Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Paul]

There's a lot to talk about in the model output at the moment, as the first plume of hot, humid and unstable air is arriving with us today, so a good time for a fresh thread.

As ever, please keep your posts friendly & about the models in here!

Alternative Threads:
To chat more generally about the summer weather please head to the summer thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91676-summer-2019-moans-ramps-chat-etc/

And to post tweets about the models (although you're still welcome to use the Model Output Discussion thread), please see this thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87130-model-tweets/

For the Met Office outlooks, please use this one:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
GFS
GFS FV3 (Parallel)
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Golbal Jetstream
Stratosphere

[Methuselah]

GFS not looking at all bad, come T+225: very pleasant?

  

[mb018538]

Just going back to 2018...

That set up gave 33c at Porthmadog in June last year, with a North Sea easterly  flow...what’s so different from that to this weeks set up that would potentially suppress temperatures as much as the gfs keeps showing?? Genuinely interested to know!

[johnholmes]

Anyone wanting to see an explanation re Met predicted temperatures and probable reasons please go to the Met O thread

[Paul]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Just going back to 2018...

That set up gave 33c at Porthmadog in June last year, with a North Sea easterly  flow...what’s so different from that to this weeks set up that would potentially suppress temperatures as much as the gfs keeps showing?? Genuinely interested to know!

This:

 

[Frosty.]

According to the Gfs 6z operational there's no heatwave coming, 2m temps are nothing to write home about all next week, sure it looks mostly warm, especially further s / se when next tuesday & saturday are the warmest days but tues / wed the temperatures look pathetic for the majority!!...Becoming quite warm for scotland for a time which would make a nice change for them!

Edited June 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Looking at the gfs 6z temps for next week the hot spell may aswell be a non event. Ridiculously low 16 to 22C elsewhere while London only gets mid to high 20s. Paris and Northern France really going for it into the high 30s.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I've spent the last hour not knowing if I was viewing the models thread or the guess the temperature competition thread... ECM, UKMO, ICON all bringing a notable plume, ICON really does push that plume far North as well. This guessing the temps business is probably a little ridiculous! If we new for sure what conditions would be like come next weekend.... Ie.. Extensive cloud cover or blue sky's, we would have a decent chaince of nailing them. June 95....Estly wind bringing in extensive low cloud cover in during the night... This cloud persisted on the coasts... But inland it would clear by late morning!! Temps on the coast high teens at best! Inland areas were getting up to low 30s! Same applies here really!! Anywhere that gets the extensive sun is sure to breach 35c....other places will be left wondering what on earth happened to the much hyped heatwave.... In fairness its going to be at least Wednesday before we can have a better take on potential maximums!! 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean for the week ahead, the incredible 850's later in the week give a very false impression and essentially mean nothing as the 2m temps look subdued..due to a number of factors including surface wind flow, cloud cover and indeed rain..very disappointing indeed.. although of course this doesn't preclude the weather hotting up later in the week, it's only based on the mean..the 6z mean does then indicate cooler / fresher atlantic air sweeping in from next weekend.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[GeordieX9v]

2 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Looking at the gfs 6z temps for next week the hot spell may aswell be a non event. Ridiculously low 16 to 22C elsewhere while London only gets mid to high 20s. Paris and Northern France really going for it into the high 30s.

The GFS isn't the only weather model and it isn't always correct.

[Derecho]

6 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Looking at the gfs 6z temps for next week the hot spell may aswell be a non event. Ridiculously low 16 to 22C elsewhere while London only gets mid to high 20s. Paris and Northern France really going for it into the high 30s.

I'm still of the belief it will get warmer then that for many however...

The 20C is stuck to the south coast at best now on the 06z ensembles and it wouldn't surprise me if we see it fail to make an appearance at all over England by tomorrow mornings output, with any plume being limited to the far SE corner.

Overlooking small details means some are prone to getting far too overexcited and if such a backtrack scenario materialized then I don't think people will remember plumegate for very long.  

Edited June 23, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, evans1892 said:

The GFS isn't the only weather model and it isn't always correct.

The GEFS mean agrees with it.

[J10]

The ECM 00Hz run seems keener on introducing very warm 850HPA over Southern areas. 24c for the South Coast 00Hz Friday, and over 20c as far north as Blackpool on 00Hz Saturday.

I know others are saying that GFS in particular is downplaying 2m Temps. (and to a certain extent ECM as well.

However plumes effecting so much of the UK seem rare, and we shall wait and see the impact on the ground.

IMO If the plume forecasts are anything like accurate, Max Temps are likely to be well above what at least the GFS this morning is implying.

I know that showing Met Office forecast are frowned upon but they are showing temps of 23-27c widely as Maximum Temps for South Western parts and Wales on Thursday.

