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Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion

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I have a small delivery of stuffs coming. Nothing rain related, so expect warm temperatures, showers and a downgrade of that thunderstorm warning.

🙄 

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Oooo, Convec. weather are considering putting forward a MDT risk zone! Now that's got me excited! Whenever there is A MDT risk zone is by them, It is usually very accurate, and a night-time channel light show nearly always unfolds...

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Interesting... Models all over the place and that is expected with a text book scenario like tomorrow night and Wednesday.. .

This are probably my most favorite setup of storms.. Because it never is a middle ground.. You either get some of the best storms in a long time.. OR a total bust..

If you take the NNM it really does show some of us having quite the show..a 2 round attack ... quite a rare event..the extreme end of the scale

514089728_NNM1.thumb.png.99b009ccc4ab157780a2a60c02c30550.png785137231_NNM2.thumb.png.746d1dbcc12f1b407d5874ffd5cb4466.png87688237_nnm3.thumb.png.741fce6aacc742499a3f39d5423d5686.png847090672_nnm4.thumb.png.449f3196ab06450dc7220a4563e07009.png

 

 

 

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EURO4 is on board.. That was my worry because its very good at convective weather.. 

 

However I'm still not convinced until we see the radar 

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Considering the risk it is dead here.

No hype. No posts. Nothing. 

Gloriously predicting a fail in beddy but the chase is always the best thing.

C'mon Netweather do ya thang.

  

Edited by Dami

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1 hour ago, Dami said:

Considering the risk it is dead here.

No hype. No posts. Nothing. 

Gloriously predicting a fail in beddy but the chase is always the best thing.

C'mon Netweather do ya thang.

  

I think moral has died out. 

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1 hour ago, Surrey said:

EURO4 is on board.. That was my worry because its very good at convective weather.. 

 

However I'm still not convinced until we see the radar 

Could you post the associated chart please? Hoping for something here...don’t think we’ve had a storm for around a year here now!

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A totally unscientific view from me but I just don't see any storms occurring in the next 48 hours. It just doesn't feel like it.

Hope I'm wrong mind. 

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Beauty of a sunset this evening! DSC03710.thumb.JPG.bf14052e3cfab290b730042ba9c5ef8d.JPG

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19 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

A totally unscientific view from me but I just don't see any storms occurring in the next 48 hours. It just doesn't feel like it.

Hope I'm wrong mind. 

you better  look at the  bbc news  its  not nice tuesday   night  wed

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Help guys and girls....we're Out on the boat on the Norfolk Broads, should we be panicking re tomorrow night/Wednesday? The idea of lightening, water and boats is a bit scary!

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50 minutes ago, tinybill said:

you better  look at the  bbc news  its  not nice tuesday   night  wed

That's the first time I've watched a BBC TV forecast in months.

'' Lots of uncertainty'' about tommorow/storms nights rain Mr Bett just said now. Lots off coulds and maybes. 

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1 hour ago, Darkcloud said:

Help guys and girls....we're Out on the boat on the Norfolk Broads, should we be panicking re tomorrow night/Wednesday? The idea of lightening, water and boats is a bit scary!

Storms in Norfolk? As if! 🤨 Seriously though I wouldn't worry over much - I've seen some epic storms whilst sailing/narrow boating including on the Broads (mind you that was when storms were a weekly occurrence in this part of the world during summer). Best advice would be keep an eye on the radar and follow the usual precautions when on the water. 

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First storm over Channel Islands nice and early this morning!

227B62DE-F6C0-4590-ACDE-5D31C30974C1.png

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Here's the latest thinking from Convective Weather about the thunderstorm risk today, published 20.50 on Mon 17th. Note the uncertainty expressed in the extracts from the 'Outlook' I've copied below - so worth checking back on their website. The full outlook is here: http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-18

"Firstly, the usual caveats apply to a destabilising plume event. There is an inherently increased level of uncertainty in these type of situations, moreso than most other synoptic events, and even at relatively short time frames. Therefore it is likely parts of this forecast will undoubtedly change from initial thoughts, and further updates / changes may be required."

"Lightning activity with this first round of activity on Tuesday daytime is uncertain, given somewhat limited instability and subtle forcing."

1667611812_ConvectiveWeather18Jun.thumb.jpg.2b3cc99df2df7abfc6bd171715c8007b.jpg

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Come on, SUSSEX! first real storm potential of the year today! Could get quite the channel light show later! Good job it came AFTER my exams, eh?

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7 hours ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Storms in Norfolk? As if! 🤨 Seriously though I wouldn't worry over much - I've seen some epic storms whilst sailing/narrow boating including on the Broads (mind you that was when storms were a weekly occurrence in this part of the world during summer). Best advice would be keep an eye on the radar and follow the usual precautions when on the water. 

Thanks Norfolk Sheep, had a quick look through bbc and mo and they seem to have removed the thunder risk for here completely! Frustrating I can't view the models though! Think we will head back for the night as have developed a leak over the bed!! Will have a go at fixing that and head out again tomorrow.

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For what it's worth, there is that atmosphere out there. It's not warm warm but it's muggy and still.

My favorite kind of weather.

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11 hours ago, John90 said:

Beauty of a sunset this evening! imageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eDSC03710.thumb.JPG.bf14052e3cfab290b730042ba9c5ef8d.JPG

Snap! 

sunset17thjune2019.JPG

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Sun's out now, temperature rapidly rising bodes well for the storms later

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Storms? 

 

PAAAAAAH! 

It's overcast here! 

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Storms normally divert around me, but hopeful for later very humid now even feels stormy

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been watching whats coming up from the south.

:(

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49 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Storms? 

 

PAAAAAAH! 

It's overcast here! 

You don’t need sun for storms....

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you don't but it helps.

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