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How hot will it be? Temperature Competition


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I would call today fresh coolest day this week it make 16.2c briefly no sun at all,north sea must be miserably chilly.

Unlike yesterday which was humid.

Edited by Snowyowl9
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The top official temperature yesterday was - drumroll..... 34c. Recorded in Northholt (London). That makes our winner @shuggee?  Thanks to all who took part, temperatures never made it to the hei

I'll go with the BBC.-8 and Snow..

Good grief, with a change of wind direction from onshore to off, Lossiemouth has apparently seen a rise of 10 degrees in an hour to 27°C, with 7 degree increase in 20 minutes.

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Seems that 25C was the top mark at official sites. Here it rocketed to 24C by midday but then stalled and didn't go much higher. A pretty good effort from the "better" models then. The wind must have had an impact, as the set-up would usually have returned 28/29C round here. 

GFS, as expected, way off, 5C too low. Met Office video at lunchtime, though, went for 28C - too high!! 

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54 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Seems that 25C was the top mark at official sites. Here it rocketed to 24C by midday but then stalled and didn't go much higher. A pretty good effort from the "better" models then. The wind must have had an impact, as the set-up would usually have returned 28/29C round here. 

GFS, as expected, way off, 5C too low. Met Office video at lunchtime, though, went for 28C - too high!! 

Seems a common theme with GFS being too low. The Met Office Chart temps seem much closer.

They are going for 25c for Wales on Friday, with the video going for 30c, interesting to see which one closer. Perhaps 27-28c likely inland.

 

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Despite thicknesses and upper temp profile today has been a cool one for many, only localised sheltered southern parts have seen anything on what you could describe the warm front.

Tomorrow might bring a localised 26 possibly 27 degrees, localised being the word. Only Friday and Saturday and possibly Sunday for far SE will significant heat. I suspect Heathrow will see 32 degrees on Saturday, a high reading but nothing too unusual given we are nearly in July.

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No improvement yesterday, Porthmadog took the honours @ 24.7. 

And high on the North York Moors :cold:

1 hour ago, 4wd said:

There was actually ground frost this morning at 2.6C
Is that a late spring frost or early autumn one!

We should start to trouble the scoreboard a bit more on Friday and Saturday at least. Today looks warmer in the west too, but touch and go in terms of bettering the 26.4c we've seen already.

Meanwhile, in Germany - the June record has fallen. 

 

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Well the rain down here moved eastwards on monday eve from its suggested track so the hot weather plume does the same.

I never brought the stupid high temps here, but I am glad I dont live in Europe now, yet again 100 ish miles difference, remind you of winter lol..

I must admit I didnt expect every day to be as low as it has been away from the east coasts.
I do feel happy with my guess along with plenty of others.

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I just don't get it. Models like the ECM, ARPEGE, AROME and HIRLAM are all more or less on the same page today

arpegeuk-31-18-0.png?27-05

yet this morning's Met Office video is going for 26-28C widely across central and western areas, even to London.

What is going on!!!!!

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I just don't get it. Models like the ECM, ARPEGE, AROME and HIRLAM are all more or less on the same page today

arpegeuk-31-18-0.png?27-05

yet this morning's Met Office video is going for 26-28C widely across central and western areas, even to London.

What is going on!!!!!

They are too low, parts of Scotland are already exceeding those maxima and its only 10am (Aboyne for example is already at 21C). The GFS is also out of kilter as I will show in the model thread ? 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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I think to be fair to contest entrants, what anyone predicted for Friday or Saturday remains to be tested and gives no indication of what any individual forecaster thought yesterday or today might have produced. A few entries did mention Thursday and I think most of those were further west so they showed some understanding of the process at work, even if those forecasts are all going to be a few degrees too warm. There's no telling what will actually happen when the east wind shuts down and a southerly flow begins to take control. Brest which is hardly a hot spot normally has a current humidex value of 42 C. It seems like the containment of the heat in northern France is allowing very high dew points to pool but when that dam breaks and the heat can move further north, it may then begin to reduce the dew points so I would look for something like 34/22 values in south central England. 

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5 hours ago, J10 said:

Max Temps today 27c at Newquay, Exeter amd Pembrey.

27.1 deg C at Porthmadog, per Met Office extremes page.

Unusually as posted above, beaten by both Shannon Airport (28.4) *and* Valentia Observatory (28.0) in SW Ireland! Valentia is almost as far west as it's possible to be, in the British Isles.

 

Edited by DaveL
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Yeah I think a 34-35c is looking more than possible given the figures we have aloft, literally the only thing holding temps back is the relatively cool start compared to what you'd expect with 20-23c 850hpa temps aloft. Other than that I suspect temperatures will really shoot up.

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Porthmadog took the top spot again yesterday at 27.1c. 

Looking like that'll be bettered today and tomorrow though. UKV has 35c showing for London..

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Temperatures in the south west seem to be above yesterday.

Currently 18C in Leeds and cloudless but the sun held off until around 11 which was the same as yesterday so not expecting much difference.

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Caernarfon airport, just to the north of Porthmadog, also reached 27°C yesterday though rounded values on METAR, and today reported 28°C at 11 and 12 BST before dropping back to 26°C at 13:00 with a switch to a westerly breeze off the sea. Porthmadog was behind at this stage but now hit 28.4°C at 13:00.

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Does anybody have a dew point forecast for Leeds tomorrow. Today is actually windier and xcweather confirms a slightly lower dewpoint (about 2C) than yesterday despite similar maxima (assuming we get another degree or two).

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48 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Caernarfon airport, just to the north of Porthmadog, also reached 27°C yesterday though rounded values on METAR, and today reported 28°C at 11 and 12 BST before dropping back to 26°C at 13:00 with a switch to a westerly breeze off the sea. Porthmadog was behind at this stage but now hit 28.4°C at 13:00.

Chivenor has now also hit 29C at 14.00 according to the Meto site. Where do you get the values for sites like Porthmadog? 

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