Edited June 23, 2019 by J10

[matty007]

12 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

The GFS isn't the only weather model and it isn't always correct.

Hear hear.

 

[Stabilo19]

16 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Looking at the gfs 6z temps for next week the hot spell may aswell be a non event. Ridiculously low 16 to 22C elsewhere while London only gets mid to high 20s. Paris and Northern France really going for it into the high 30s.

Even for Paris and northern France, the extreme heat has apparently been watered down and pushed back - more like high 20s, low to mid 30s. This is despite 850 temperatures of 18-26 degrees.

So it seems either there will be a lot of cloud and rain over western Europe or ground temperatures will be higher than forecast.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Stabilo19

[matty007]

Just now, Stabilo19 said:

Even for Paris and northern France, the extreme heat has apparently been watered down and pushed back - more like high 20s, low to mid 30s. This is despite 850 temperatures of 18-26 degrees.

So it seems either there will be a lot of cloud and rain over western Europe or ground temperatures will be higher than forecast.

Or......the temp charts are wrong.....umm there's a thought.

I have a feeling this plume will be much hotter than people that are looking at the GFS charts are thinking.

[GeordieX9v]

14 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The GEFS mean agrees with it.

It may do, but I believe in Winter at some point the GFS was showing us an easterly pattern, and had the backing of the GEFS and it never materialised. My point was mainly directed at people who only seem to care about the GFS and its output. UKMO & ECM look just fine to me. I still believe the surface temperatures being shown currently are just plain wrong.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

It may do, but I believe in Winter at some point the GFS was showing us an easterly pattern, and had the backing of the GEFS and it never materialised. My point was mainly directed at people who only seem to care about the GFS and its output. UKMO & ECM look just fine to me. I still believe the surface temperatures being shown currently are just plain wrong.

All the models was in agreement for a major cold snap.... It was icon that backtracked, and the others followed suite... So icon for sure is an underestimated model for sure. And looking at the icon this morning... Its gone from sending the plume East, to building it North across the UK.... Hopefully its onto something! 

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

It may do, but I believe in Winter at some point the GFS was showing us an easterly pattern, and had the backing of the GEFS and it never materialised. My point was mainly directed at people who only seem to care about the GFS and its output. UKMO & ECM look just fine to me. I still believe the surface temperatures being shown currently are just plain wrong.

Well I already said the average looking GFS op / GEFS 6z mean doesn't preclude our weather hotting up..there's a plume certainly coming.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Stabilo19]

Comparing the GFS 00Z to the 06Z in the more reliable time frame:

Monday 00Z: 

Monday 06Z:

 

GFS trending a degree or two warmer in the south, much the same elsewhere, though perhaps a degree or two cooler in parts of the north.

Tuesday 00Z:

Tuesday 06Z:

GFS trending warmer in the south east, with London potentially hitting 30 degrees, but cooler in the north probably with rain/thunderstorms.

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

Comparing the GFS 00Z to the 06Z in the more reliable time frame:

Monday 00Z: 

Monday 06Z:

 

GFS trending a degree or two warmer in the south, much the same elsewhere, though perhaps a degree or two cooler in parts of the north.

Tuesday 00Z:

Tuesday 06Z:

GFS trending warmer in the south east, with London potentially hitting 30 degrees, but cooler in the north probably with rain/thunderstorms.

 

 

I  understand your point... But you need to be comparing the  0z runs with the 0z runs, and the 6z runs with the 6z runs.... Like for like really... 

[matty007]

Ecm, Gem, Icon, Navgem and ARPEGE all in full agreement. Going on percentages, that ounumbers GFS by 84%.

I really would love to know why people are so fixated by the GFS and are totally oblivious or sceptical as to  what all the others are showing.

 

Edited June 23, 2019 by matty007

[ChezWeather]

Moving away from this week for a moment, what do you guys think the general pattern will be as we move into July? 

Im no expert obviously so its far beyond my ability to call it, but what sort of evolution could we see from say here at 240hrs (gfs)

Edited June 23, 2019 by ChezWeather

[GeordieX9v]

6 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Ecm, Gem, Icon, Navgem and ARPEGE all in full agreement. Going on percentages, that ounumbers GFS by 84%.

I really would love to know why people are so fixated by the GFS and are totally oblivious or sceptical as to  what all the others are showing.

 

I assume it's because it appears to be the most known, easiest to access and quite basic.

 

- That's the last I'm saying on the matter, so that things don't get way off topic.

Edited June 23, 2019 by evans1892
To prevent off-topic discussion.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Ecm, Gem, Icon, Navgem and ARPEGE all in full agreement. Going on percentages, that ounumbers GFS by 84%.

I really would love to know why people are so fixated by the GFS and are totally oblivious or sceptical as to  what all the others are showing.

 

You can add the JMA to that as well... This from the 0z...6z just rolling out.