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Possibly severe heat wave looming for 25th to 29th June, also some local severe storms


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8 hours ago, 4wd said:

It's like this thread is on another planet, despite a sunny afternoon it only reached 11.8C here and is now down to 8C it almost feels like a ground frost risk
We may get above 20C on Saturday - one day only.

7C here, when you think this time last week, we were thinking about very uncomfortable nights ahead for this week. 

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Can anyone think of a potential hot spell that has been so downgraded ? The Met Office were really taking note of possibilities because they released a youtube video addressing their concerns for this

Not much chance of high temperatures this week now,only Saturday. Extremely wet now seriously wet after this morning, wettest month in living memory at 231mm smashed the previous record of july 2

So for the record, Heathrow and Northolt reported 34.0 C on Saturday 29th. The 576 dm thickness contour passed through parts of East Anglia on its way to its current location in central Europe. In Fra

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Can anyone think of a potential hot spell that has been so downgraded ? The Met Office were really taking note of possibilities because they released a youtube video addressing their concerns for this week last Friday, so there was no ramping of this. 
Everything has been so downgraded, the length of the hot spell, the thunderstorm possibilities. 

Edited by Weather-history
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22 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Can anyone think of a potential hot spell that has been so downgraded ? The Met Office were really taking note of possibilities because they released a youtube video addressing their concerns for this week last Friday, so there was no ramping of this. 
Everything has been so downgraded, the length of the hot spell, the thunderstorm possibilities. 

Currently sat in shorts - what a mistake!

Computer model output is showing only 18c here today, yet the meto text says 26c!! ?

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GFS clearly underestimates maxima by quite a big margin a few days in advance. Maxima underestimated by 5C-8C in  Southern and Western areas. 27C in Pembrey sands appears to be in the top spot although a few other stations may have got a tad higher.

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Some western and southern areas to pass 30C tomorrow?

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Would prefer a cooler wind however today is near perfect for me in Leeds. 

21C and cloudless skies.

Sadly this does suggest the GFS will undershoot tomorrow and Saturday.

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Today's report sounds a bit like a broken record, 599 dm high over France, 582 dm thickness in some areas, with the 576 dm thickness contour reaching 50N on the 12z (CMC) analysis. 570 dm was about halfway through Ireland which is currently getting a bit more of the warming effects of a gradually turning southeast flow. Hottest readings in France are once again south-central and noted 41 C at L'hospitalet with a 42 C in northeast Spain. 

In northern France, that pooling of high dew points has now spread quite close to the Channel. There are remarkable 24 and 25 C dew points at various locations across northern France although the average is low 20s. This produces humidex readings as high as 47 C in the Le Mans region. Having been exposed to this in Ontario (35 C temps, 24 C dp) I know how enervating that feels. Fortunately the women's football quarter final match involving England is at a somewhat cooler Le Havre (31/20) but it's still going to be dangerously oppressive there. 

None of this has really crossed the Channel yet, all we can say so far is that the regional easterly is slowly warming up and producing some mid 20s at favoured locations like the Welsh coast and north Somerset. I don't think this will have much effect on how Friday and Saturday play out when the easterly flow gets shut down by a developing south to southwest flow straight out of the hot land mass and across the much narrower Channel. 

 

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What gets me about the forecasted heatwave was how reluctant the forecasters were over back tracking on the heatwave when the models showed that it was very unlikely hit. I can understand people on here but not the pro's.

It's been one of the biggest climb downs since the failed beast from the east all those years ago. So we now know that hot can be downgraded as badly as cold.

 

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The 12z 500mb analysis shows that the 576 dm thickness contour had reached Bristol from where it ran southeast to about the Isle of Wight and offshore into northeast France. Many parts of France were under 582 dm thickness. The heat intensified there to reach all-time June record highs (44 to 45 in lower Rhone valley, still some 40 readings in central France, will edit in the exact numbers from later reports). 

