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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

We actually flirt with another plume on 5th July according to the Gfs 12z operational

Aye, but it's only a flirt, Karl: any strong signs of upcoming plumescence seem to have wilted...? Let's hope that the models (even better, the weather) can come up with a dominant AZH ridge?

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Posted
  • Location: new milton, hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: all weather
  • Location: new milton, hampshire
12 minutes ago, Greggers said:

Are the 850 temps what is at 850 metres or am I wrong?... trying to understand the models better.

1.5 km

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Willsy said:

1.5 km

Wherever the pressure is 850mb (850hPa)...:oldgood:

Anywho, the scrag-end of the 12Z hints at the prospect of an Azores High extension taking hild, sort of, as we go into July: h850t850eu.png h500slp.png

Way too far ahead, to be in any way confident, as yet, but...I'm really looking forward to a 'hot Julie'!:oops:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Here's the GEFS 12z mean 2m temps for the week ahead, as you can see, they don't suggest an event although fri / sat look very warm further s / se... Cooler from sunday?..there are some hot members for the south later in the week so I'm certainly not saying there isn't going to be an event worth remembering!!!

21_54_2mtmpmax.png

21_78_2mtmpmax.png

21_102_2mtmpmax.png

21_126_2mtmpmax.png

21_126_850tmp.png

21_150_2mtmpmax.png

21_174_2mtmpmax.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
44 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Here's the GEFS 12z mean 2m temps for the week ahead, as you can see, they don't suggest an event although fri / sat look very warm further s / se... Cooler from sunday?..there are some hot members for the south later in the week so I'm certainly not saying there isn't going to be an event worth remembering!!!

21_54_2mtmpmax.png

21_78_2mtmpmax.png

21_102_2mtmpmax.png

21_126_2mtmpmax.png

21_126_850tmp.png

21_150_2mtmpmax.png

21_174_2mtmpmax.png

Agreed, Karl, but embedded in that are 3 members that get the +24c isotherm into the UK at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.2ad9fc2ec21b37c4675eb0cc904ae984.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.b7581b972538b75e367e062a16f6fde9.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.06282f7d091e6b7b93b9442063054025.jpg

Of course as we get closer to the event, the more extreme solutions will probably drop away, but they are still there at the moment. 

Don't mention the plume. I might have mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it! 

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
4 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

These charts r from Friday so not sure why they are being posted

yeah a little out of date now

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
7 minutes ago, knocker said:

And the important surface analysis at 120

1078333069_press120.thumb.png.dc967c6756668f41eb637f1865b0a753.png1828844561_temp120.thumb.png.f3df914d6a27dcbf2cfc5bd7735ce4e8.pngindex.thumb.png.43dc07792bc6a80887277c8e4e440faa.png

decent temperatures for a few spots but doesn't look really out of the ordinary unless I'm reading it wrong

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

It is at this point as the plume passes, that the emphasis shifts from 850 temperatures to the pattern that follows on behind.

ECM T168:

image.thumb.jpg.5be6b62f2aef402b489beb0cb2f6ac50.jpg

Bodes well for summer, well I think so anyway! 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

It is at this point as the plume passes, that the emphasis shifts from 850 temperatures to the pattern that follows on behind.

ECM T168:

image.thumb.jpg.5be6b62f2aef402b489beb0cb2f6ac50.jpg

Bodes well for summer, well I think so anyway! 

As long as it's a thundery, but usable one, i'll be happy! 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
11 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

decent temperatures for a few spots but doesn't look really out of the ordinary unless I'm reading it wrong

True but not unexpectedly the pattern transition cuts off the easterly feed on Saturday to bring a much warmer/hot day generally over the UK

1954646100_press150.thumb.png.3e0a201005fbdef9469cc61d5aa41c0f.pngsat.thumb.png.16fd07abcb98cf3e63bb2d0bb16f17d1.png

jet.thumb.png.e2315540d27fa6899c35648ce6ba9d17.png1843312996_jet1.thumb.png.863a4acf3f3c4fd2134d68e0d387fecb.png

Edited by knocker
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