Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

They are astonishing uppers by  uk summer standards..if everything was in our favour we would be looking at widespread mid 30's celsius and higher for the s / se!!!!!!..I honestly can't remember uppers (850's) this high, even during the major heatwaves of the past!!!!!!!!

Normally we’d be looking at high 30’s quite widely and a very high chance of breaking the all time record. I have never seen uppers that high getting into, never mind covering most of the UK. Very frustrating that the low 30’s in a few spots looks like being the absolute maximum we may achieve in this occasion, and the mid twenties in the preceding days. The same temperatures we recorded last summer with uppers around 12’C lower. Really extreme modification by the sea this time.

Edited June 23, 2019 by MattStoke

[J10]

1 hour ago, Leo97t said:

These charts r from Friday so not sure why they are being posted

My bad. but thanks for the polite noticification,

[Frosty.]

A good finish to the Ecm 12z operational with the azores high / ridge building in with intent!

Edited June 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

And there we go,  classic summer profile with a ridge from the Azores from the ECM at T240, and it isn't without support either!

Edited June 23, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Mr Frost]

24 minutes ago, knocker said:

And the important surface analysis at 120

Cheers for that Knocker - I’m on for the high 20’s there! 

GFS for the same day.

Fascinating stuff!

Also can I just say this thread has been brilliant the past week - usually tumbleweed is blowing through here in Summer! Top notch analysis and plenty of different opinions  - makes it a great read everyday! 

Cheers! 

[Derecho]

Is anybody else having issues with getting onto wetterzentrale? I can't access it

ECM is steady and isn't backing down, hopefully we can keep it on Friday / Saturday and not get anymore subtle pushbacks. If we are still seeing the same charts for Friday and Saturday by Tuesday morning I reckon we are in the clear.

[mb018538]

Looks like a one day wonder for an attempt at a mega high maximum - Saturday. Friday hot in the S/SW, but we could have a real shot at 35c+ on Saturday. All eyes on the weekend!

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

They are astonishing uppers by  uk summer standards..if everything was in our favour we would be looking at widespread mid 30's celsius and higher for the s / se!!!!!!..I honestly can't remember uppers (850's) this high, even during the major heatwaves of the past!!!!!!!!

They are certainly the highest in the last 25yrs, probably 100yrs. Shame we can’t take full advantage. Bit liking winning a grand only to lose it then find a tenner the next day...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Is anybody else having issues with getting onto wetterzentrale? I can't access it

ECM is steady and isn't backing down, hopefully we can keep it on Friday / Saturday and not get anymore subtle pushbacks. If we are still seeing the same charts for Friday and Saturday by Tuesday morning I reckon we are in the clear.

I'm having problems QS.. its saying your connection is not private and hackers maybe trying to steal your info.... Never happened before. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Willsy said:

1.5 km

It varies between about 1.1 to 1.5 on what time of year and whether its an upper ridge or trough as well, it can be much lower in winter.

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm having problems QS.. its saying your connection is not private and hackers maybe trying to steal your info.... Never happened before. 

I wouldn't worry too much, Matt...they keep discovering my 'secret' addresses in Muswell Hill. Avast?

Anywho, it's time for the 12Z ensembles!

  

  

Earth-shattering, aren't they?

PS: I've never set foot in Muswell Hill!

PPS: sorry, wrong end of the stick!

Edited June 23, 2019 by Ed Stone

[matt111]

13 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Is anybody else having issues with getting onto wetterzentrale? I can't access it

ECM is steady and isn't backing down, hopefully we can keep it on Friday / Saturday and not get anymore subtle pushbacks. If we are still seeing the same charts for Friday and Saturday by Tuesday morning I reckon we are in the clear.

Just tried and getting a security risk message

Edited June 23, 2019 by matt111

[Dale Hay]

12 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Is anybody else having issues with getting onto wetterzentrale? I can't access it

ECM is steady and isn't backing down, hopefully we can keep it on Friday / Saturday and not get anymore subtle pushbacks. If we are still seeing the same charts for Friday and Saturday by Tuesday morning I reckon we are in the clear.

It seems Wetterzentrale's [website] certificate is invalid - all websites should be accessible through HTTPS (secure) only, not HTTP (not secure), as their website doesn't seem to have this correctly set up, it seems they'll be unavailable until they've sorted that issue.

[Frosty.]

I'm still basking in the warm..actually hot afterglow of the Ecm 12z operational and here are my highlights of the run for anyone who hasn't seen it yet.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[LightningLover]

4 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Just tried and getting a security risk message

I proceeded to the site after the message, and it was a test message/Maintenance message... Huh.

Edited June 23, 2019 by LightningLover

[Derecho]

Just now, Dale Hay said:

It seems Wetterzentrale's [website] certificate is invalid - all websites should be accessible through HTTPS (secure) only, not HTTP (not secure), as their website doesn't seem to have this correctly set up, it seems they'll be unavailable until they've sorted that issue.

Not just me then! What a time to go down hahaha.

Main thing is no hiccups from the ECM however!

[StormChaseUK]

Based on today, the GFS temps are I'm afraid to report,  correct.   So for the rest of the week I would be more inclined to believe those GFS surface outputs

Edited June 23, 2019 by StormChaseUK

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup, i have posted previously about this...

This little trough to the SW could be the pattern changer we have desperately needed for some time.

I don't think little troughs change patterns. The key to what is happening this week - and was forecast to happen - is the impact of the westerly wind burst out in the Indian ocean that began soon after 13th June. This was part of the MJO in its current cycle

Given 7 - 10 day lag effect of a shift like this we are seeing a greater signal for Euro heights and the trough has pulled back west. This is a symptom of an enhanced pacific jet with consequent buckling of the pattern at higher latitudes. In winter it is often what we look for in the hope of seeing a ridge forced to northerly latitudes.

