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July 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests


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Monthly Three players got it spot on this month. DiagonalRedLine, Leo97t and Quicksilver1989, with a further three players 0.1c out, B87, EdStone and seaside60. Seasonal Very close bet

The EWP came in provisionally at 72 mm.  Based on that, the top scores for July were score _ fcst __ forecaster 10.0 __ 72.0 __ Jeff C  9.8 ___73.0 __ Let It Snow!  9.6 ___71.

July confirmed as 17.5c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

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2 hours ago, Don said:

I was only 0.3C out but have generally had a poor year.

Same here, although think i would be fairly high without an absolutely disastrous February, went below average and it was 3.0 above average - always going to be a mountain to climb to get anywhere near winning it after that.

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

0.1C too low, for me!:oldgood:

Very decent though, very decent for me as well, just disappointing that with a normal correction i would have won it and that i was doing poorly before that, i would guess a 0.2 +/- guess every single month would put you very close to winning the annual outright.

 

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Got it spot on! ??

well done.

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Same here, although think i would be fairly high without an absolutely disastrous February, went below average and it was 3.0 above average - always going to be a mountain to climb to get anywhere near winning it after that.

You are not alone, in having a disastrous Feb, feb!?

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Monthly
Three players got it spot on this month. DiagonalRedLine, Leo97t and Quicksilver1989, with a further three players 0.1c out, B87, EdStone and seaside60.

image.thumb.png.ea871b8ea748760fa34f50197b156f47.png

Seasonal
Very close between the top 2, Quicksilver1989 and DiagonalRedLine who both got it spot on this month. B87 is not that far behind in 3rd.

image.thumb.png.842a46b38768d12728836645fdaad47f.png

Overall
No change in the Top 3 so it remains Quicksilver1989, BornFromtheVoid and StationeryFront as the Top 3.

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Spreadsheet

July 19 CET.xlsx

Edited by J10
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REPORT ON CONSENSUS and NORMALS SCORING for JULY

 

Dec 2018 _____________________________ Jan 2019 _____________________ Feb 2019 __________

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points ____ FCST __ error__ rank _ points _____ FCST __ error __ rank __ points

Consensus_ 5.0 __ -1.9 _ 32 to 32 _ 52.3 _____3.5 ___ -0.5 __16 to 18 _ 75.7 to 78.6 _ 4.0 __ -2.7 _ 33 to 37 _ 48.3 to 54.1

1989-2018*_4.9 __ -2.0 _ 33 to 33 _ 50.8 _____4.7 ___ +0.7 __21 to 23 _ 68.6 to 71.4 _ 4.9 __ -1.8 _ 14 to 14 _ 81.3

1981-2010__4.6 __ -2.3 _ 42 to 44 _ 33.8 to 36.9 _4.4 _ +0.4 __14 to 15 _ 80.0 to 81.4 _ 4.4 __ -2.3 _ 17 to 19 _ 74.2 to 77.0

 

March 2019 _____________________________ April 2019 _____________________ May 2019

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points _____FCST_error _ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank __ points

 consensus _ 6.9 _ --0.9 _ 29 to 33 _ 48.4 to 54.8 _8.4 _ --0.7 _ 24 to 28 _ 55.9 to 62.3 _ 12.3 _ +1.2 _ 28 to 31 _ 50.0-55.0

1989-2018 _ 6.8 __ --1.0 _ 34 to 35 _ 46.2 to 47.8 _8.8 _ --0.3 _ 9 to 13 _ 80.3 to 86.9 __ 12.0 _ +0.9 _ 17 to 20 _ 68.3 to 73.3

1981-2010 _ 6.6 __ --1.2 _ 39 to 39 _ 39.7 ______8.5 _ --0.6 _ 20 to 23 _ 63.9 to 68.6 __ 11.7 _ +0.6 _ 11 to 11 _ 83.3

 

June 2019 __________________________________ July 2019 ______________________ Average (8 months)

____FORECAST __ error __ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank _ points ________ abs err __ rank ___ points

consensus _ 15.0 _ +0.8 _ 27 to 31 _ 48.1 to 55.0 __ 17.0 _ -0.5 _ 19-24 __ 62.9 to 71.0 ____1.15 __ 26 to 30 __ 55.1 to 60.5

1989-2018 _ 14.6 _ +0.4 _ 11 to 15 _ 75.8 to 82.7 __ 16.9 _ -0.6 _ 25-30 __ 53.2 to 61.3 ____0.96 __ 20 to 23 __ 65.6 to 69.5

1981-2010 _ 14.5 _ +0.3 __ 6 to 10 _ 84.4 to 91.3 __ 16.7 _ -0.8 _ 34-39 __ 38.7 to 46.8 ____1.06 __ 23 to 26 __ 61.2 to 65.1

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Consensus was a little better in July than the two normals but this leaves the contest year average score significantly lower for consensus than either normal, with the most recent period of 1989-2018 still faring better than 1981-2010 and this gap was increased in July. 

