How hot will it be? Temperature Competition

[Roger J Smith]

Paul, what's the status of the two forecasts that mentioned Sunday 30th? Are they still playing their temperatures and locations? If so, I can edit that part into the table of entries. 

Also, somebody commented that the forecast for their location was only 26 C. I didn't count that as an entry. 

[Paul]

Yep, Sunday is too late unfortunately, so can't count those. 

[Roger J Smith]

Okay, well my table has 121 entries, so the median value is 35.2 C. If we counted the two with the wrong Sunday date, which are both above that, the totals are 123 and the median is 35.4 C ... 41 (plus the 2 excluded) said Heathrow, 20 said some other location in London or suburbs, excluding the 17 who said Gravesend (one other said just Kent). Those total 79 (or 81) of the 121 entries. Of the rest, Cheltenham is picked by six, then two others are close in saying Worcs and Warwick. This leaves 34 scattered around various parts of the country, about half a dozen are in East Anglia and Cambridge, a similar number in the Thames valley to Somerset, and also Wales and Scotland get mentions. (about 10% failed to pick a location at all). Then as to dates chosen, it goes 9 for Thursday, 44 for Friday and 56 for Saturday (and 2 for Sunday) with the rest not picking any date. 

 

[Man With Beard]

So are we still happy with our predictions?? Despite all the debate about suppressed temperatures, I still have a good feeling about my 39C in Porthmadog! Crazy uppers, decent breeze leading to foehn effect... 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So are we still happy with our predictions?? Despite all the debate about suppressed temperatures, I still have a good feeling about my 39C in Porthmadog! Crazy uppers, decent breeze leading to foehn effect... 

I actually was starting to think my 34.4c was a little high, there wasn't that many runs showing it and no areas on the BBC location forecasts showing more than 32 and thats based on the ECM, but been as you are the CET champion 2 out of 3 years (and there's a reason for that - you make sensible predictions), and your going 39, makes me think perhaps ive gone too low now!

[Weather Boy]

Am I too late?

 

36.6°C Heathrow. Saturday.

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Am I too late?

 

36.6°C Heathrow. Saturday.

Yes - cut off point was last night.

[Weather Boy]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - cut off point was last night.

Since noticed. Never too late for bragging though. Except that someone else picked that figure also.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I actually was starting to think my 34.4c was a little high, there wasn't that many runs showing it and no areas on the BBC location forecasts showing more than 32 and thats based on the ECM, but been as you are the CET champion 2 out of 3 years (and there's a reason for that - you make sensible predictions), and your going 39, makes me think perhaps ive gone too low now!

Sensible? LoL!!

I'm a bit of a split personality between the MOD thread and the CET competition! 

This is a pure hunch. I've just seen weird things go on in NW Wales in these kinds of set ups. I remember when they broke the November record temperature by miles a few years back when most of the UK was shivering with cold, and last year many places were barely making 25C while Porthmadog was knocking out 32Cs and 33Cs daily, also on a North Sea track wind. 

I'm banking on temperatures by Friday being generally around 30C in SE Wales, but as the air hits the mountains of mid Wales, the north sea wind is struck dead, allowing the upper air to have more influence locally, whilst of course warming even more as it descends on the other side. If I've got this right, it may well be that certain localized spots end up 6 or 7 degrees ahead of the vast majority of recordings. 

The other spot I've got my eye on is Barnstable, which I've seen forecast to have uppers of 27C on Friday on some charts. That will also be sheltered behind Exmoor, so you'd think the North Sea influence would be seriously negated there. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Sensible? LoL!!

I'm a bit of a split personality between the MOD thread and the CET competition! 

This is a pure hunch. I've just seen weird things go on in NW Wales in these kinds of set ups. I remember when they broke the November record temperature by miles a few years back when most of the UK was shivering with cold, and last year many places were barely making 25C while Porthmadog was knocking out 32Cs and 33Cs daily, also on a North Sea track wind. 

I'm banking on temperatures by Friday being generally around 30C in SE Wales, but as the air hits the mountains of mid Wales, the north sea wind is struck dead, allowing the upper air to have more influence locally, whilst of course warming even more as it descends on the other side. If I've got this right, it may well be that certain localized spots end up 6 or 7 degrees ahead of the vast majority of recordings. 

The other spot I've got my eye on is Barnstable, which I've seen forecast to have uppers of 27C on Friday on some charts. That will also be sheltered behind Exmoor, so you'd think the North Sea influence would be seriously negated there. 

was that 2010?

[Paul]

Day 1 of the competition (Monday) saw 26.3c as the top temperature in Santon Downham (Suffolk). So, for now at least @clark3r leads with a guess of 30.3c. 

