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Blessed Weather

Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion

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4 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Looking good for some decent rainfall over the next 36 hours, but some variance amongst the high res models about exactly how much. GFS most bullish with over 20mm for parts of East Anglia and Hirlam the most pessimistic suggesting many in the Region will be lucky to see 10mm. Arpege, NMM and ICON going for the middle ground between the two extremes. With high pressure and sunnier, warmer weather set to return next week, some rain for gardens and crops would be great and give a welcomed boost to plant growth. Accumulative rainfall charts up to midnight Weds 8th:

GFS 913828042_AccumRainWed08AprilGFS.thumb.png.d2c13886ae597ba1a104ae66165f740a.png Hirlam 1225794298_AccumRainWed08AprilHirlam.thumb.png.a301417e8361364acdeee116392f7b3d.png

Source: Meteociel. High res model selection on left of screen: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

Hopefully this is a pretty accurate prediction from GFS. We could do with several wet episodes like this, not sure if one or two wet days will be sufficient. We need several weeks of sustained rainfall. 

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Posted (edited)

A wet start here with light rain. The radar image shows the light rain on the first occluded front that's currently coming through the Region, but there's much brighter echoes from the second front following behind, so hopefully more intense rainfall. And then this afternoon as the fronts clear some unstable air coming through with the potential for heavy, thundery showers if we can get some sunny spells and surface heating.

Radar 07.00 with second front highlighted: 823889956_Radar07.0008May.thumb.jpg.721e29b7a973315534a28c86e26677ea.jpg

Overnight Fax Chart with second front highlighted: 43238057_FaxChart00.0008May.thumb.gif.be328b38d25724c47025de05756d21b4.gif

The Convective Weather website narrative for today:

"Frontal rain will migrate northwards across the British Isles on Wednesday morning, with a clearance then developing across southern areas coinciding with peak daytime heating. Cold air aloft combined with surface heating will generate 300-600 J/kg CAPE within an environment with notably steep mid-level lapse rates. Scattered showers are expected to develop, initially over southern England on Wednesday morning, the risk then extending northeastwards across parts of the Midlands and East Anglia into the afternoon. A few thunderstorms will be possible, particularly focussed where low-level convergence is maximised (especially in a zone from SW England across the M4 towards East Anglia, bounded by the SLGT area). Shear is somewhat limited given similar wind speeds / direction through depth. Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter is possible from the most intense cells."

721644838_ConvectiveRisk08May.thumb.jpg.22e15bd4424c9bd80f0453667d9755ad.jpg

Source: http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-05-08

NMM model supports the availability of 'convective available potential energy' (CAPE) or instability, so for those of us who like a storm, we just need to see if the sunny spells later provide the required 'lift' to trigger some action.

NMM 15.00 1939109630_ConvectiveSBCAPE08May15.00NMM.thumb.png.942b4cf1c8842b039e0a0474b96b6de6.png

 

Edited by Blessed Weather

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Could be a good day for thunderstorms today! 

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Rain wonderful rain here, lots of it, just what I have been waiting for. A bit more of this and then Summer can commence,:yahoo:

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Great deluge here in the capital now, hopefully last a while. The ground and vegetation certainly needs it. Looking at the met office outlook it looks like after next week's brief dry spell there may be plenty more of this. 😀 

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Tried to dodge the heavy rain showers for the dog walk... which was an epic fail! I estimated we had 20 minutes judging by the radar, but those downpours are very fast-moving and soaked us long before we headed home. Ah well, the dog needed a bit of a wash anyway.

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Posted (edited)

14mm of rain here this morning. Just need a good thunderstorm this afternoon to add to that. :oldsmile:

Looking promising. Plenty of lightning starting to show up to our West and heading into the Region.

13.05 1727289388_Radar13.0508May.thumb.png.c4c9c7ec27099d7d6d2e2ba3c4908cd5.png 13.20 1990593150_Radar13.2008May.thumb.jpg.94b7b821c44d2eece9a84d3b60c2350e.jpg

Edited by Blessed Weather
13.20 radar added

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Posted (edited)

Lightning overhead!!!

