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Roger J Smith

July 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests

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16.8c to the 16th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.8 to the 16th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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Blimey - Now thinking its not infeasible that i could bust on the low side given the forecasts - really not sure what people moaning about this month expect, its massively below average rainfall and now significantly above average temps, the only people who should be moaning by the end of this month is people who hate heat like me, thats like me getting 12 inches of snow from a marginal battleground setup in winter and moaning it wasn't -10c, mind you i could be close to winning the CET so every cloud has a silver lining.

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Sunny Sheffield up 16.7C +1.1C above normal. Rainfall at 6.4mm 11,2% of the monthly average

Well we could have a horrid hot spell coming up. That will bung the averages up a bit.

Edited by The PIT

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EWP was still only 6 mm through 15th and probably also yesterday, today will add a few (so it has probably now passed the all-time July minimum of 8 mm) ... 12z GFS suggests around 30 mm to come in next ten days, that projection misses some of today's rain so let's say 35 mm more to 27th 12z, then perhaps 5-10 more after that. Still looks plausible that 50 mm would be a rough estimate, but if you want to compare the previous excel projection to 70 mm, here it is (if final total is 60 mm your change of position will be less dramatic). 

Also, looking quite warm now to end of month, could see a run towards 18 as final value (needs to average almost 20 from now on to get there, assuming 17.0 by 20th, eleven days at 19.9 produce an average of 18.0). 

EWP20182019Julyb.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith

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If someone has guessed around 17.5 then a finish around 18 would be good.

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16.9c to the 17th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.9 to the 17th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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Its starting to look like we could finish well above average. I would not be surprised to see us into the 18s at this rate.

Edited by reef

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3 hours ago, reef said:

Its starting to look like we could finish well above average. I would not be surprised to see us into the 18s at this rate.

This month is quietly working its way up the rankings, with the heat coming at just the right time next week to lift it well over 17C. Including last year I believe there have only been 9 Julys over 18C on record, so it would be a very noteworthy month if it gets there. After all the moaning in mid June of this summer being worse than 2007, 2012 etc...

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Sunny Sheffield up to 16.9C +1.3C. Rainfall just 7.4mm 13% of the monthly average. Despite little rain the garden is growing very happily.

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Sunny Sheffield still at 16.9C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall 7.4mm 13% of the monthly average.

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16.9c to the 18th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 16.9 to the 17th & 18th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

image.thumb.png.f80b63e41561ee52c88484fd990ab99a.png

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

   image.thumb.png.b3eb4f7dbbac04167ab844b8db0b34ce.png  image.thumb.png.d4f2c1804a6b0f491b9078b082dca2b4.png 

Anyone up for beating the old warmest CET day on record 4 times in a row? The 06z GFS certainly is! Quite possibly the warmest spell I've seen forecast within the 7 day window. Would easily set a whole new standard for British heatwaves.
In the meantime though, slightly above average this weekend before things begin to properly warm up from Monday.

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Christ, that would be a rapid warm up CET wise.

Worth saying that the 0z Euro and UKMO did not support that of course.

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2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

image.thumb.png.f80b63e41561ee52c88484fd990ab99a.png

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

   image.thumb.png.b3eb4f7dbbac04167ab844b8db0b34ce.png  image.thumb.png.d4f2c1804a6b0f491b9078b082dca2b4.png 

Anyone up for beating the old warmest CET day on record 4 times in a row? The 06z GFS certainly is! Quite possibly the warmest spell I've seen forecast within the 7 day window. Would easily set a whole new standard for British heatwaves.
In the meantime though, slightly above average this weekend before things begin to properly warm up from Monday.

Absolute madness if that comes off.  Things are changing and rapidly folks....  It’s frightening!

Edited by Don

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Two 18.5C+ Julys in a row would be quite something. If July did manage to finish on 18.5C, then August would then only need 17.3C to take this summer into the top 20 in the CET series.

Warm summers often come in twos so who knows?

 

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49 minutes ago, reef said:

Two 18.5C+ Julys in a row would be quite something. If July did manage to finish on 18.5C, then August would then only need 17.3C to take this summer into the top 20 in the CET series.

Warm summers often come in twos so who knows?

 

What would also make it notable would be the fact that the first two thirds of July have been fairly unremarkable.  To finish with a CET in the mid to high 18’s would be something this month.  What is certain is that my 17.2C guess will be way out!

Edited by Don

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