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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
9 minutes ago, shaky said:

And all.of a sudden the gfs decides to join the party and send the 20 degree 850 temp all the way to northern england!!upgrade in that sense!!

Thank goodness for that! No delays for this run so 6 hours closer to fruition.

According to GFS, the warmest place is Northern Scotland despite a slack SE wind.... don't  buy into that.

Main thing is to keep bringing in those hot uppers sooner and GFS stops its subtle rot. We can worry about temperatures at the surface later...

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The strong breeze gusting 40-45mph will drag that cooler surface layer a long across the country, that’s been consistently modelled for the last 48hrs now.

No way will it be THAT windy!

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Met. Rising Star

Met.

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
  • Location: Sheffield
Posted
5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, Tuesday looks quite chilly, horrible day

 

 

image.png

I'm not even sure how that can be feasibly possible unless heavy detritus from decaying thunderstorms is stuck over the entire country all day long with no sun at all.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Stop with these discussions about average temps/conditions, now please.

If you want to carry on, do so over HERE

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Looks like we can write mon-wed off as non starters now. The SW might do ok Thursday, Friday and Saturday look to be the really hot days with a better wind direction. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

 The expected surface temperatures are very underwhelming for such a setup, owing to our island climate with significant modification of air coming over the North Sea.

Indeed, and the North sea is rather cool to say the least..as I've said, it's a week of marked contrasting fortunes, the east could be cool and dull whereas the s / w become very summery.

sea-temperature.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Popular Post
Posted

Putting the plume aside for a moment, I think the real story tonight is the Azores ridge that seems to follow it, here T192 on FV3, old GFS and GEM:

image.thumb.jpg.2399a813259059a9fc1d6a9211247fcd.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.ed6fe22107cbf5d9a5f83e98c58c1753.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.91ea729198e0bebf53efc81a242c4160.jpg

Signs of summer proper...

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Judging by some of the posts on here I think it's fair to say, a good many of you will have to rethink your temperature forecasts in the competition  thread.... I'm liking the GEM.... Those 2m temps looking much better folks

gem-1-102.png

gem-1-120.png

gem-1-126.png

gem-9-126.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yesterday’s ECM was gusting 50mph in south west....

Have we got a plume on the way.... Or a tropical storm....  

Edited by Mattwolves
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Putting the plume aside for a moment, I think the real story tonight is the Azores ridge that seems to follow it, here T192 on FV3, old GFS and GEM:

image.thumb.jpg.2399a813259059a9fc1d6a9211247fcd.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.ed6fe22107cbf5d9a5f83e98c58c1753.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.91ea729198e0bebf53efc81a242c4160.jpg

Signs of summer proper...

Yup, i have posted previously about this...

This little trough to the SW could be the pattern changer we have desperately needed for some time.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Gfs 12z operational for the week ahead looks warm and humid on most days with low to mid 20's celsius and high 20's c at times for the s / se but again, especially tuesday looks very poor temperature wise for a large swathe of the uk..probably fri / sat are the warmest days covering a large area...The east coastal strip looks much cooler than elsewhere with low cloud at times which may push further inland along with more modest 2m temps.

Edited by Jon Snow
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philglossop Community Regular

philglossop

Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup, i have posted previously about this...

This little trough to the SW could be the pattern changer we have desperately needed for some time.

Agreed that Azores High ridging in has been appearing for days and has been largely overlooked because of the plume. That’s going to be the big story of early July by the looks of things- nice settled weather with temps in low 20s. Suits me 

Edited by philglossop
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I spent years, as a kid, wondering why depressions never have a 'cold sector', only to find that they sometimes do...In sodding July!

h850t850eu.png

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, philglossop said:

Agreed that Azores High ridging in has been appearing for days and has been largely overlooked because of the plume. That’s going to be the big story of early July by the looks of things- nice settled weather with temps in low 20s. Suits me 

But it doesn’t really build in at all in the later stages of the gfs 12z . Low pressure gets dumped over us . Think people are getting carried away in thinking summer is here to stay until the end of August , all because this week is gonna be summery . You ant gonna get a continuous hot summer like last year . 

8F45F9B8-E856-4E75-B6A0-B94E29C39679.png

8E8E2B0F-82FB-41A0-B565-C54BA47A0F3A.png

E6A733A0-EF5A-46F9-849A-5C9D9C12C8D3.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

We actually flirt with another plume on the 4th / 5th July according to the Gfs 12z operational

Edited by Jon Snow
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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

But it doesn’t really build in at all in the later stages of the gfs 12z . Low pressure gets dumped over us . Think people are getting carried away in thinking summer is here to stay until the end of August , all because this week is gonna be summery . You ant gonna get a continuous hot summer like last year . 

Who’s talked about continuous heat till the end of August? This coming week is going to be warm/hot and next week could see the Azores high ridging in bringing warm, settled weather. That’s all we know.

Edited by danm
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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Greggers said:

Are the 850 temps what is at 850 metres or am I wrong?... trying to understand the models better.

The 850hpa level, about 1500m above sea level.

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Ross Andrew Hemphill Community Regular

Ross Andrew Hemphill

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Greggers said:

Are the 850 temps what is at 850 metres or am I wrong?... trying to understand the models better.

850hpa is around 1500 metres above sea level 

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
4 minutes ago, Greggers said:

Are the 850 temps what is at 850 metres or am I wrong?... trying to understand the models better.

Approx 1500 metres

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
3 minutes ago, Greggers said:

Are the 850 temps what is at 850 metres or am I wrong?... trying to understand the models better.

The 850 temperatures are the temperature at a height where the pressure is 850 mbar, about 1500m.  At that height they are not affected by day to night variation and are therefore a good measure of the temperature of the air mass that is over us.  Hope that helps.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

But it doesn’t really build in at all in the later stages of the gfs 12z . Low pressure gets dumped over us . Think people are getting carried away in thinking summer is here to stay until the end of August , all because this week is gonna be summery . You ant gonna get a continuous hot summer like last year . 

8F45F9B8-E856-4E75-B6A0-B94E29C39679.png

8E8E2B0F-82FB-41A0-B565-C54BA47A0F3A.png

E6A733A0-EF5A-46F9-849A-5C9D9C12C8D3.png

Can i ask who is suggesting summer is here to stay until the end of August?

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