================================================================

From the table of entries, these are the top scoring forecasts:  

 

Fcst ___ err __ Forecaster (order of entry)

17.5 ___ 0.0 __ Diagonal Red Line (11)

17.5 ___ 0.0 __ Leo97t (17)

17.5 ___ 0.0 __  Quicksilver1989 (46)

17.4 ___-0.1 __ B87 

17.4 ___-0.1 __ Ed Stone (35) 

17.4 ___-0.1 __ seaside60 (L2-1) __ may drop 1-2 ranks due late penalty

17.3 ___-0.2 __ dancerwithwings (20)

17.7 ___+0.2__ Feb1991blizzard (42)

17.3 ___-0.2 __ daniel* (51)

DRL had 70 mm and Ed Stone 74 mm, one of these is likely to be best combined ranking (EWP was 70 mm after 30 days, looks to add 3-4 on 31st). 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Just a quick question on here, the people usually near the top of the annual contest seem to be either climate scientists or regular contributors to the climate thread, like @BornFromTheVoid @Quicksilver1989,  Do you have a specialised strategy based on your knowledge, maybe based on your projections of AGW?, obviously don't expect you to tell me what it is of course!,  always seems to me that you do better than just regular meteorologists, do you use the models at all, even for just the first week of the month?

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July 2019 shows that with a phenomenal five day hot spell (which also included the warmest CET day on record), the month's overall mean CET actually didn't end up exceptionally warm; certainly nowhere near July 2006 or 1983, or 2018.

Last month was more of a case of where an otherwise average month for temperatures brought a notable extreme five day hot spell - the overall mean CET for the month was 17.5, but the period from the 22nd to 26th had a CET of 22.5.  If you take out this five day spell, the rest of July 2019 saw a CET of 16.5.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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46 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just a quick question on here, the people usually near the top of the annual contest seem to be either climate scientists or regular contributors to the climate thread, like @BornFromTheVoid @Quicksilver1989,  Do you have a specialised strategy based on your knowledge, maybe based on your projections of AGW?, obviously don't expect you to tell me what it is of course!,  always seems to me that you do better than just regular meteorologists, do you use the models at all, even for just the first week of the month?

I do a CET estimate for the first 10 days of the month. Aside from that I just base it on things like the CET anomalies from previous months and in winter things like ENSO and SSWs.

I've just been very lucky TBH, my February guess was way out, I only guessed 4.5C lol. I do often go for warmer temperatures because that is more likely but every now and then a colder month may come along. May wasn't too bad because the opening of that month was colder then average.

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I do a CET estimate for the first 10 days of the month. Aside from that I just base it on things like the CET anomalies from previous months and in winter things like ENSO and SSWs.

I've just been very lucky TBH, my February guess was way out, I only guessed 4.5C lol. I do often go for warmer temperatures because that is more likely but every now and then a colder month may come along. May wasn't too bad because the opening of that month was colder then average.

Yes i go on things like that in winter, i suppose i am not used to summer forecasting, only first time i have tried this competition the whole way through the year so wouldn't really know what to look for although did get the pattern really well for july, always thought a severely hot spell would  occur just because it was threatening to before that and just got a lucky guess with the timing just before months end. SSW didn't serve us well wrt a forecasting tool in Feb this time.

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9 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just a quick question on here, the people usually near the top of the annual contest seem to be either climate scientists or regular contributors to the climate thread, like @BornFromTheVoid @Quicksilver1989,  Do you have a specialised strategy based on your knowledge, maybe based on your projections of AGW?, obviously don't expect you to tell me what it is of course!,  always seems to me that you do better than just regular meteorologists, do you use the models at all, even for just the first week of the month?

7 day estimate from GFS and ECM at the beginning of the month. Then I mainly use the met offices further outlook for guidance on the remaining days. Like @Quicksilver1989, I tend to err towards the warmer side of any estimates too, just because that's how most months go nowadays.

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2 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

7 day estimate from GFS and ECM at the beginning of the month. Then I mainly use the met offices further outlook for guidance on the remaining days. Like @Quicksilver1989, I tend to err towards the warmer side of any estimates too, just because that's how most months go nowadays.

