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Blessed Weather

Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion

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Morning all

I always said summer 2019 will be one that drags its heals in leaving... and so far I've been correct.. Although the blip start of August but that was actually in line with my overall summer forecast if September is above average temperature wise and below average rainfall I think we are in for a wet stormy season right through winter.. 

What I want to know moving forward is how two pretty hot summers on a trot will affect our autumn and winter. I'm still convinced of an above average winter temperature wise and precipitation wise as our sub tropical climate begins to become more apparent thanks to global warming and climate change.. (just my theory) 

Interesting to note that SSTs are above average right now which will have an impact on our weather moving into the colder months. 

 

 

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On 27/08/2019 at 23:10, SenlacJack said:

I was also a bit surprised by Daniels report of 22c max's on the coast in East Sussex in the last few days. Iv'e been out and about along the coast from Seaford to Rye Harbour in the last few days and the lowest max I encountered during that time was 24c in Eastbourne.

I was down at Rye Harbour this afternoon and recorded 30.4c on an admittedly cheap device.  Car thermometer was reading 30c so not too far off the mark.

 

 

 

 

Just seen this,sorry for a belated response.

Wind directions played a huge part in those varying temperatures.

The flow,certainly on Monday and Tuesday allowed for marked coastal variations in temperature,certainly on the Sussex coast.

East,With a SE mix in there.

Now given the curvature of the coastline this flow meant that some parts recieve more of a sea effect on those temperatures than others,more of an East mix and temperatures shot up,hence Daniel's report and a few miles up the road a 22c versus 27c.

Saltdean on Tuesday hovered around 27c 1 mile inland of the beach and was 24c right on the seafront,however at 5pm the wind backed a little more into the East and 30c was achieved briefly here with 27c near the beach.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Surrey said:

Although the blip start of August

What 'blip' start to August?...here on the Essex coast for the first 9 days it was warm/very warm with hardly any traceable rainfall, the summer on the whole certainly since late June has been better than average with some unsettled/windy days thrown in.

Edited by Froze were the Days

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5 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

What 'blip' start to August?...here on the Essex coast for the first 9 days it was warm/very warm with hardly any traceable rainfall, the summer on the whole certainly since late June has been better than average with some unsettled/windy days thrown in.

Start of August was certainly not the summer we had last year.. But we did recover and are enjoying perfect late summer days.. Looks like it is set to continue... 

 

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Posted (edited)

Yes according to member Blessed Weather the first week or so of 2018 was very warm/hot (which had forgotten about) so really comparing like to like is hardly a 'blip' that period this year was still on the warm side! 🙂 with the warmth continuing unlike last August.

Another warm sunny day here to add to the numerous we've had just a blip mid-month - max 24.1c.

Edited by Froze were the Days

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On 29/08/2019 at 12:52, shotski said:

An interesting read. I knew that air conditioning uses a ridiculous amount power to run in warmer countries but didn’t know that it had such a negative impact on the environment. Definitely needs to be a solution found, as modern life in countries that rely on it won’t be pleasant without it. Here in much of Europe, it’s not such an issue and I’ve never found it remotely necessary at home. But working in an office at 35C can’t be nice or productive. 

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Posted (edited)

Morning all,

relaxing with a cuppa and a recording of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast, Darren Bett still on shift. For those Members who don't want to read my prolonged commentary, here is a video clip of Darren's Forecast:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49529994

Darren began his Forecast by stating that over the next Week or so, we will see winds fluctuating between N.W. and S.W., with everything coming at us from the Atlantic, meaning it will remain very unsettled. This denotes quite a departure, from the last few Day's extended Forecasts. These suggested that the first week of September would be dominated by High Pressure, resulting in dry, sunny and warm Weather.

Today, sees a Cold Front tracking S.E. across the Country with associated rain, fragmenting as it reaches our Region, around mid-late Afternoon. This will clear away the last of the remaining warmth (for a while), Max.Temps., around 23c/24c for the London area. This Cold Front, as it passes, will introduce a much cooler Polar Maritime, N.W. flow, in time for the first Day of Meteorological Autumn. Tomorrow, for our Region, will see perhaps a few showers make it down to the S.E., more so to the North of London.  Max.Temps. for London may "sneak" up to 20c. Overnight, as a temporary ridge of High Pressure builds over our Region, with skies clearing  and Min. Temps dropping away to a significantly cooler 9c, for London.

So, a cool start to the new working Week but as the flow starts to turn back into the S.W., Max.Temps for the London area should pick up to around 22c. The Weather should remain dry and sunny, for the S.E. Tuesday sees a quite brisk W.S.W. flow, for our Region with cloud beginning to increase, as a Cold Front starts to approach from the W. But dry for our Region, during daylight hours with a Max.Temp. of around 22c for London. Perhaps a little rain overnight, for the S.E.. More appreciable rain likely to move through our Region, early on Wednesday, as a second Cold Front moves through. Likely to remain dry, after the passage of the Cold Front, with Max.Temps a little cooler again at around 20c, for the London area, as we turn back into more of a W.N.W. flow. 

