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July 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests


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16.9c to the 21st

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 16.9 to the 17th, 18th, 20th & 21st

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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Monthly Three players got it spot on this month. DiagonalRedLine, Leo97t and Quicksilver1989, with a further three players 0.1c out, B87, EdStone and seaside60. Seasonal Very close bet

The EWP came in provisionally at 72 mm.  Based on that, the top scores for July were score _ fcst __ forecaster 10.0 __ 72.0 __ Jeff C  9.8 ___73.0 __ Let It Snow!  9.6 ___71.

July confirmed as 17.5c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

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EWP had reached 26 mm after 20th, probably around 32 mm now after heavy rainfalls in northwest, otherwise rather dry since that value posted. Next nine days on GFS 12z showing about 30 mm potential, once again heavier in north. Final values could now be boosted into 60s towards 70 mm (a provisional table was posted for 70 mm earlier). The GFS tendency is to go a bit high sometimes but many are still in the game at this point. 

CET seems headed for about 18.0 to 18.5, if we assume an average of 21 today to 31st, blended with current value of 16.9, that gives 18.5, likely to be a downward correction and the average may fall a bit short of 21 although not much.

 

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17.1c to the 22nd

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 17.1c to the 22nd

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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EWP had reached 29 mm by 21st, likely same now as 22nd essentially dry. GFS 12z accumulations by end of 31st are quite variable with heavy amounts over higher portions of northern and central England but relatively little shown around coastal areas. Blend is about 30 mm on average but hard to say what it will translate into for EWP tracking, anyway, if you are between 40 and 70 mm you have a chance of finishing high, would speculate. 

Meanwhile, with the current heat wave setting in, here are the four daily records apparently under threat ...

23 Jul ... 22.4 (1989) 
24 Jul ... 23.9 (1818)
25 Jul ... 22.7 (2006)
26 Jul ... 23.2 (2006)

Those are not as high as the really warm record set in July 2006 and also 2016 which came earlier (19th and 20th, 24.5 and 23.5) and are safe for now. 

Glad to see we moved past the 1868 record highs (21st-22nd were 23.1, 23.2) also.

We broke the 27th July record last year at 22.5 (the weakest of the four consecutive previously from July 1948). 25.2 on 29th July 1948 is the absolute extreme followed by 24.9 on the first of August, 1995. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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17.3c to the 23rd

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 17.3c to the 23rd

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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19 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Meanwhile, with the current heat wave setting in, here are the four daily records apparently under threat ...

23 Jul ... 22.4 (1989) 
24 Jul ... 23.9 (1818)
25 Jul ... 22.7 (2006)
26 Jul ... 23.2 (2006)

Those are not as high as the really warm record set in July 2006 and also 2016 which came earlier (19th and 20th, 24.5 and 23.5) and are safe for now. 

Glad to see we moved past the 1868 record highs (21st-22nd were 23.1, 23.2) also.

We broke the 27th July record last year at 22.5 (the weakest of the four consecutive previously from July 1948). 25.2 on 29th July 1948 is the absolute extreme followed by 24.9 on the first of August, 1995. 

Provisional reading for the 23rd is 22.8C, so that's one out of four (subject to corrections).

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17.5c to the 24th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 17.5c to the 24th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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The 24th record from 1818 seems to have survived, today probably making a run at the all-time daily record.

EWP after 23 days was up to 36 mm, likely stayed there after 24 days. GFS accumulated rainfall to end of July is quite variable over the grid but appears to average 25-30 mm, suggesting outcome 61-66 mm. 

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Sunny Sheffield at 17.4C +1.3C yesterdays should have been 17.2C. Guess the heat is getting to me. Rainfall unchanged.

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Sunny Sheffield at 17.8C +1.6C above normal. Rainfall 30.6mm 53.7% of the monthly average. Chances of a dry month have gone up since last nights storms failed to appear. Uncertainty over the weekends rain as well. Not sure how much higher our average temp will go. At the moment things suggest today should be the last rise and small drop for the rest of the month.

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17.8c to the 25th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 17.8c to the 25th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

image.thumb.png.a1770c9c086515dd01afc5f719ba5042.png

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

image.thumb.png.70fc76d12ce1605549af94420fa813fb.pngimage.thumb.png.0485b973707b203ac43d3ede4def9d43.png   

As the heatwave winds down, we return to close to average values for the final 5 days., with a finish close to 17.7C quite likely.

The 25th value of 24.7C is provisionally the joint 3rd warmest CET day on record. Below are the top 5

1st _ 25.2C: 29th July 1948
2nd _ 24.9C: 1st August 1995
3rd _ 24.7C: 4th July 1976 (25th July 2019)
5th _ 24.6C: 3rd July 1976; 2nd August 1995; 1st July 2015

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9 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

image.thumb.png.a1770c9c086515dd01afc5f719ba5042.png

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

image.thumb.png.70fc76d12ce1605549af94420fa813fb.pngimage.thumb.png.0485b973707b203ac43d3ede4def9d43.png   

As the heatwave winds down, we return to close to average values for the final 5 days., with a finish close to 17.7C quite likely.

The 25th value of 24.7C is provisionally the joint 3rd warmest CET day on record. Below are the top 5

1st _ 25.2C: 29th July 1948
2nd _ 24.9C: 1st August 1995
3rd _ 24.7C: 4th July 1976 (25th July 2019)
5th _ 24.6C: 3rd July 1976; 2nd August 1995; 1st July 2015

I guessed a CET of 17.5C for the month ?

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I guessed a CET of 17.5C for the month ?

your favourite then, i get it if there is no correction at all based on bftv's GFS post, unusual if no correction, could be just a 0.1 of course which means you and me share first place.

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18.0c to the 26th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.0c to the 26th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

18.0c to the 26th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.0c to the 26th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

Looking very good for a decent finish for me now. 17.7 - not saying i will win it but surely i will be very close.

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21 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

The likely outcome now(imo)

To early to say, todays could be as low as 15.5 but then most of the rest could be as high as 18c or above, i am more likely to bust on the high side i must admit but not out of the question i could win or even bust on the low side.

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