I used to look at the Met Office but after their poor showing in the winter, tried to use my imagination more, i go for models / ensembles out to 2 weeks and like you erred towards warmer in summer after my winter failures but that cost me in late spring / Early summer, also try to temper that a little because you never know when a whopping downward correction will do for you.

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The EWP came in provisionally at 72 mm. 

Based on that, the top scores for July were

score _ fcst __ forecaster

10.0 __ 72.0 __ Jeff C

 9.8 ___73.0 __ Let It Snow!

 9.6 ___71.0 __ Jonboy (9.8 - 0.2 late one day)

 9.4 ___ 73.1 __ Midlands Ice Age

 

and the top eight in the annual contest, very close at the top after July ...

59.9 __ Reef

59.8 __ Born From the Void

53.8 __ seaside60

52.9 __ weather-history

49.9 __ Mulzy, J10 (tied)

49.0 __ EdStone

48.8 __ Feb1991Blizzard

_____________________________________

I have added the excel file showing all scoring. 

Final adjustments around 5th-6th. 

 

EWP20182019Julyb.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith
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On 02/08/2019 at 18:18, Roger J Smith said:

The EWP came in provisionally at 72 mm. 

Based on that, the top scores for July were

score _ fcst __ forecaster

10.0 __ 72.0 __ Jeff C

 9.8 ___73.0 __ Let It Snow!

 9.6 ___71.0 __ Jonboy (9.8 - 0.2 late one day)

 9.4 ___ 73.1 __ Midlands Ice Age

 

and the top eight in the annual contest, very close at the top after July ...

59.9 __ Reef

59.8 __ Born From the Void

53.8 __ seaside60

52.9 __ weather-history

49.9 __ Mulzy, J10 (tied)

49.0 __ EdStone

48.8 __ Feb1991Blizzard

_____________________________________

I have added the excel file showing all scoring. 

Final adjustments around 5th-6th. 

 

EWP20182019Julyb.xlsx 118.09 kB · 1 download

How exciting I got something right!!!

Was a bus ride out on the CET though!

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The EWP average for 1981-2010 was 67.3 mm and for 1989-2018 it was 69.8 mm. The 1961-90 average was 62 mm.

The provisional total of 72 mm is therefore a little above those values, but quite close to the most recent average. 

The regional breakdown according to the EWP trackers looks like this:

Region ____ July 2019 ____ 1961-90 normal ____ Percentage

NW Eng ______ 106 ___________ 72 _____________ 147

NE Eng _______ 86 ____________58 _____________ 148

Central Eng ____ 70 ___________ 52 ______________134

SW Eng Wales _ 44 ____________ 59 ______________ 75

SE Eng _______ 50 ____________ 48 _____________ 105

... 

So, there was considerably more relative to normal in the north (those percentages would all be somewhat lower for more recent normals).

 

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5 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

The EWP average for 1981-2010 was 67.3 mm and for 1989-2018 it was 69.8 mm. The 1961-90 average was 62 mm.

The provisional total of 72 mm is therefore a little above those values, but quite close to the most recent average. 

The regional breakdown according to the EWP trackers looks like this:

Region ____ July 2019 ____ 1961-90 normal ____ Percentage

NW Eng ______ 106 ___________ 72 _____________ 147

NE Eng _______ 86 ____________58 _____________ 148

Central Eng ____ 70 ___________ 52 ______________134

SW Eng Wales _ 44 ____________ 59 ______________ 75

SE Eng _______ 50 ____________ 48 _____________ 105

... 

So, there was considerably more relative to normal in the north (those percentages would all be somewhat lower for more recent normals).

 

It does seem to confirm that without a radical change in August output we could be headed for quite a wet summer total then.

Where do we stand in terms of the 2013-2018 totals to be the wettest since 2012.

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For EWP as a whole, the year has been middle of the pack. To date (counting the 72 mm in July) the total is 474.7 mm, that is below 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2017, and marginally above 2018. It is slightly ahead of 2015 and about 20% more than 2013 (through July). 

I would imagine in northern England it may be closer to the high end of the recent range. 

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Hadley EWP posted now as 72.2 mm. 

Slight changes to scoring as some of the ties based on 72.0 mm are now separated. But it didn't change any annual positions.

Best combined forecasts are Diagonal Red Line (1st CET, 7th EWP, total 8..) and EdStone (5th, 6th, total 11). 

Hadley EWP also updated several other months earlier in 2019 making slight changes to "ultimate scoring" section.

Updated scoring file:

 

EWP20182019Julyb.xlsx

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