How hot will it be? Temperature Competition

[Mapantz]

[MattStoke]

20 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

That's true, normally due to a change of wind direction. My point was that as the ground heats up it emits radiation more rapidly, so solar heating has to battle harder in order to maintain (on average) linear temperature increases.

But the ground emitting radiation further heats the air just above it. That's one of the reasons why the highest temperatures are normally late afternoon rather than when the sun is directly overhead.

Edited June 29, 2019 by MattStoke

[Relativistic]

14 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

But the ground emitting radiation further heats the air just above it.

Yes, but much of that heat ends up going up and away from the ground.

In response to your edit, I'm not disagreeing with that. The point I was making was that linear temperature increases are unrealistic - it's not like you climb 1C per hour until you peak and then start dropping again. It's a smoother process* where the rate of increase slows until you hit the maximum.

*barring short-term fluctuations

Edited June 29, 2019 by Relativistic

[matty007]

Harrow with 35.7c. Not an official station unfortunately 

[danm]

8 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Harrow with 35.7c. Not an official station unfortunately 

Yep wouldn’t rely on that one. Think we’ve reached the peak now, 35c and also the June record looks to be intact. 

Northolt peaked at 34c but has dropped back to 33.6c. Heathrow also dropped from 33.6c to 33c.

[mb018538]

It could be that one of the stations that don’t report hourly on weather online etc could take top spot later on

[Relativistic]

Heathrow recorded 33.9C at 4pm.

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/daily-top-20/maxt

[matty40s]

Northamptonshire.....came down to 34.1 when we got moving though.

[danm]

Heathrow back to 33.9c

[mb018538]

looks like the forecasters may have got it spot on today. Not bad going at all 

[MattStoke]

On 22/06/2019 at 22:08, MattStoke said:

39.1’C, Northolt, Saturday 29th June.

Made my prediction back before it was clear the extremely high 850 hpa temperatures wouldn’t translate into extremely high surface temperatures for some unknown reason Got the location right at least.

[The PIT]

Well Sunny Sheffield has created a new record on my Davis station of 30.5C

[Summer Sun]

An Unofficial thermometer in Zaragoza, Spain, has hit 51c today obviously exposed to the sun but it must be into the 40s locally 

[CheesepuffScott]

 

[SLEETY]

37 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Made my prediction back before it was clear the extremely high 850 hpa temperatures wouldn’t translate into extremely high surface temperatures for some unknown reason Got the location right at least.

well some places have had their warmest June day for 40 years so don't know how you can say we haven't had extremely high surface temps,when that is exactly what we have had !

[sunnijim]

34.0c,at Heathrow and Northolt the tops so far today,.

We may have to wait into the evening to see if another station has topped that.

[MattStoke]

22 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

well some places have had their warmest June day for 40 years so don't know how you can say we haven't had extremely high surface temps,when that is exactly what we have had !

OK. Record breaking then, if you want to be pedantic about it. We’d normally expect all time records to go in such a setup, never mind June records. Hence I and others made such high predictions.

Edited June 29, 2019 by MattStoke

[Snowyowl9]

Hottest day for 1 year lol at 27.3c

[ThatGFS]

Delete please thank you 

[bazookabob]

Oh bloody hell my guess was 33.9c I thought, no it never lands bang on a figure so I'll go 0.1 less... Just my luck!  

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

OK. Record breaking then, if you want to be pedantic about it. We’d normally expect all time records to go in such a setup, never mind June records. Hence I and others made such high predictions.

For all the reasons explained ie source surface air, low SSTs, wet ground, no real day on day heating etc I feel we’ve missed out on something special and the 34c is a good 4-5c lower than what we could of expected with one or more of the previously mentioned factors being better positioned. 

[matty007]

Just now, Alderc said:

For all the reasons explained ie source surface air, low SSTs, wet ground, no real day on day heating etc I feel we’ve missed out on something special and the 34c is a good 4-5c lower than what we could of expected with one or more of the previously mentioned factors being better positioned. 

Facts. 

 

Don’t get me wrong, great day today. But it could have been so much better. 

With France getting 45c, we should of had 38-40c easily. 

[BeazleyBlizzard]

I don't know about you lot, but there's been a whole day of stunning weather. After what has been a very slow to start summer, we've had temps peaking at 34 deg on the model reports so far. I am very happy with this. May more plumes be forecast. Forget the records and enjoy the heat. We'll have plenty of time to discuss what could of been when the Atlantic kicks back into action and we're left with cloud and drizzle. Smiles all round in East Hampshire.

[MattStoke]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

For all the reasons explained ie source surface air, low SSTs, wet ground, no real day on day heating etc I feel we’ve missed out on something special and the 34c is a good 4-5c lower than what we could of expected with one or more of the previously mentioned factors being better positioned. 

Air flow today (southerly winds) was about as good as it gets for little moderation of surface air. Only a South Easterly would be better. 

The July record temperature was set just 3 days later that this date, in the year 2015, and that was a very short blast of warm air without heat building for days beforehand.

Normally we’d have a pretty high chance of recording 40’C for the first time with such a warm airmass. This time last year uppers were only 12’C and it was exceeding 30’C at the surface, and there have been hotter spells than today with far lower uppers. The all time record was set with lower uppers. Therefore, I still don’t understand why surface temperatures weren’t a lot higher. The only thing I can think of is the ground being so wet, certainly up here where it’s rained for weeks.

[bazookabob]

Bloody hell @shuggeehas got 34.0c as well #fix