Given the wind burst lasted over 10 days I think we can expect a more high pressure dominated scenario throughout this week and into the start of next.

The tricky bit though - as you can see from the forecast chart above - is that the westerly burst hit the buffers before getting much past the maritimes. and already the trades are pushing back and are forecast to all but wipe out the westerly burst by month's end. Given a 30-60 MJO cycle, and it has been travelling more on the slow side than quick side of late, we can perhaps take a stab at the next westerly burst not arriving for a while.

What does this mean? Pacific jet weakens, and as a result under conservation of AAM we can expect the pattern at our latitude to flatten back out. But this is very simplistic, and often hides small details that for our locale are crucial. For me what will be vital as the pacific resets is just what happens to our north. Throughout May and for much of June we have had a resident HP signal over Greenland. Will this return and the jet be forced far enough south as the signal for Euro ridging fades to give us a return to something rather "average" - or can we achieve a more +NAO pattern and hope that the westerly pattern at least avoids the south of the country? Jury is out...but as I've said before I have a nagging feeling that the pattern might reassert. This FI GEFS anomaly chart might just be the beginning of the process I'm describing - trough returning to the vicinity of the UK as higher pressure is forced back west and possibly NW.

We will see. For now - all hotties (let's agree to use that word a bit more ) should try and enjoy the week to come. For me the interest will be just how many storms enter the mix as instability should be a factor throughout the week at various times, and by next weekend we may have more of an idea as to whether we get a reset with a Greeny high forcing systems back over the UK, or whether we can retain enough high pressure to deflect things to the north under a more +NAO regime.

To that end this may be relevant - shift in SSTs around the UK and to our SW more conducive to supporting the Azores Ridge. Mediterranean also warming up. However notice the more -NAO appearance of the SSTs out in the west atlantic, also suggestive of a possible return of the Greeny High.

July in the balance?

[Djdazzle]

15 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Based on today, the GFS temps are I'm afraid to report,  correct.   So for the rest of the week I would be more inclined to believe those GFS surface outputs

I wouldn’t. Just because they are correct today, doesn’t mean they will be again. They weren’t correct yesterday.

[northwestsnow]

Thanks C a super post giving some insight into the background signals/drivers...

My ref to the trough was to highlight its behavior in promoting the proposed plume-

 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

I wouldn’t. Just because they are correct today, doesn’t mean they will be again. They weren’t correct yesterday.

They were not correct here or along a large portion of the south coast and the forecast 3-5c too low.

[Sweatyman]

26 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I don't think little troughs change patterns. The key to what is happening this week - and was forecast to happen - is the impact of the westerly wind burst out in the Indian ocean that began soon after 13th June. This was part of the MJO in its current cycle

Given 7 - 10 day lag effect of a shift like this we are seeing a greater signal for Euro heights and the trough has pulled back west. This is a symptom of an enhanced pacific jet with consequent buckling of the pattern at higher latitudes. In winter it is often what we look for in the hope of seeing a ridge forced to northerly latitudes.

Given the wind burst lasted over 10 days I think we can expect a more high pressure dominated scenario throughout this week and into the start of next.

The tricky bit though - as you can see from the forecast chart above - is that the westerly burst hit the buffers before getting much past the maritimes. and already the trades are pushing back and are forecast to all but wipe out the westerly burst by month's end. Given a 30-60 MJO cycle, and it has been travelling more on the slow side than quick side of late, we can perhaps take a stab at the next westerly burst not arriving for a while.

What does this mean? Pacific jet weakens, and as a result under conservation of AAM we can expect the pattern at our latitude to flatten back out. But this is very simplistic, and often hides small details that for our locale are crucial. For me what will be vital as the pacific resets is just what happens to our north. Throughout May and for much of June we have had a resident HP signal over Greenland. Will this return and the jet be forced far enough south as the signal for Euro ridging fades to give us a return to something rather "average" - or can we achieve a more +NAO pattern and hope that the westerly pattern at least avoids the south of the country? Jury is out...but as I've said before I have a nagging feeling that the pattern might reassert. This FI GEFS anomaly chart might just be the beginning of the process I'm describing - trough returning to the vicinity of the UK as higher pressure is forced back west and possibly NW.

We will see. For now - all hotties (let's agree to use that word a bit more ) should try and enjoy the week to come. For me the interest will be just how many storms enter the mix as instability should be a factor throughout the week at various times, and by next weekend we may have more of an idea as to whether we get a reset with a Greeny high forcing systems back over the UK, or whether we can retain enough high pressure to deflect things to the north under a more +NAO regime.

To that end this may be relevant - shift in SSTs around the UK and to our SW more conducive to supporting the Azores Ridge. Mediterranean also warming up. However notice the more -NAO appearance of the SSTs out in the west atlantic, also suggestive of a possible return of the Greeny High.

July in the balance?

thanks. Bearer of bad news

[Frosty.]

Plumetastic Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight..ends with the azores high ridging NE across the uk. like the operational!

Edited June 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MattStoke]

49 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Based on today, the GFS temps are I'm afraid to report,  correct.   So for the rest of the week I would be more inclined to believe those GFS surface outputs

Weren’t the other computer models and professional forecasters also correct?

Edited June 23, 2019 by MattStoke

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z ensemble mean.  T120 first:

Strong support for the plume (there you go, I've already said the P word.). Moving on, and perhaps more significantly, T240, and the extended Azores ridge, settling things down towards a decent summer....for now, at any rate!