Long way to go though!

[Guest]

Realistically with even the Meto dropping their predicted maxes anything above 31C looks an outisde bet......

[Man With Beard]

Yes, the Met Office have "capitulated" and now are forecasting temperatures much more in line with model output. 25C tomorrow, 27C on Thursday; for a long time, they were going 33C/34C on these days, and even yesterday into the 30s.

My 39C now looks ... rather dodgy ...

 

[Roger J Smith]

Meanwhile, the highest temperatures today are in the 37-38 range in southern France and also in northeast Spain but the largest anomalies are further north near the crest of the 576 dm thickness in the Netherlands where one station was reporting 35 C. Also of note for UK forecasts, dew points have soared to low 20s in parts of central France. The modelling suggests that the heat approaching the UK will be a second push north as this first push subsides a little into Germany tomorrow. We'll just have to see whether the Netweather guru model has a surprise last minute win over the realist camp. The 06z GFS appears to be perhaps 1 dm lower in its thickness projections for Friday-Saturday but that's not much, all depends on how much sunshine gets through ... a good sign to me that temperatures have recovered reasonably well on the south coast today despite the morning cloud and remnant showers from the Channel storms. Hopefully skies will clear out considerably for Wednesday and get the ground heated a little for days to come. 

I also feel that the largely dry cold front scenario for Saturday is going to see changes closer to the time due to the moist conditions being encountered by this heat. 

[stewfox]

31.9 c Heathrow Saturday 4.11pm 

[matt111]

I'm not holding out much hope for my 37°C being anywhere near. 

[Don]

I'm glad my 37.7C for Gravesend is unlikely to come off now.  However, only narrowly escaped the monster plume!

[Stargazer]

I suspect my 34.4 is a little high but not too far off, and I should have preferred Saturday to Friday. The location is going to be interesting - right now I'm wondering if I should have gone for somewhere to the west such as Cheltenham or Pershore, but the hot spot could realistically still be in the southeast.

Edited June 25, 2019 by Stargazer

[DaveL]

13 hours ago, Alderc said:

Realistically with even the Meto dropping their predicted maxes anything above 31C looks an outisde bet......

I *almost* posted a forecast of 29.9, for Saturday but backed out at the last minute with a 30.6. Am currently wishing I'd gone for that 29.9!

[Aleman]

Are we starting a "How cold will it go ?" competition for next week? I looks like Scotland might get a July frost in one of the usual spots Tuesday night, helped by some fairly mediocre sea surface temperatures - 10.6C at Aberdeen, Peterhead and Orkney. (Bear in mind it was 2.6C at Tulloch Bridge last night (237m) and 3.1C at Altnaharrah (81m).)

Edited June 26, 2019 by Aleman

[Man With Beard]

I think we are off and running in my area of the south coast. Clouds have cleared earlier than forecast. Temperatures are rocketing. If we keep full sun, I think 27C will be the very least to expect, maybe more. 

For tomorrow, I note an interesting area on the models - while most of the UK is under a North Sea source, the very far SW gets the continental source down to 950hpa levels. This changes the potential for N Cornwall which, sheltered by Bodmin Moor, gets its own heat zone, currently modelled at 26/27C max but I wonder if spots might see 30C.

Now if this area of partial continental influence could extend 50 or so miles east (and why not?!), that could bring Barnstable into play. Longer land track than N Cornwall would have, more hills to pass over - that would be my gamblers tip for something special (say, 32C) tomorrow *if* the adjustment can be made in the modelling. 20% chance I'd say. But small margins! 

 

[Mapantz]

42 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think we are off and running in my area of the south coast. Clouds have cleared earlier than forecast. Temperatures are rocketing. If we keep full sun, I think 27C will be the very least to expect, maybe more. 

Yep. Sun has been poking through here over the last hour and temps up to 21.1°C. I agree, 26 or 27°C possible later on. I got my max temp of 24.1°C  at 18:15 yesterday.

[Snowyowl9]

We have an inversion in the height of summer crazy stuff.

Much cooler today 13.5c only yet down to 8 or 9c tonight with uppers way above that.

 

 

Edited June 26, 2019 by Snowyowl9

[Paul]

Yesterday's top temp was in Herstmonceux at 26.4c, so a slight improvement on Monday's top but still not troubling anyone but @clark3r on the table, who keeps the lead.

[weirpig]

1 hour ago, Snowyowl9 said:

We have an inversion in the height of summer crazy stuff.

Much cooler today 13.5c only yet down to 8 or 9c tonight with uppers way above that.

 

 

Indeed  Cool temps today  however they are rising   currently on my weather station