's radio forecast...

For sure there is some rainfall for early in the week... But beyond midweek it will be temperatures and sunshine that will be making most of the headlines! And the major headache is gonna be in predicting just how high we can get these temps..... Its all good.... No HLB for a while I'm afraid....

[tight isobar]

ecm 12z..well within the run...

some notable heat punching into the uk..

 

@the london ones.....

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The operational went rather chilly towards the end of the run.. Fortunately the mean remained a tad higher... Pressure wise though we are looking pretty good.... I would say 1020 to 1025 average... I'm sure that mean will begin to rise if we can get the Azores high to flex its muscles. 

Edited June 23, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

The Nao index looks to be heading positive moving into July

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The operational went rather chilly towards the end of the run.. Fortunately the mean remained a tad higher... Pressure wise though we are looking pretty good.... I would say 1020 to 1025 average... I'm sure that mean will begin to rise if we can get the Azores high to flex its muscles. 

a bundle of wriggle room...for heat contination...when drenching through all data!!!!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

a bundle of wriggle room...for heat contination...when drenching through all data!!!!!

Most definitely tight.... The trend is our friend... Good to see you posting again.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Most definitely tight.... The trend is our friend... Good to see you posting again.

What!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Tight Isobar and Steve Murr both posting during the summer..????

Night all!

[Mike Poole]

Crikey! ICON has got it's eyes on us, this at just T96:

Upgrades....

[matty007]

The GFS 12z with some stoncking upper air temps. But ground temps still looking very measly. Very frustrating.

However, I just can't buy into it.

 

[GeordieX9v]

Great uppers again, hopefully we will see some upgrades to the surface temperatures in the next 24 hours...

 

Where I am right now at this moment in time to say it is 'fresh' would be an understatement! It's actually quite nippy! 

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, matty007 said:

The GFS 12z with some stoncking upper air temps. But ground temps still looking very measly. Very frustrating.

However, I just can't buy into it.

 

With surface temperatures rocketing to the low to mid twenties.

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z at end of its short run to T120:  Enjoy:

This story is not over,  next week has massive potential.  Just need to get the angle right on the HP to drag the wind from the SE, this run does that perfectly.

[Man With Beard]

Right, a post for the "hardcorers" - I'm still interested in Friday as it looks pretty close to being exceptionally hot. I studied all 52 ecm members including op + control run and looked at their 4pm temperatures on that day, added the usual 3C to the raw data and got this for highest temperature somewhere in the UK (most commonly around Bristol) :

28C or less:   7 members 

29-31C:   26 members 

32-34C:   15 members 

35C or more:  4 members 

Very little difference between hotter and cooler solutions, generally slightly lower pressure at the centre of the high meant higher temperatures, wind flow, but with some it was hard to see a difference. 

 

[matty007]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That’s odd - we got 24c here in Cambridge.

if we don’t see a couple of really hot days Friday and Saturday this will be the most disappointing weather event I can remember. Potential was there to smash records, and due to a slight bit of bad luck we might miss out. Uppers north of 20c very rarely visit these shores.

No, it certianly wasn't 24c here. It may have touched 21c for a short while but that's about it. Bear in mind that Cambridge is more congested and might have had slightly less cloud.

I couldn't agree more. Unless someone can tell me otherwise, I think this has the potential to be the most potent plume the UK has ever witnessed. Certainly on upper air temps alone. Many charts are still showing the 25c isothern making it to us, and nearly all, the 20c. I know for a fact the 25c isothern has never touched the UK, not even close. The 20c? Not sure, but doubt it. Now obviosuly upper air temps aren't everything and there are many factors, wind speed/direction, soil temps, sunshine amount etc etc.

But you have to say that if this plume does not threaten the June record then it has been spectacularly underwhelming and a massive underperformer. You should be hitting mid thirties at the very least.

I dare say that if this is the case, we may wait for a long long time before we see upper air like this again.

[danm]

13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z at end of its short run to T120:  Enjoy:

This story is not over,  next week has massive potential.  Just need to get the angle right on the HP to drag the wind from the SE, this run does that perfectly.

Definitely more of a SE flow there, which would make a huge difference to temperatures. A subtle shift such as this earlier in the week could result in records being broken. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Fantastic  ICON rightly pointed out by Mike.... Just look how far North we have sent the uppers.... 2m temps of 24c...maybe if largely cloudy.... Plenty of blue sky's... Then chuck another 10 degrees on.. Week of interest coming up for sure.... And I tell you what folks it makes a bloody change of having to keep talking about HLB.... 10c and rain.... Yak... Something much more summer like is on the horizon now.... They say the trains not coming, till you can see the train... Well let's just say I can see the steam in the not to distant background.... Enjoy folks. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Maybe the utterly low 2m temps are just being under estimated and models are only predicting them in a worst case scenario rather than hottest case scenario.