Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I think the lunchtime local forecast, being pre-videoed, shows the limitations of forecasts based on models that are out-of-date by the time of broadcast.  It was obvious even to a rank amateur like methat the frontal rain wouldn't have cleared here by 4 p.m. which is when the graphics suggested.

 

Anyway, up to 4.06 mm at UEA, and it's still raining here, around 4 miles south of there.

Edited June 12, 2019 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just looking at sat 24, the low looks to be more elongated over N France, which could possibly be the answer as to why the main dynamic rainfall appears to be much further south. It’s had less of a shunt north as to what was previously shown on the models and the met office forecast. 

Convective weather has stated that convective rainfall is likely to happen after midnight anyway, as a result of possible imported mid level convectiveness from NE France / Low Countries. Thundery rain looks to be the most likely scenario if we do manage anything. 

Edited June 12, 2019 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

4.83 mm and still moderate rain - 1.07 mm more for the East Anglian June average.

EDIT: 5.08 mm - 0.82 mm to go.

Edited June 12, 2019 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Interesting that the rain has now left the south coast.. I wonder if now we will see some thunderstorms break out... 

I'm also watching the area west of London between Reading and London for what most models pick out is some very slow moving torrential rain. Hard to say if its thunderstorms or just dynamic rainfall 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Only convective ppn. on radar at present seems to be in NW Kent.

[LightningLover]

Perhaps the lifting of the front will encourage some (rather weak) WAA?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5.84 mm - 0.08 mm to go for the monthly E. Anglian average.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

6.1 mm - we've passed average for the month!  Could do with some drier, warmer weather for a few days.

Edited June 12, 2019 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Tom Quintavalle]

Lots of standing water, here in S.E.London, from this Afternoon's persistent rain. 

Sferics over N.E.France need watching. these could clip into the extreme S.E.of our Region:  

https://en.meteox.com/en-gb?fc=0&lightning=1

Regards,

Tom.   

Edited June 12, 2019 by TomSE12

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

39 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Interesting that the rain has now left the south coast.. I wonder if now we will see some thunderstorms break out... 

I'm also watching the area west of London between Reading and London for what most models pick out is some very slow moving torrential rain. Hard to say if its thunderstorms or just dynamic rainfall 

I’m a bit worried it’s too cold at lower levels now due to the excessive rain that’s fallen. Saying that a nice line of cloud/rain moving up from France towards Kent, what will that do when it touches land I wonder?  

[Azores Hi]

Sun coming out in Ashford. Angry looking towers to my east. Let’s see...

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7.11 mm and still drizzling.

Edited June 12, 2019 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Make that 7.87 mm.  Radar shows us on the periphery of the rain, yet it doesn't seem to be clearing.

[LightningLover]

A shower is forming quite near me...

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Radar shows that it should have stopped raining, yet it's still coming down.  UEA weather station has shot up to 13.46 mm now, which feels like an over-estimate, though a nearby station shows 12.7 mm, so perhaps realistic.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, LightningLover said:

A shower is forming quite near me...

I think you’re best placed for anything electrical, energy will be on the wane quite soon, but from what I’ve read there’s still some warm, moist air about - so if it can make it as far as the Surrey border I know a great local spot to watch from

[LightningLover]

We also have some elevated t-storm potential tonight...

[Man With Beard]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

some places now must be approaching 10mm.. under the very heavy stuff 

We managed 16mm in 40 minutes here

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

We also have some elevated t-storm potential tonight...

I was thinking of staying up late and keeping an eye out

[Emz by the Thames]

Meanwhile at the allotment...everything's going a bit yellow which means it's too boggy. Potatoes are loving it though. But we really need some sun now.

[suffolkboy_]

22 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Radar shows that it should have stopped raining, yet it's still coming down.  UEA weather station has shot up to 13.46 mm now, which feels like an over-estimate, though a nearby station shows 12.7 mm, so perhaps realistic.

Drove home from Norwich about an hour ago. The amount of standing water and the heavyness of the rain between Long Stratton and Diss, I wouldn't be surprised if some stations did record that, or more.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looks like things are sparking around the south coast.. Like soup outside 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Looks like things are sparking around the south coast.. Like soup outside 

Looks like sea breeze convergence

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

23 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

Drove home from Norwich about an hour ago. The amount of standing water and the heavyness of the rain between Long Stratton and Diss, I wouldn't be surprised if some stations did record that, or more.

14.48 seems to be the final figure for the day.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

18 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Looks like sea breeze convergence

 

That a convergence zone on sat out into the North Sea?! Never seen that before