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Paul

How hot will it be? Temperature Competition

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10 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Im on that as well.

Did we win ? What’s the official score we can’t be far away 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

Did we win ? What’s the official score we can’t be far away 

Doubt it now - looks like just 34.

 

hoping the cet is gonna be boosted a bit to avoid another shameful performance in  that competition.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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The top official temperature yesterday was - drumroll..... 34c. Recorded in Northholt (London). That makes our winner @shuggee😄 

Thanks to all who took part, temperatures never made it to the heights they looked like they may, but it was still fun regardless. We'll do it again soon!

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Whatever Northolt recorded, I also saw a report that Heathrow had a maximum of 34.0.

Honourable mention should go to Ben Sainsbury at 34.1 who also said Heathrow Saturday. Of all the forecasts that were close to 34, I think that one had the least total variance in terms of temperature, location and timing. From my table of entries, these are the forecasts that came within half a degree of 34 (and I will keep an eye on developments in case the Metoffice comes up with a different number affecting this outcome) Some others deserve credit for predicting these close temperatures at either Northolt or Heathrow on Sat 29. 

FORECASTS WITHIN 0.5 of 34.0

Sir Mim __________________34.5 ___ Gravesend ____________Sat 29

Snow Queen One __________34.5 ___ Heathrow _____________Sat 29

Dean E __________________ 34.5 ___ Gosport Fleetlands _____Thu 27

snowrye _________________ 34.5 ___ Gravesend ____________

Stargazer ________________ 34.4 ___ Wisley _______________ Fri 28

Mark Wheeler _____________34.4 ___ Northolt ______________ Sat 29

tesaro ___________________ 34.4 ___ Cambridge Cambs _____ Sat 29

Feb1991Blizzard __________ 34.4 ___ Richmond (Gr Lon) _____ Sat 29

nn2013 __________________34.3 ___ Heathrow _____________ Fri 28

mike5900 ________________ 34.3 ___ Dorset _______________ Thu 27

cheshire snow ____________ 34.2 ___ Stoke on Trent _________ Sat 29

Ben Sainsbury ____________ 34.1 ___ Heathrow _____________ Sat 29

shuggee _________________ 34.0 ___ Cambs _______________ 

bazooka bob ______________33.9 ___ Wiltshire ______________ Fri 28

bybo 1999 ________________33.9 ___ Gravesend ____________ Sat 29

zmstorm _________________ 33.7 ___ Gravesend ____________Sat 29

nicknacknoo ______________ 33.7 

mother nature rocks ________ 33.7 ___ Heathrow _____________Fri 28

stainesbloke ______________ 33.6 ___ Heathrow _____________Sat 29

spurskevin _______________ 33.6 ___ Gravesend ____________ Sat 29

Another Kent clipper ________33.5 ___ Bury St Edmunds _______Fri (30) -- assume means 28th

 

I could add that our group consensus was pretty good considering the five or six day lead time, the median forecast was only 1.1 deg higher at 35.1 and it was also for Heathrow on Saturday 29th by majority choices. That is probably better than most computer models did from last weekend when the contest entries were gathered.

Of our 121 forecasts, 34 were too low and 86 were too high (one was spot on). Counting two that were disqualified for predicting a Sunday max, that changed to 34 and 88. As a group we were not that far off, as individuals some of us were rather wide of the mark. 

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Are you going to do another one for next week end?its potentially looking hot again 👍 

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Well it was fun to post a silly temperature and hope the models had got the 850hpa / surface temperature relationship wrong... I do feel a little silly now 😞 but a better weather forecaster as a result 🙂

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So as expected a couple of days after I posted mine, I was way off with 37.3°C. 😳

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On 30/06/2019 at 08:43, Paul said:

The top official temperature yesterday was - drumroll..... 34c. Recorded in Northholt (London). That makes our winner @shuggee😄 

Thanks to all who took part, temperatures never made it to the heights they looked like they may, but it was still fun regardless. We'll do it again soon!

Just following up on this. As Shuggee is part of the team, he already has a subscription to NW Extra, so the next competition will be a rollover with the top 2 winning the prize.

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On 30/06/2019 at 07:43, Paul said:

The top official temperature yesterday was - drumroll..... 34c. Recorded in Northholt (London). That makes our winner @shuggee😄 

Thanks to all who took part, temperatures never made it to the heights they looked like they may, but it was still fun regardless. We'll do it again soon!

Dang, I put 33.7... so close.

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Posted (edited)

Anyway whatever the debate , I should have won the competition because I was only 0.4c out and had the exact location right , my toys are firmly out of the pram 😂.

Edited by Mark wheeler

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2 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

Anyway whatever the debate , I should have won the competition because I was only 0.4c out and had the exact location right , my toys are firmly out of the pram 😂.


Go do some research on weather station output error. You might just be within the margin of error produced by ageing electronics.

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I'm going to split the discussion around siting of stations etc out into its own discussion (as requested a few days back 🙂 )

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Paul said:

I'm going to split the discussion around siting of stations etc out into its own discussion (as requested a few days back 🙂 )

 

 

However, having just read through the full discussion of this issue can I say how interesting and informative it was for me, as a purely amateur weather fan.  It never ceases to amaze me how many other subjects and sciences are involved with meteorology and how much you can learn by reading the output of specialists and non-specialists alike.  Thanks to all who posted on the subject - and it's also nice to see that no tempers were lost in the discussion!

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28 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

However, having just read through the full discussion of this issue can I say how interesting and informative it was for me, as a purely amateur weather fan.  It never ceases to amaze me how many other subjects and sciences are involved with meteorology and how much you can learn by reading the output of specialists and non-specialists alike.  Thanks to all who posted on the subject - and it's also nice to see that no tempers were lost in the discussion!

The discussion hasn't been removed at all, I've just split it out as it obviously warrants its own topic rather than sitting in here a bit hidden because the title etc doesn't match it. The new thread is here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/92073-northolt-heathrow-temperature-records-and-weather-station-siting/

 

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