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1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

This morning's BBC/MeteoGroup take on the incoming rainfall for Monday into Tuesday (which aligns closely with the Arpege chart I posted yesterday) showing the potential for up to 60mm of rain. Meanwhile GFS still not in agreement, placing the largest accumulations further north. Arpege unavailable on Meteociel this morning so I can't post the latest view from the French model.

BBC 716729889_Rain10-11Jun.thumb.jpg.edcbf6a5a1f46abca2081f80fe671445.jpg GFS 1087519688_GFSCumPrecip9-12Jun.thumb.GIF.a8ac5257e779a0c61a5b5d65ed32a1ff.GIF

Arpege goes to 100mm very locally by 9pm Tuesday

us_model-en-999-0_modfra_2019060900_69_20840_157.thumb.png.1fb3e4e99fc713a715265c999f6aae88.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Nice  and warm all beding  plants put  in  allĺ ready   for   the  monsoon on Monday onwards should wash them in nicely

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Heavy shower here very slow moving.. Tropical feel to things here quite bizarre... Calm winds but heavy rain.. Monsoon is now on radar moving north.. 

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Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t the definition of a monsoon a 100 days of torrential rainfall. 

Its not a monsoon, it’s a day of heavy rain. 

Hopefully things will dry out 2nd half of June and the British countryside will look very picturesque indeed. 

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1 minute ago, Ben Lewis said:

Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t the definition of a monsoon a 100 days of torrential rainfall. 

Its not a monsoon, it’s a day of heavy rain. 

Hopefully things will dry out 2nd half of June and the British countryside will look very picturesque indeed. 

I thought a monsoon was a seasonal wind-pattern?

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Pleasant out today dry bright and cool more like late April than June , nice for sitting out in the garden but got a jumper on ... 

01256D36-5E67-4393-ADA8-0E7206C9742D.jpeg

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No monsoon is a clothes shop i have never brought from.

Maybe some rain coming, maybe not.

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Big shifts overnight on rainfall totals.. but this is going to be watch the radar and try work it out... so much spread still 

Totals out to midday Tuesday ... Arome doesn't go that far.. 

EURO4                                                                             ARPEGE

19061112_0918.thumb.gif.e3a234b1ea4719c68fa04b0dfc508874.gif                          accprecip_20190609_18_042.thumb.jpg.2d3cb069e784618e648866ddaa431af5.jpg

AROME                                                                                 HIRLAM

accprecip_20190609_12_042.thumb.jpg.15c19c024e9918c31475fc52f169db5c.jpg                              714639567_accprecip_20190610_00_036(1).thumb.jpg.6bc6cac2bccc45ca5cd4894c1fc01f1a.jpg

GFS

364829225_accprecip_20190610_00_036(2).thumb.jpg.b319c409dc4971e13f30d74f9ef0b49a.jpg

accprecip_20190610_00_036.jpg

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3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Big shifts overnight on rainfall totals.. but this is going to be watch the radar and try work it out... so much spread still 

Totals out to midday Tuesday ... Arome doesn't go that far.. 

EURO4                                                                             ARPEGE

19061112_0918.thumb.gif.e3a234b1ea4719c68fa04b0dfc508874.gif                          accprecip_20190609_18_042.thumb.jpg.2d3cb069e784618e648866ddaa431af5.jpg

AROME                                                                                 HIRLAM

accprecip_20190609_12_042.thumb.jpg.15c19c024e9918c31475fc52f169db5c.jpg                              714639567_accprecip_20190610_00_036(1).thumb.jpg.6bc6cac2bccc45ca5cd4894c1fc01f1a.jpg

GFS

364829225_accprecip_20190610_00_036(2).thumb.jpg.b319c409dc4971e13f30d74f9ef0b49a.jpg

accprecip_20190610_00_036.jpg

Actually starting to get slightly concerned about these staggering rainfall totals. 

I cant say I’ve seen totals as close to that since April 1998, which saw devastating floods in Peterborough, Northampton and Bedford, as well as other places along the river Nene and Great Ouse. 

It looks like a very similar unfolding. A stagnant front with copious amounts of rain parked over one area for a couple of days. Not good. 

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I see the Met Office have issued an Amber Warning for a large area of the South East for this afternoon/evening

Following earlier rainfall some heavy, and perhaps thundery, showers are expected to develop over parts of southeast England this afternoon and into the evening. Whilst many areas will miss the highest rainfall totals from these some places could see 50-60 mm falling in the space of 4 to 6 hours. The showers will then gradually ease later this evening

Amber Warning

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4 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Surface water will be a major issue later today ?

Surprised at the big shift south of this system... 

EURO4 ties in with met office warning perfectly.. Interesting because this mornings 00z Arpege run picked up the southern shift only to go north again on the 06z.. 

Radar watching will be key... 

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It’s funny because I have never seen such high predictions at short range from the models before - it feels though they are a little overdone if it was showing these over the Lake District I would believe them and it would happen - here though it just feels not quite right 4 inches of rain today ....? Any way we will see and I guess the garden needs it !! 

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1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Actually starting to get slightly concerned about these staggering rainfall totals. 

I cant say I’ve seen totals as close to that since April 1998, which saw devastating floods in Peterborough, Northampton and Bedford, as well as other places along the river Nene and Great Ouse. 

It looks like a very similar unfolding. A stagnant front with copious amounts of rain parked over one area for a couple of days. Not good. 

I agree with you. For your area it does look concerning. Before I retired I worked for a consultant engaged by Cambridge County Council to deliver highway works. I was involved in quite a few projects mostly involving bridges but also works to Nene Quay at Wisbech. On one such occasion at Wisbech we had to cease work for a couple of days as the river was in flood & dead cattle were being swept along in the current, Another project was the provision of a cycle track & pedestrian bridge across the flood plain at St Neots. Flooding there is quite a sight when the river is in full flow.

Hopefully it will not be as bad this time.

Kind Regards

Dave

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Good luck you guys!

I recall Hebdens summer floods of 2012. One a 'parked front ( atmospheric river) & one a parked storm lasting over 4 hrs at peak rain rates.

On both occasions I'd only seen such rainfall in the core of storms and then only for tens mins or so? These events saw that rainfall rate over hours!

Do not drive into flood waters!!!

 

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2 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Actually starting to get slightly concerned about these staggering rainfall totals. 

I cant say I’ve seen totals as close to that since April 1998, which saw devastating floods in Peterborough, Northampton and Bedford, as well as other places along the river Nene and Great Ouse. 

It looks like a very similar unfolding. A stagnant front with copious amounts of rain parked over one area for a couple of days. Not good. 

Yes, remember that one. Good Friday 1998, the last time we had significant flooding here in Melton Mowbray. Defences have been beefed up since then so hopefully should be ok
 

 

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