Edit - and again - 4th in the last hour.

Edit...make that 5!😱

8 in total, direct hit it seems!

Edited by Team Squirrel

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Afternoon all, it's May and I'm semi-out of hibernation (although this week has been a struggle!) Still cloudy with on and off drizzle and a cold wind. Meh. 

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One hell of a storm overhead here in cambridge. Copious rainfall, plenty of lightning strikes too. Wasn't expecting anything this big today!!!

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Looks fairly localised at the moment...check the sferics out!

lightning.thumb.jpg.310756909702427d5558b08448d36d1b.jpg

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Thunder, thunder, thunder in Potters Bar.

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Powerful little storm here now, good hail accumulation, pushing through the area quite fast, not much rumbling and lightning but certainly making itself felt! Pics to follow

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Thunder in Halesworth, lightening couple of miles away :yahoo: dog a jelly mess 😪

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Storm passed, some pics before and after.

DSC02883KAndersonCopyright2019.JPG

DSC02886KAndersonCopyright2019.JPG

DSC02897KAndersonCopyright2019.JPG

DSC02904KAndersonCopyright2019.JPG

DSC02905KAndersonCopyright2019.JPG

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13.2mm of rain here from midnight until the rain stopped around 12:30pm. Sunny this afternoon but increasingly windy 

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We're around the 12-13 mm mark here - no storms as yet but more showers on the way.  Nothing like enough given the shortage of rain now extends beyond 18 months, but useful for farmers and those of us with gardens that needed it.

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2 hours ago, lottiekent said:

13.2mm of rain here from midnight until the rain stopped around 12:30pm. Sunny this afternoon but increasingly windy 

Missed out on this afternoons showers here too, they were so close I could see the big clouds just north of the Thames Estuary.

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1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

We're around the 12-13 mm mark here - no storms as yet but more showers on the way.  Nothing like enough given the shortage of rain now extends beyond 18 months, but useful for farmers and those of us with gardens that needed it.

Yes need more rain, just the topsoil in the garden is wet thats about 1/2 inch, bone try underneath. 

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Posted (edited)

Guess I hit the jackpot today as my 14mm from the frontal rain this morning has now reached 21mm (nearly an inch) from the heavy showers this pm. A couple of real crackers - literally - as fast moving showers with hail, thunder and lightning went through. And I'm still under the line of showers this evening.

21.35 1335808521_Radar21.3508May.thumb.jpg.3015b2b646aaa34f24684ce29682e4e6.jpg

And here's a record of the day's lightning activity - a good day for some in our Region, if of course you like some sferics. :oldsmile:

Lightning strikes last 24 hours to 21.45 8th May 1697843412_Lightning24hoursWed08May21_45.thumb.jpg.c9472ddfe3a4330b59978826580a8443.jpg

Edit: Convective Weather reporting that there were over 1,300 strikes across the UK on Weds 8th.

Edited by Blessed Weather
Number of strikes added.

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Come on, Sussex! We need some storm action too! Absolutely cannot wait to hear our first crack of thunder, coupled with our first blinding flash of lightning! (especially after last year's (bar the unreal 26th May event) thunderstorm deficit!)

How is everyone today? Have you had a good week so far...?

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20 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Come on, Sussex! We need some storm action too! Absolutely cannot wait to hear our first crack of thunder, coupled with our first blinding flash of lightning! (especially after last year's (bar the unreal 26th May event) thunderstorm deficit!)

How is everyone today? Have you had a good week so far...?

You're certainly in with a chance today. Good luck. :oldsmile:

2104465854_ConvectiveRisk09May.thumb.jpg.fdfc09c6a9ec11f02cccec12dde5bb53.jpg

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-05-09

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Heavy showers just started here.😀

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Some good beefy showers running through now. Nice top up of rain after yesterday's 13mm. No thunder and lightning yet but the much needed rain will do for now. 

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