The very high dew point phenomenon (some 24, 25) has continued with the zone now oriented from Normandy south-southeast into the central Loire valley and towards the east of Bordeaux. Some humidex values are as high as 47 C.

Although it has warmed up slightly in some western counties of England today, it appears that the one chance for anything truly hot will come tomorrow when the flow will be south then southwest. However, a fair amount of cloud has developed in the frontal zones and I'm wondering if this may translate into breeding grounds for severe storms, most likely areas would be Wales, Severn valley and western portions of Thames valley.

The contest median was 35 for Heathrow tomorrow, so after all the underachieving of this warm spell so far (in the UK) it would be ironic if that turned out accurate after all. No reason why it couldn't with the highest uppers over the southeast and the breeze not sourced from the North Sea any longer. 

(note: Shannon Ireland hit 28.4 on Thursday, some reports of similar temps west of Dublin today as the wind there became southerly). 

 

 

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Astonishing temps recorded in southern France .

All time record gone . 45.9 c recorded .

Beats the previous record of 44.1 c on August 12 2003 . Even more noteworthy as temps like this are very rare this early in the season so do to this in June is quite something .

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Astonishing temps recorded in southern France .

All time record gone . 45.9 c recorded .

Beats the previous record of 44.1 c on August 12 2003 . Even more noteworthy as temps like this are very rare this early in the season so do to this in June is quite something .

Was that not the area that had severe warnings for flooding a couple of weeks ago. Makes it all the more remarkable ...what could have been achieved if this occurred after the usual weeks of summer drought.

Edited by Gael_Force
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I thought this was a very unusual setup and GFS was correct in showing 45c a week ago in france.

So that's 23c hotter than we made today,when 30c looked possible for today a week ago with very high humidity,well it reality its dry air from the east.

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28c quite widely over parts of South Wales away from the immediate coast.

If it wasn't from the very stiff breeze off the sea, 30c would easily have been reached.

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12 hours ago, The PIT said:

What gets me about the forecasted heatwave was how reluctant the forecasters were over back tracking on the heatwave when the models showed that it was very unlikely hit. I can understand people on here but not the pro's.

It's been one of the biggest climb downs since the failed beast from the east all those years ago. So we now know that hot can be downgraded as badly as cold.

 

Since when has 28c in the UK (imby) NOT been classified as "heatwave territory"? It's currently (here) a heatwave. Prob would've easily reached 30-32c if stiff breeze was absent?

Edited by Bristle boy
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6 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Is one day at 28c anywhere a heatwave ??

From UK Met Office website:

A UK heatwave threshold is met when a location records a period of at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold.

So it's Day 2 here (imby); tomorrow's temps will be high enough for 3 consecutive days. I'm ahead of myself?

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I read elsewhere that Camborne had a new UK record 850 mb temp of 24.8 which shattered the previous 22.4 at Herstmonceux set 5 Aug 2003. (tweet from World Climate Service). (disclaimer -- unofficial)

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1 hour ago, Badgers01 said:

Is one day at 28c anywhere a heatwave ??

Not really but how often do the papers say heatwave UK when London and perhaps SE England get 30c and others get diddly squat.

Synoptically this has been a major event even if it is has not delivered what it could have done in other circumstances.

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1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

From UK Met Office website:

A UK heatwave threshold is met when a location records a period of at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold.

So it's Day 2 here (imby); tomorrow's temps will be high enough for 3 consecutive days. I'm ahead of myself?

Looking at the Weatheronline data, https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&UP=0&R=310&TYP=tmax&ART=tabelle&LANG=en&DATE=1561748400&KEY=UK&LAND=UK&CONT=ukuk&SORT=3&SI=mph&CEL=C&UD=0  over 15 sites might hit the Heatwave criteria tomorrow. (with 3 days over the threshold criteria), with many of these being in the West, this is probably unlikely but something to keep an eye on.

In addition to that some of the sites hitting 25c today included Aviemore, Capel Curig, Altnharra and Lossiemouth, something which does not happen every day.

Edited by J10
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