Darren then turned his attention to Hurricane DORIAN, Forecast Models still have this feature tracking towards Florida but as it's "slowing down", it will have less impact on our Weather further ahead. This translates to more confidence, in the Outlook period. A deep area of Low Pressure moving out of N.E.Canada, will help to intensify an area of High Pressure sitting to the S.W., of the U.K.

This is likely to mean Fronts (and showers, or longer spells of rain), associated with an area of Low Pressure, will track S.E. down  across the U.K., around the the top of that High Pressure, as we move into the latter part of the Week/Weekend. This will likely keep the Weather cool and unsettled, for our Region., as the flow will have turned into the N.W. or N. by this time.

Darren ended his Forecast by stating that there will be some warmer air heading up to Iceland and eventually we may tap into that but still on the cool side.

That's my interpretation of MeteoGroup's latest extended Forecast for our Region, seen through the eyes of Darren Bett.

So, quite a change from extended Forecasts of a few days ago, as we head into my Birthday Weekend!! 

Regards,

Tom.  :hi: 

 

Edited by TomSE12

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Lovely skies this morning as the incoming cold front heads towards us, and a great satellite image from above. Arpege cumulative precip chart for today shows negligible rainfall expected as the front narrows and fizzles out as it moves SE through this afternoon into the evening.

146093212_CloudSat31Aug.thumb.jpg.bb954b995f3c12d8145e5a6ad63952db.jpg1499242278_Satellite31Aug08_35.thumb.jpg.6e97ec84d78294f53fefd29170d808cc.jpg1308670862_ArpegeCumPrecipSat31Aug.thumb.png.c3eb0d3a233ab3c997c5ae8ec9fdda44.png

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lovely last day of summer vibe this afternoon warm sunshine gave way to a sharp shower then a cool clearance temp a refreshing 15.8c !

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Posted (edited)

Last day of meteorological summer...and has finished how it left off on June 1st (warm and quite humid) 24.6c max today. It has been a bit of an irregular summer for some particularly in central and northern parts but in this neck of the woods generally has been better than average since last week of June, about as bone dry as it's been all summer.

Roll on Autumn, require a quick cool down of the continent please.

Edited by Froze were the Days

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The day started off with lovely skies and now the cold front has cleared through - with no more than a disappointing couple of raindrops here - it's a wonderful sunset.

1072888396_SunsetSat31Aug.thumb.jpg.47f6ce5394dbd26610206e38bad5c154.jpg

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Back to Prague this evening for a couple of days, felt much cooler/fresher in London upon departure. In Prague, the warmth is clinging on with 24C at midnight but thunderstorms forecast for tomorrow (exciting) before a significant cool down on Monday. Nice views of Staines and Heathrow on ascent.

B1104448-D3D1-4DAE-8E00-F709576B9576.jpeg

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I'm going to lock this thread in a moment - PLEASE HOLD BACK FROM POSTING FOR A FEW MINS whilst I open a new thread. Thks.

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Morning all,

Up early again to take my medication.

Now relaxing with a cuppa but was frustrated to find a "failed to record" messge against MeteoGroup's, early Morning Forecast.

But thankfully it's already available on iPlayer. Here is the BBC link to the Forecast, with Nick Miller:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49535832

Nick began his Forecast stating that last Sunday we reached 33c, in our Region. Today, we'll only likely reach 21c in the S.E., as we commence 3 Months of Meteorological Autumn.

So, "what a difference a Week makes, 168 little hours".

Today, sees our Region join the the rest of the U.K., in a cool and fresh Polar Maritime N.W. flow. On the plus side, it should stay dry, with long sunny spells. So, "pinch but not too much punch". Overnight, quite a "punch" to those Min. Temps., down to around 8c for the London area.

The new working Week begins dry for the S.E., with some cloud about, interspersed with sunny spells and with Max.Temps., recovering to 22c for the London area. Tuesday, sees more cloud around with a couple of Fronts approaching the S,E but as we are close to an area of High Pressure, our Region should stay largely dry with Max.Temps up to around 23c, for the London area.

After recovering somewhat, Max.Temps will dip again as we head into Wednesday behind a passage of a Cold Front and the day's Weather looks like being a repeat of today's Weather, it should stay dry with a decent amount of sunshine, Max.Temps. a bit on the cool side at 20c with a coolish N.W. breeze.  On Thursday a ridge attempts to build across the S.E., from a large area of High Pressure situated out to the S.W. of the U.K., meaning the Weather is likely to be settled with spells of sunshine and a Max.Temp of 21c, for the London area.

Friday, sees High Pressure poised to move in for the Weekend but not before we've experienced a rather cool day, as a N.W/N. flow extends across our Region, on the Eastern flank of this High but it should remain dry with sunny spells and a Max.Temp. probably around 20c, for the London area. 

Nick ended his Forecast by mentioning Hurricane DORIAN, on the other side of the Atlantic. Latest Model runs now take this feature up the Eastern side of the U.S.A. and away from Florida. As it curves out into the Atlantic, and the remnants of this feature it look to get caught up in the Jet Stream and by Monday next Week, could be close to the U.K. The exact position and likely impacts on the U.K., are a long way off in determining though!!

That's my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast for our Region, seen through the eyes of Nick Miller.

It still looks to be a very pleasant spell of Weather then for our Region, as we head through the first Week of September.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi: 

 

 

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